基于防灾规划的城市自然灾害风险分析与评估研究进展
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摘要
城市自然灾害风险分析与评估关系到城市灾害预警、预案、灾害风险管理、城市防灾规划等诸多方面,是城市安全和人类安身的基础。该文从城市防灾规划的需要出发,首先,定义了基于防灾规划的城市自然灾害风险分析与评估的内涵,针对城市防灾规划的特点和自然灾害风险分析的评价目标,构建基于防灾规划的城市自然灾害评估模型与评估流程。其次,将风险分析过程分为致灾因子分析、暴露性分析、脆弱性分析3部分,并介绍了常用的评估方法。最后提出:服务于防灾规划的城市自然灾害风险研究,应搭建时空桥梁,强化自然灾害风险评估成果在城市防灾规划中的应用;着重将多灾种风险评估服务于综合规划,单灾种风险评估服务于专项规划;通过完善评估模型,合理运用GIS、RS等技术深化自然灾害风险分析评估在城市防灾规划中的应用。
Urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment has a closely relationship with the urban disaster early-warning,urban disaster pre-arranged plan,urban disaster risk arrangement and urban disaster prevention plan,which means urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment is the base of habitat for human and city security.Firstly,after defining urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment based on urban disaster prevention plan,this paper structures the process of urban natural disaster risk analysis model and assessment process,aiming to meet characters of urban disaster prevention and criteria of natural disaster risk analysis.Then,the risk analysis procedures are classified into hazard analysis,exposure analysis and frangibility analysis,and provides introductions about ordinary methodology of assessment.In the end,based on all the analysis above,the vision and direction of future research is put forward.The proposal for the urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment serving for urban disaster prevention plan is as followed:Firstly,temporal and spatial tools should be used to combine disaster risk assessment and urban disaster prevention plan;Secondly,multi-disaster risk assessment is used for comprehensive disaster prevention plan while single disaster risk assessment is to deal with specialized disaster prevention plan;Thirdly,on one hand,assessment should be improved,on the other hand,the application of GIS and RS should be paid fully attention.
Urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment has a closely relationship with the urban disaster early-warning,urban disaster pre-arranged plan,urban disaster risk arrangement and urban disaster prevention plan,which means urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment is the base of habitat for human and city security.Firstly,after defining urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment based on urban disaster prevention plan,this paper structures the process of urban natural disaster risk analysis model and assessment process,aiming to meet characters of urban disaster prevention and criteria of natural disaster risk analysis.Then,the risk analysis procedures are classified into hazard analysis,exposure analysis and frangibility analysis,and provides introductions about ordinary methodology of assessment.In the end,based on all the analysis above,the vision and direction of future research is put forward.The proposal for the urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment serving for urban disaster prevention plan is as followed:Firstly,temporal and spatial tools should be used to combine disaster risk assessment and urban disaster prevention plan;Secondly,multi-disaster risk assessment is used for comprehensive disaster prevention plan while single disaster risk assessment is to deal with specialized disaster prevention plan;Thirdly,on one hand,assessment should be improved,on the other hand,the application of GIS and RS should be paid fully attention.
引文
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[9]YOKOTA M,SENEQUE G.Identification of disaster risks inspatial planning for sustainable development:A case study inKosovo[A].Disaster Management and Human Health Risk:Reducing Risk,Improving Outcomes[C].2009.139-149.
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[14]霍治国,李世奎,王素艳,等.主要农业气象灾害风险评估技术及其应用研究[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(6):692-703.
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[21]刘智.城市抗灾力的内涵、度量模型与评估策略[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(4):136-141.
[22]章友德.城市灾害学[M].上海:上海大学出版社,2004.
[23]CHOWDHURY P,FENTJE M,HAYNE D G.Strategies forquantitative landslide hazard assessment[A].Instability:Planning and Management:Seeking Sustainable Solutions toGround Movement Problems[C].2002.219-228.
[24]武强,陈佩佩.地裂缝灾害研究现状与展望[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(1):22-25.
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[26]谢之康,范维澄,王清安.火灾过程与复杂性[J].科学(中文版),1998(2):7-9.
[27]史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报,1991(自然灾害研究专辑):37-42.
[28]尹占娥.城市自然灾害风险评估与实证研究[D].华东师范大学,2009.
[29]孙峥.城市自然灾害定量评估方法及应用[D].中国海洋大学,2008.
[30]董亮,周锡元,霍达,等.大城市土地利用优化与抗震防灾规划[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(3):100-103.
[31]宫清华,黄光庆,郭敏,等.基于GIS的广东省洪涝灾害风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):58-63.
[32]胡蓓蓓,姜衍祥,周俊,等.天津市滨海地区地面沉降灾害风险评估与区划[J].地理科学,2008,28(5):693-697.
[33]李彦宝.基于GIS的地质灾害风险评估系统研发与应用[D].中国地质大学,2008.
[34]UNITED NATIONS DISASTER RELIEF ORGANIZATION.Mitigating Natural Disasters:Phenomena,Effects and Op-tions:A Manual for Policy Makers and Planners[R].NewYork:United Nations,1991.
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[40]何川,刘功智,任智刚.国外灾害风险评估模型对比分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(5):148-153.
[41]史培军,叶涛,王静爱,等.论自然灾害风险的综合行政管理[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2006(5):130-136.
[42]王江波.我国城市综合防灾规划编制方法研究[J].规划师,2007,23(1):53-55.
[43]苏桂武,高庆华.自然灾害风险的分析要素[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):272-279.
[44]景垠娜.自然灾害风险评估[D].上海师范大学,2010.
[45]张俊香,黄崇福.四川地震灾害致灾因子风险分析[J].热带地理,2009,29(3):280-284.
[46]杨秋珍,徐明,李军.对气象致灾因子危险度诊断方法的探讨[J].气象学报,2010,68(2):277-284.
[47]詹道江,邹进上.可能最大暴露与洪水[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1983.
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