基于应变释放阶段的华北第三、四活动期地震幕划分
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摘要
华北地区第三、四活动期强震应变释放存在起始—加速—平稳—高潮—调整的阶段性特征.结合两个活动期M≥6地震时序特征和应变释放的阶段性特点,将华北地区第三活动期划分为4个平静幕和5个活跃幕,将第四活动期迄今划分为4个平静幕和4个活跃幕.认为两个活动期相应活跃幕在时间进程上有较好的一致性,反映了一个地震活动期内的强震活动规律,可以对比并预测未来的强震活动.
Strain release of strong earthquakes in the 3rd and 4th active periods in North China has phase characteristics as start-speed-smooth-climax-adjustment.Combining the timing characteristics and strain release phase feature of M≥6 earthquakes in the two active periods,the 3rd active period in North China is divided into 4 quiescence episodes and 5 active episodes,while the 4th into 4 quiescence episodes and 4 active episodes.The corresponding active episodes of the two active periods have good consistency in timing process,which reflects the law of strong earthquakes in a seismic active period,which allow us to compare and predict the future strong earthquakes.
Strain release of strong earthquakes in the 3rd and 4th active periods in North China has phase characteristics as start-speed-smooth-climax-adjustment.Combining the timing characteristics and strain release phase feature of M≥6 earthquakes in the two active periods,the 3rd active period in North China is divided into 4 quiescence episodes and 5 active episodes,while the 4th into 4 quiescence episodes and 4 active episodes.The corresponding active episodes of the two active periods have good consistency in timing process,which reflects the law of strong earthquakes in a seismic active period,which allow us to compare and predict the future strong earthquakes.
引文
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[24] 苏刚,许绍燮,麻水歧,等.大华北新构造运动和地震活动“成片迁移”的成因探讨[J].地球物理学报,1990,33(3) :278～290． Su G,Xu S X,Ma S Q,et al.The cause of new tectonic movement and migration of earthquakes in groups in and around North China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1990,33(3) :278～290．
[2] 蒋铭,张国民,姜秀娥.地震活动的时间层次结构[J].中国地震,1991,7(3) :42～53． Jiang M,Zhang G M,Jiang X E.Stratification structures of durations for seismic activity[J].Earthquake Research in China,1991,7(3) :42～53．
[3] 蒋铭,马宗晋.华北第三、四活跃期的对比[J].地震,1985,(6) :5～11． Jiang M,Ma Z J.A comparison between the third and fourth seismic periods in North China[J].Earthquake,1985,(6) :5～11．
[4] 陈荣华.华北第三地震活动期和第四地震活动期的相似性[J].地震,1992,(6) :32～36． Chen R H.Similarity between the 3rd and 4th seismically active periods in North China[J].Earthquake,1992,(6) :32～36．
[5] 陈荣华.华北地震区地震平静幕持续时间的变化及其解释[J].地震研究,1994,17(4) :407～412． Chen R H.Variation of duration time of seismic quiescence episodes in North China seismic region and its interpretation[J].Journal of seismological research,1994,17(4) :407～412．
[6] 李文英.最大熵谱法在华北地震活动幕式结构分析中的应用[J].地震,1996,16(2) :121～127． Li W Y.Application of the maximum entropy analysis to the episodic structure analysls for earthquake activity in North China[J].Earthquake,1996,16(2) :121～127．
[7] 汪良谋.华北强震时-空变化某些特点与近期强震活动趋势[J].地震地质,1987,9(2) :39～47． Wang L M.Some features of strong earthquake activity in space and time variation and recent seismically active trend in North China[J].Seismology and Geology,1987,9(2) :39～47．
[8] 夏浩明.大华北M≥4 3/4地震阶段性相对同步活动特征及其意义[J].地球物理学报,1987,30(3) :281～291． Xia H M.The significance and the character of the synchronous steps of M≥4 3/4 earthquakes in North China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1987,30(3) :281～291．
[9] 戴英华,金学申,李淑莲.聚类分析法在地震幕划分中的应用[J].地震,1987,(4) :31～38． Dai Y H,Jin X S,Li S L.Application of the clustering analysis method in dividing seismic episodes[J].Earthquake,1987,(4) :31～38．
[10] 陈章立,薛峰,吕培苓,等.唐山7． 8级强震孕育过程的地震活动性特征[J].西北地震学报,1981,3(4) :9～16． Chen Z L,Xue F,Lu P L,et al.Characteristics of seismicity associated with development of Tangshan earthquake(M_s7． 8) occurred on July 28,1976[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1981,3(4) :9～16．
[11] 张国民,马宗晋,蒋铭.华北强震规律的研究[J].中国地震,1988,4(3) :66～70． Zhang G M,Ma Z J,Jiang M.Research on the regularity of strong earthquakes in North China[J].Earthquake Research in China,1988,4(3) :66～70．
[12] 张立人,陈正位.地震活动期、幕最大地震M1的估计及中-长期地震趋势预测[J].地震,2001,21(1) :53～58． Zhang L R,Chen Z W.Estimate of maximum earthquake magnitude M1 for a seismic period or episode and medium long term earthquake trend prediction[J].Earthquake,2001,21(1) :53～58．
[13] 黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一[J].地震学报,1994,16(3) :273～280． Huang W Q,Li W X,Cao X F.Research on thecompleteness of earthquake data in the Chinese mainland(Ⅰ)[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1994,16(3) :273～280．
[14] 国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录[M].北京:地震出版社,1995． The Earthquake disaster prevention department of the state seismological bureau[M].Catalogue of Chinese historical strong earthquake.Beijing:Seismological Press,1995．
[15] 中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999． The Earthquake disaster prevention department of the state seismological bureau[M].Catalogue of later-day earthquake.Beijing:China Science and Technology Press,1999．
[16] 时振梁,曹学锋.历史地震目录修订问题[J].中国地震,1998,14(3) :1～5． Shi Z L,Cao X F.Discussion on amending and compiling the historical earthquake catalogue[J].Earthquake Research in China,1998,14(3) :1～5．
[17] 汪素云,吴戈,时振梁,等.《中国近代地震目录(公元1912年-1990年M_s≥4． 7) 》简介[J].中国地震,1998,14(3) :83～87． Wang S Y,Wu G,Shi Z L,et al.Brief introduction to the “Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes (1912～1990,M_s≥4． 7) ”[J].Earthquake Research in China,1998,14(3) :83～87．
[18] 张国民,傅征样.华北强震的时间分布及物理解释[J].地球物理学报,1985,28(6) :569～578． Zhang G M,Fu Z X.Time sequences of strong earthquakes in North China and their explanation[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1985,28(6) :569～578．
[19] 时振梁,环文林,曹新玲,等.中国地震活动的某些特征[J].地球物理学报,1974,17(1) :1～13． Shi Z L,Huan W L,Cao X L,et al.Some characters of the seismicity in Chinese mainland[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1974,17 (1) :1～13．
[20] 陈颙,于小红.岩石样品变形时的声发射[J].地球物理学报,1984,27(4) :392～401． Chen Y,Yu X H,Acoustic emission of rock specimen in deforming processes[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1984,27(4) :392～401．
[21] 梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993,265～269． Mei S R,Fen D Y,Zhang G M,et al.Earthquake prediction research in China[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1993,265～269．
[22] 张培震,邓启东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(S1) :12～20． Zhang P Z,Deng Q D,Zhang G M,et al.Active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the continent of China[J].Science in China(Series D) (in Chinese),2003,33(S1) :12～20．
[23] 张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3) :602～610． Zhang G M,Ma H S,Wang H,et al.Boundaries between active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the China mainland[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese),2005,48(3) :602～610．
[24] 苏刚,许绍燮,麻水歧,等.大华北新构造运动和地震活动“成片迁移”的成因探讨[J].地球物理学报,1990,33(3) :278～290． Su G,Xu S X,Ma S Q,et al.The cause of new tectonic movement and migration of earthquakes in groups in and around North China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1990,33(3) :278～290．
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