西宁周边地区地震窗口预报方法研究
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摘要
选取青藏高原北部的西宁及周边区域(34°—40°N,96°—104°E),以1°为步长,3°×3°作为窗口,进行空间扫描得出24个研究窗口,采用MAPSIS软件,进行各项地震学参数的计算,将计算结果与窗口中心点周边300 km以内的中强地震进行对照,发现9项地震活动性参数与周边Ms≥5.5地震有明显对应关系,且在2008年汶川8.0级和2010年玉树7.1级地震前大多有明显的异常反映。同时,时间差与震中距之间,有近似线性的拟合关系,而与震级之间的线性拟合关系较差。
In this paper,the area surrounding Xining(34°—40°N,96°—104°E) which located in the northern Tibetan Plateau is selected for study.We obtained 24 study windows by scanning the area space with the step by 1° and the window by 3°×3° respectively.We calculated the seismological parameters by MAPSIS software,and then made a comparative study between the calculation and the strong earthquakes within 300 km of the windows.We found that there was obvious correspondence between the nine seismic activity parameters changes of35°—38°N,100°—103°E window and the earthquakes M_s≥5.5 less than 300 km,and the same abnormal changes were appeared before 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake and 2010Yushu 7.1 earthquake.At the same time,we found that there was a near linear fitting relationship between the time difference which was from earthquake origin time to abnormal changes and epicentral distance,on this basis,a semi-quantitative prediction index was put forward.
In this paper,the area surrounding Xining(34°—40°N,96°—104°E) which located in the northern Tibetan Plateau is selected for study.We obtained 24 study windows by scanning the area space with the step by 1° and the window by 3°×3° respectively.We calculated the seismological parameters by MAPSIS software,and then made a comparative study between the calculation and the strong earthquakes within 300 km of the windows.We found that there was obvious correspondence between the nine seismic activity parameters changes of35°—38°N,100°—103°E window and the earthquakes M_s≥5.5 less than 300 km,and the same abnormal changes were appeared before 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake and 2010Yushu 7.1 earthquake.At the same time,we found that there was a near linear fitting relationship between the time difference which was from earthquake origin time to abnormal changes and epicentral distance,on this basis,a semi-quantitative prediction index was put forward.
引文
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张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
程万正.前兆地震活动“窗口”或敏感部位的寻找及有效性估计[J].地震研究,1984,6:657-666.
刘小凤,梅秀萍,张小美.青藏高原北部地区地震窗口特征及其预报意义[J].西北地震学报,2003,4:359-364
陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都地图出版社,2002.
魏富胜,张嘉延,谷继成.华北地区地震活动度的研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1990,11(3):44-55.
张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
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