基于岩体加卸载响应原理的强矿震危险性预测
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摘要
以抚顺老虎台矿田为工程背景,采用加卸载响应比理论,开展强矿震预测技术应用研究.研究表明:0≤ML≤0.5矿震在各开采深度作为加卸载响应震级的预测效能均较好,对于阶段峰值震级的平均预测信度为0.72;ML≥1.4矿震作为加卸载响应震级,具有深度尺度效应,响应震级与开采深度成正比,一般小于预测震级0.5～1.0,对于阶段峰值震级的平均预测信度0.60;0.6≤ML<1.4矿震作为加卸载响应震级的随机性较大,分析是两种不同机制矿震混合的结果,不适宜作为加卸载响应震级;开采深度越大,地应力环境强度越高,预测敏感性和效果越好.在阜新煤田和门头沟矿田进行普适性检验,预测信度分别为0.8和0.73.试验结果表明,加卸载响应比理论和方法预测强矿震具有较好的效能和应用前景.
Taking Laohutai Coal Mine in Fushun of northeastern China as an engineering background,an application study of strong mining-induced seismicity prediction was carried out on the basis of the load/unload response ratio(LURR) theory.It is shown that when the load/unload response magnitude adopts the mining-induced seismicity of 0≤ML≤0.5,the forecasting efficacy is very good in all mining depths and the average forecasting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0.72.When ML≥1.4,the response magnitude is direct proportion to mining depth,and is generally 0.5 to 1.0 lower than the predicted magnitude,while the average forecasting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0.60.When 0.6≤ML<1.4,there might be a mixture of two mining-induced seismicities with different mechanisms,which is not suitable to the load/unload response magnitude due to its wide randomness.With the increase of mining depth,the in-situ stress intensity is higher,and the prediction is better.According to universal tests in Fuxin Coal Field and Mentougou Mine,the forecasting reliability is 0.8 and 0.73,respectively.The results indicate that the LURR theory and methods have a good ability and a broad application in predicting strong mining-induced seismicity.
Taking Laohutai Coal Mine in Fushun of northeastern China as an engineering background,an application study of strong mining-induced seismicity prediction was carried out on the basis of the load/unload response ratio(LURR) theory.It is shown that when the load/unload response magnitude adopts the mining-induced seismicity of 0≤ML≤0.5,the forecasting efficacy is very good in all mining depths and the average forecasting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0.72.When ML≥1.4,the response magnitude is direct proportion to mining depth,and is generally 0.5 to 1.0 lower than the predicted magnitude,while the average forecasting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0.60.When 0.6≤ML<1.4,there might be a mixture of two mining-induced seismicities with different mechanisms,which is not suitable to the load/unload response magnitude due to its wide randomness.With the increase of mining depth,the in-situ stress intensity is higher,and the prediction is better.According to universal tests in Fuxin Coal Field and Mentougou Mine,the forecasting reliability is 0.8 and 0.73,respectively.The results indicate that the LURR theory and methods have a good ability and a broad application in predicting strong mining-induced seismicity.
引文
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[9]Yin X C.A new approach to earthquake prediction:load/unloadresponse ratio(LURR)theory.Mech Eng,2004,26(6):1(尹祥础.地震预报的新途径:加卸载响应比理论.力学与实践,2004,26(6):1)
[10]Li T,Chen S H.The mechanism of the self-similarity of theGutenburg-Richter relation:a km-scale in-situ observational in-vestigation//RaSiM7(2009):Controlling Seismic Hazard andSustainable Development of Deep Mines.Dalian,2009:1003
[2]Johnston J C,Einstein M H.A survey of mining associated seis-micity//Rockbursts and Seismicity in Mines:Proceedings of the2nd International Symposium.Minneapolis,1990:121
[3]Knoll P,Kuhnt W.Investigation of the mechanism of rockbursts byseismological measurements//Rockbursts,Global Experiences,In-ternational Bureau of Strata Mechanics.Hyderabad,1990:11
[4]Gaviglio P,Revalor R,Piguet J P,et al.Tectonic structures,stra-ta properties and rockbursts occurrence in French coal mine//Rockbursts and Seismicity in Mines:Proceedings of the 2nd Interna-tional Symposium.Minneapolis,1990:289
[5]Krishnamurthy R,Shringarputale S B.Rockburst hazard in KolarGold Fields//Rockbursts and Seismicity in Mines:Proceedings ofthe 2nd International Symposium.Minneapolis,1990:411
[6]Li T,Cai M F,Cai M.A discussion on the classification of min-ing-induced seismicity.Chin J Rock Mech Eng,2006,25(Suppl2):3679(李铁,蔡美峰,蔡明.采矿诱发地震分类的探讨.岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(增刊2):3679)
[7]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.The load-unload responseratio theory:a new approach to earthquake prediction.Chin J Geo-phys,1994,37(6):767(尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平,等.加卸载响应比:一种新的地震预报方法.地球物理学报,1994,37(6):767)
[8]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P.The development of load-unloadresponse ratio theory and its application to earthquake prediction.Chin J Geophys,1994,37(Suppl 1):223(尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平.加卸载响应比理论及其在地震预测中的应用研究进展.地球物理学报,1994,37(增刊1):223)
[9]Yin X C.A new approach to earthquake prediction:load/unloadresponse ratio(LURR)theory.Mech Eng,2004,26(6):1(尹祥础.地震预报的新途径:加卸载响应比理论.力学与实践,2004,26(6):1)
[10]Li T,Chen S H.The mechanism of the self-similarity of theGutenburg-Richter relation:a km-scale in-situ observational in-vestigation//RaSiM7(2009):Controlling Seismic Hazard andSustainable Development of Deep Mines.Dalian,2009:1003
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