试述汶川8.0级地震我国“十五”地热观测网的映震情况
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摘要
2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震的地震异常信息是否在我国现有的技术手段中有明显的异常体现,引起了人们的思考。本文用收集到的全国"十五"地热观测网中的190个地热前兆观测点的数据资料,对汶川8.0级地震的映震情况进行分析。结果30个观测点震前有前兆异常,86个观测点有同震响应及震后调整。其中有前兆异常的观测点仅占16﹪,震中距≤1100km出现前兆异常观测点占全部异常点(30个)的77﹪,占震中距≤1100km观测点(83个)的28﹪。由此分析了我国地热观测的现状及预测实践中存在的不足。例如观测孔勘选不理想有待筛选改进,数据资源私有应在全国及时实现资源共享等问题。
May 12,2008 8.0 earthquake was not forecasted.Wether the big earthquake's seismic anomaly information is shown in our technical means has caused people to ponder.In this paper, the data of 190 observatories were collected from the national geothermal earthquake observation network, and an analysis was researched to see its reflecing abilities to the Wenchuan 8.0 Earthquake.30 observatories detected anomaly before the earthquake, 86 observatories along with or after the earthquake.Only 16% of the observatories detected the anomaly, those of epicentral distance ≤ 1100Km with anomalies take up 77%.From this result, the geothermal observation status and shortcomings of the forecasting are analyzed.For example, the observation hole survey is not satisfactory and should be improved, private data resources should be timely shared throughout the country and so on.
May 12,2008 8.0 earthquake was not forecasted.Wether the big earthquake's seismic anomaly information is shown in our technical means has caused people to ponder.In this paper, the data of 190 observatories were collected from the national geothermal earthquake observation network, and an analysis was researched to see its reflecing abilities to the Wenchuan 8.0 Earthquake.30 observatories detected anomaly before the earthquake, 86 observatories along with or after the earthquake.Only 16% of the observatories detected the anomaly, those of epicentral distance ≤ 1100Km with anomalies take up 77%.From this result, the geothermal observation status and shortcomings of the forecasting are analyzed.For example, the observation hole survey is not satisfactory and should be improved, private data resources should be timely shared throughout the country and so on.
引文
[1]车用太,鱼金子,刘成龙.汶川地震的异常及地震预测问题[J].防灾科技学院学报,2009,11(1):1-4.
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[3]国家地震局科技监测司.地震地下流体观测技术[M].北京:地震出版社,1995:80.
[4]付子忠.电子版地热前兆方法和观测技术[M].北京:中国地震局地壳应力研究所,2008:11.
[2]中国地震局监测预报司.地震地下流体理论基础与观测技术[M].北京:地震出版社,2007:61.
[3]国家地震局科技监测司.地震地下流体观测技术[M].北京:地震出版社,1995:80.
[4]付子忠.电子版地热前兆方法和观测技术[M].北京:中国地震局地壳应力研究所,2008:11.
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