区域流量历时曲线构建及其不确定性分析
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摘要
根据流量值与流域空间特征的相关关系来构建区域流量历时曲线,对由东江流域中的13个子流域所组成的区域研究发现,各个指定相对历时下的流量值与流域面积和坡度的幂函数相关关系较好。运用Jack-knife检验方法验证所得到的区域流量历时曲线模拟结果,有9个站的确定性系数达0.95以上,尤其在非洪水和非枯水部分拟合精度较高。利用Bootstrap重抽样方法对所得到的区域流量历时曲线进行不确定性分析,发现其不确定性范围较小,且大多数区间对实测值和由系数均值得到的合成流量历时曲线包含得较好。表明采用本文所建议的方法可以得到精度良好的区域流量历时曲线,并可将其推广到广大的无实测流量资料地区。
Regional flow duration curves(FDC) are generated by using direct correlation of discharge with catchment characteristics,and the results of Dongjiang watershed of 13 sub-basins show a good power function relationship of flow rate versus drainage area and watershed slope.Jack-knife testing method is used to verify the accuracy of these curves,and the calculated deterministic coefficients at 9 stations among the tested 13 stations are greater than 0.95,with particularly excellent fitting accuracy of the non-flood and non-low flow duration.An uncertainty analysis of all the regional FDCs by the bootstrap resampling technique reveals that the range of uncertainty is narrow and that in most calculation intervals the observed values are well contained within the synthetic FDC calculated by the mean coefficients.This work shows that the regional FDC may be generated by the proposed method with good accuracy and it can be extended to other ungauged sites.
Regional flow duration curves(FDC) are generated by using direct correlation of discharge with catchment characteristics,and the results of Dongjiang watershed of 13 sub-basins show a good power function relationship of flow rate versus drainage area and watershed slope.Jack-knife testing method is used to verify the accuracy of these curves,and the calculated deterministic coefficients at 9 stations among the tested 13 stations are greater than 0.95,with particularly excellent fitting accuracy of the non-flood and non-low flow duration.An uncertainty analysis of all the regional FDCs by the bootstrap resampling technique reveals that the range of uncertainty is narrow and that in most calculation intervals the observed values are well contained within the synthetic FDC calculated by the mean coefficients.This work shows that the regional FDC may be generated by the proposed method with good accuracy and it can be extended to other ungauged sites.
引文
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[2]黄国如.利用区域流量历时曲线模拟东江流域无资料地区的日径流过程[J].水力发电学报,2007,26(4):29～35.(inChinese)HUANG Guoru.Daily flow hydrograph simulation using regional flow duration curves for ungauged region of Dongjiang basin[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2007,26(4):29～35.
[3]Yu P S,Yang T C.Using synthetic flow duration curves for rainfall-runoff model calibration at ungauged sites[J].HydrologicalProcess,2000,14:117～133.
[4]Quimpo R G,Alejandrino A A,Mcnally T A.Regionalized flow duration for Philippines[J].Journal of Water Resources Planningand Management,1983,109(4):320～330.
[5]Mimikou M,Kaemaki S.Regionalization of flow duration characteristics[J].Journal of Hydrology,1985,82:77～91.
[6]Yu P S,yang T C.Synthetic regional flow duration curve for southern Taiwan[J].Hydrological Process,1996,10:373～391.
[7]Yu P S,Yang T C.A regional model of low flow for southern Taiwan[J].Hydrological Processes.2002,16:2017～2034.
[8]Yu P S,Yang T C.Uncertainty analysis of regional flow duration curves[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning andManagement,2002,128(6):424～430.
[9]Peter H,Abhinanda S.Bootstrap methods in statistics:Resampling[J]Resonance.2000,9:41～48.
[10]陈汉尧,胡聿贤.不确定性的Bootstrap估计及其应用[J].地震工程与工程振动.1994,14(1):1～7.CHEN Hanyao,HU Yuxian.Bootstrap estimation of uncertainty and its application[J].Earthquake Engineering and EngineeringVibration,1994,14(1):1～7.(in Chinese)
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