基于突变理论的油浸式变压器过热性故障预测方法
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摘要
变压器过热性故障在变压器故障中出现的几率最高,对其预测方法的研究具有重要的工程实际意义。选取选变压器的温度为状态变量,C2H4/C2H6和CH4/H2为控制变量,建立一个变压器过热故障的尖点突变模型,通过大量的变压器过热故障案例数据对该模型能否区分不同状态的过热故障进行验证。在此基础上,提出一个基于突变理论的油浸式变压器剩余寿命预测方法,该方法能对发生潜伏性过热故障变压器的损坏时间进行预测。最后,采用两个实际案例的数据进行验证,结果证明了所提方法的实用性和有效性。
The transformer over-hot fault is the most common among all kinds of transformer faults,so it is important to research the transformer over-hot fault.This paper presented a cusp catastrophe model of the transformer over-hot fault,in that the temperature of the transformer was selected as state variable and C2H4/C2H6 and CH4/H2 were chosen as control variables,the validity of this model was proved through a large number of transformer over-hot data.On the basis,the methodology of forecasting the oil-immersed transformer remaining life was presented based on catastrophe theory,by which the failure time of over-hot transformer cold be forecasted,and which was verified through two actual case of transformer.The availability and applicability of the proposed mothod was proved.
The transformer over-hot fault is the most common among all kinds of transformer faults,so it is important to research the transformer over-hot fault.This paper presented a cusp catastrophe model of the transformer over-hot fault,in that the temperature of the transformer was selected as state variable and C2H4/C2H6 and CH4/H2 were chosen as control variables,the validity of this model was proved through a large number of transformer over-hot data.On the basis,the methodology of forecasting the oil-immersed transformer remaining life was presented based on catastrophe theory,by which the failure time of over-hot transformer cold be forecasted,and which was verified through two actual case of transformer.The availability and applicability of the proposed mothod was proved.
引文
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[15]陈伟根,吴娅,刘强.基于突变理论的断路器运行状态模糊综合评判方法[J].高压电器,2007,43(2):127-135.Chen Weigen,WuYa,LiuQiang.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the high voltage circuit breaker condition based on catastrophe theory[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2007,43(2):127-135(in Chinese).
[16]贺广零.突变理论新解及其在桩基工程中的应用[J].工程力学,2009,26(9):126-137.He Guangling.New catastrophe theory&its application in pile foundation engineering[J].Engineering Mechanics,2009,26(9):126-137(in Chinese).
[17]柏冠军,吴汉宁,赵希刚,等.突变理论在地震资料解释中的应用[J].煤田地质与勘探,2007,35(1):67-70.Bai Guanjun,Wu Hanning,Zhao Xigang,et al.Application of catastrophe theory in seismic data interpretation[J].Coal Geology&Exploration,2007,35(1):67-70(in Chinese).
[18]陈涛,陈森发.基于突变理论的拥挤控制模型研究[J].系统工程学报,2006,21(6):598-604.Chen Tao,Chen Senfa.Research on models of congestion control based on catastrophe theory[J].Journal of Systems Ergineering,2006,21(6):598-604(in Chinese).
[2]朱永利,吴立增,李雪玉.贝叶斯分类器与粗糙集相结合的变压器综合故障诊断[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(10):159-165.Zhu Yongli,Wu Lizeng,Li Xueyu.Synthesized diagnosis on transformer faults based on Bayesian[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2005,25(10):159-165(in Chinese).
[3]彭宁云,文习山,王一,等.基于线性分类器的充油变压器潜伏性故障诊断方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(6):147-151.Peng Ningyun,Wen Xishan,Wang Yi et al.A potential fault diagnosismethod based on linear classifier for oil-immersed transformer[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2004,24(6):147-151(in Chinese).
[4]孙辉,李卫东,孙启忠.判决树方法用于变压器故障诊断的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,21(2):50-55.Sun Hui,Li Weidong,Sun Qizhong.Electric power transformer fault diagnosis using decision tree[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2001,21(2):50-55(in Chinese).
[5]Rogers R R.IEEE and IEC codes to interpret incipient faults in transformers using gas in oil analysis[J].IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation,1978,13(5):349-354.
[6]桑博德.突变理论入门[M].凌复华,译.上海:上海交通大学出版社,1983:5-17.Saunders P T.An introduction to catastrophe theory[M].Lin Fuhua,Translated.Shanghai:Shanghai Jiaotong University Press,1983:5-17(in Chinese).
[7]凌复华.突变论及其应用[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1987:65-92.Lin Fuhua.Catastrophe theory and its appli-cations[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Jiaotong University Press,1987:65-92(in Chinese).
[8]Ian Stewart.Elementary catastrophe theory[J].IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems,1983,30(8):578-586.
[9]Sallam A A,Dineley J L.Catastrophe theory as a tool for determining synchronous power system dynamic stability[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems,1983,102(3):622-630.
[10]Sallam A A.Power system steady state stability assessment using catastrophe theory[J].IEE Proceedings of Generation,Transmission&Distribution,1988,135(3):189-194.
[11]Sallam A A.Power systems transient stability assessment using catastrophe theory.IEE Proceedings of Generation,Transmission&Distribution,1989,136(2):108-114.
[12]Wvong M D,Mihirig A M.Catastrophe theory applied to transient 106中国电机工程学报第31卷stability assessment of power systems[J].IEE Proceedings of Generation,Transmission&Distribution,1986,133(6):314-318.
[13]Mihirig A M,Wvong M D.Transient stability analysis of multimachine power systems by catastrophe theory[J].IEE Proceedings of Generation,Transmission&Distribution,1989,136(4):254-258.
[14]Yan Zheng,Huang Yuansheng,Qi Jianxun,et al.2005 Application of catastrophe theory in power system[J].Proceedings of IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference&Exhibition:Asia and Pacific Dalian.Dalian,China:IEEE,2005:1-4.
[15]陈伟根,吴娅,刘强.基于突变理论的断路器运行状态模糊综合评判方法[J].高压电器,2007,43(2):127-135.Chen Weigen,WuYa,LiuQiang.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the high voltage circuit breaker condition based on catastrophe theory[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2007,43(2):127-135(in Chinese).
[16]贺广零.突变理论新解及其在桩基工程中的应用[J].工程力学,2009,26(9):126-137.He Guangling.New catastrophe theory&its application in pile foundation engineering[J].Engineering Mechanics,2009,26(9):126-137(in Chinese).
[17]柏冠军,吴汉宁,赵希刚,等.突变理论在地震资料解释中的应用[J].煤田地质与勘探,2007,35(1):67-70.Bai Guanjun,Wu Hanning,Zhao Xigang,et al.Application of catastrophe theory in seismic data interpretation[J].Coal Geology&Exploration,2007,35(1):67-70(in Chinese).
[18]陈涛,陈森发.基于突变理论的拥挤控制模型研究[J].系统工程学报,2006,21(6):598-604.Chen Tao,Chen Senfa.Research on models of congestion control based on catastrophe theory[J].Journal of Systems Ergineering,2006,21(6):598-604(in Chinese).
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