大地震红外辐射异常信息时空特征分析
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摘要
寻找和确定大地震的临震信息是预测地震的关键.本文针对2008年5月12日中国四川汶川8.0级、2010年1月12日海地太子港7.3级、2月27日智利8.8级以及4月14日中国青海玉树7.1级等四次灾难性地震事件,分析了大震发生前震中附近地区卫星遥感射出长波辐射(OLR)信息的时空场分布及变化特征.发现在四次大震发生前1～2天,震中区附近的长波辐射强度都比其周围环境场有显著性差异.由此认为大震发生前有临近异常信息,通过遥感手段监测OLR信息场的时空变异特征,是预测预警大震的一种可能的技术途径.
To identify the precursors for impending strong earthquakes is critical for earthquake forecasting.This paper presents the temporal and spatial distributions and variations of Outgoing Longwave Radiation(hereafter briefly as OLR) near the epicenter before the recently four catastrophic earthquakes including 12 May 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake,12th January 2010 Port-au-PrinccM7.3 earthquake,27th February 2010 Chile M8.8 earthquake and 14th April 2010Yushu M7.1 earthquake.OLR data were acquired from NOAA-18,and we used the daily OLR vorticity value as the index to diagnose the possible precursors before earthquakes,in which,we define the OLR vorticity value as following: VCD,,D,) =[OLR(D,,D;)X4-OLR(D,-i iD^-OLRiD^,D,)-OLR(D,,D,-,)-()LR(D,,D]+])]/4 In which:VCD,,D,)is the daily OLR vorticity value in some grid,OLRCD;,D,) is the daily OLR average value in the same grid,i,j is the grid position.The vorticity value can reflect the gradient changes at each grid related to the neighboring grids,improving the identification of the anomalies.The results indicated that significant differences of OLR data 1~2 days before earthquake existed near the epicenters of the studied four strong earthquakes.Therefore, it is proposed that analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution and variations of outgoing long-wave radiation data could be an effective measure for earthquake forecasting.
To identify the precursors for impending strong earthquakes is critical for earthquake forecasting.This paper presents the temporal and spatial distributions and variations of Outgoing Longwave Radiation(hereafter briefly as OLR) near the epicenter before the recently four catastrophic earthquakes including 12 May 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake,12th January 2010 Port-au-PrinccM7.3 earthquake,27th February 2010 Chile M8.8 earthquake and 14th April 2010Yushu M7.1 earthquake.OLR data were acquired from NOAA-18,and we used the daily OLR vorticity value as the index to diagnose the possible precursors before earthquakes,in which,we define the OLR vorticity value as following: VCD,,D,) =[OLR(D,,D;)X4-OLR(D,-i iD^-OLRiD^,D,)-OLR(D,,D,-,)-()LR(D,,D]+])]/4 In which:VCD,,D,)is the daily OLR vorticity value in some grid,OLRCD;,D,) is the daily OLR average value in the same grid,i,j is the grid position.The vorticity value can reflect the gradient changes at each grid related to the neighboring grids,improving the identification of the anomalies.The results indicated that significant differences of OLR data 1~2 days before earthquake existed near the epicenters of the studied four strong earthquakes.Therefore, it is proposed that analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution and variations of outgoing long-wave radiation data could be an effective measure for earthquake forecasting.
引文
[1]梅世蓉,薛艳,宋治平.汶川8.0级与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示[J].地震,2009,29(1):1-14. Mei S R,Xue Y,Song Z P.Anomalous Seismic Characteristics before Wenchuan M8.0 and Kunlunshan M8.1 Earthquakes and Their Implications.Earthquake.2009,29(1 ):1 - 14.
[2]强祖基,徐秀登,等,卫星热红外异常临震征兆[J].科学通报,1990,35(17):1324-1327. Qiang Z J,Xu X D,Dai C G.The satellite thermal infrared anomaly-an imminent precursor[J].Chinese Science Bulletin, 1990,35(17):1324-1327(in Chinese).
[3]刘德富,彭克银,刘维贺等,地震有“热征兆”[J],地震学报, 1999,12(6):710-715. Liu D F,Peng K Y,Liu W H,et al.Thermal omens before earthquake[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1999,12(6 ):710 - 715.
[4]刘德富.台湾集集强震前卫星遥感长波辐射场变异分析[J],地球信息科学,2000,2(1):33-36. Liu D F.Anomalies analyses on satellite remote sensing OLR before Jiji earthquake of Taiwan Prouince[J].Geo-Information Science,2(1 ):33 - 36(in Chinese).
[5]Tronin A A,Hayakawa M,Molchanov O A.Thermal IR satellite data application for earthquake research in Japan and China. J ournal of Geodynamics,2002,33:519 - 534.
[6]刘德富,康春丽.地球长波辐射(OLR)遥感与重大自然灾害预测[J].地学前缘,2003,10(2):427-435. Liu D F,Kang C L.Predictiong heavy disasters by Outgoing Longwave Rdiation of the earth,Earth Science Frontiers(China University of Geosciences,Beijing),2003,10(2 ):427 - 435(in Chinese).
[7]张元生,柳钦火,郭晓,卫星红外遥感在地震预报中的应用及研究进展[J]西北地震学报,2004,26(4):357-61. Zhang Y S,Liu Q H,Cuo X,Progress in Application and study of the technology of satellite infrared remote sensing on earthquake prediction,Northwestern seismological journal, 2004,26(4):357-61.
[8]刘德富,康春丽.苏门答腊岛8.7级大地震前的辐射异常现象[J].国际地震动态,2005,1:37-39. Liu D F,Kang C L.Radiation Anomalism Before Sumatra Island M8.7 Earthquake.Recent Developments in World Seismology.2005,1,37-39.
[9]Ouzounov D,Freund F.Mid infrared emission prior to strong earthquakes analyzed by remote sensing data.Advances in Space Research,2004,33:268-273.
[10]Ouzounov D,Bryant N,Logan T,et al.Satellite thermal IR phenomena associated with some of the major earthquakes in 1999 2003.Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2006,31:154 -163.
[11]Feng J,Xing F G,Xu H S.Study of Outgoing Longwave Radiation Variations Associated with Strong Earthquake. ICSIT2009.Proc.SPIE,Vol.7651,765113(2009 ),doi:10. 1117/12.855573.
[12]曲春燕,单新建,马瑾,地震活动性热红外异常提取方法研究[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(7):699-705. Qu C Y,Shan X J.Study on the methods for extracting earthquake thermal infrared anomaly,Advances in Earth Science,2006,21(7):699-705.
[13]陈梅花,邓志辉,马晓静等,断裂带内外温差法在震前红外异常研究中的应用[J].地震地质,2007,29(4):863-872. Chen M H,Deng Z H,Ma X J,Application of the inside-outside temperature relation analysis method in study on satellite infrared anomalies prior to earthquake,Seismology and Geology,2007,29(4):863-872.
[14]Jing F,Gu X F,Shen X H,et al.The Anomaly of Outgoing Longwave Radiation before Earthquakes by the wavelet analysis in Sichuan-Yunnan area.MIPPER2009.Proc.SPIE, Vol.7498,74983Z(2009),doi:10.1117/12.832287.
[15]Xiong P,Shen X H,Bi Y X,et al.Study of outgoing longwave radiation anomalies associated with Haiti earthquake.Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.Sci.,10,2169-2178,doi:10.5194/ nhess-10-2169-2010,2010.
[16]康春丽,张艳梅,刘德富,等,汶川8.0级大地震的长波辐射征象[J].地震,2009,29(1):116-120. Kang C L,Zhang Y M,Iiu D F,et al.Long-Wave-Radiation Indication on the Wenchuan M8 Earthquake.Earthquake, 2009,29(1):116-120.
[17]Dimitar O,Liu D F,Kang C L,et al.Outgoing long wave radiation variability from IR satellite data prior to major earthquake[J],Tectonophysics,2007,431:211 -220.
[18]康春丽,韩延本,刘德富等.强震前地气系统长波辐射(OLR)异常的成因[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(6):1703-1708. Kang C L,Han Y B,Liu D F,et al.The OLR anomaly and mechanism Before Tibet earthquake(M6.9).Progeress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2008,23(6):1703-1708.
[19]黎令仪,刘德富.震级序列的门限建模[J],地球物理学报, 1985,28(3):303-310. Li L Y,Liu D F.Modeling threshold magnitude sequence[J], Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1985,28(3):303-310.
[20]刘德富,黎令仪.地震活动的自律现象[J],中国科学(B辑), 1989,(2):191-198. Liu D F,Li L Y.The self-rhythm phenomena in earthquake activity[J].Science in China(Series B),1989,32(6):749- 756.
[21]康春丽,刘德富,杜建国.地震趋势预测的一种新模型研究[J],地球信息科学,2001,1,43-45. Kang C L,Liu D F,Du J G.A new Model Study for the Future Earthquake Tendency Predicting,Geo-Information Science,2001,1,43-45.
[2]强祖基,徐秀登,等,卫星热红外异常临震征兆[J].科学通报,1990,35(17):1324-1327. Qiang Z J,Xu X D,Dai C G.The satellite thermal infrared anomaly-an imminent precursor[J].Chinese Science Bulletin, 1990,35(17):1324-1327(in Chinese).
[3]刘德富,彭克银,刘维贺等,地震有“热征兆”[J],地震学报, 1999,12(6):710-715. Liu D F,Peng K Y,Liu W H,et al.Thermal omens before earthquake[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1999,12(6 ):710 - 715.
[4]刘德富.台湾集集强震前卫星遥感长波辐射场变异分析[J],地球信息科学,2000,2(1):33-36. Liu D F.Anomalies analyses on satellite remote sensing OLR before Jiji earthquake of Taiwan Prouince[J].Geo-Information Science,2(1 ):33 - 36(in Chinese).
[5]Tronin A A,Hayakawa M,Molchanov O A.Thermal IR satellite data application for earthquake research in Japan and China. J ournal of Geodynamics,2002,33:519 - 534.
[6]刘德富,康春丽.地球长波辐射(OLR)遥感与重大自然灾害预测[J].地学前缘,2003,10(2):427-435. Liu D F,Kang C L.Predictiong heavy disasters by Outgoing Longwave Rdiation of the earth,Earth Science Frontiers(China University of Geosciences,Beijing),2003,10(2 ):427 - 435(in Chinese).
[7]张元生,柳钦火,郭晓,卫星红外遥感在地震预报中的应用及研究进展[J]西北地震学报,2004,26(4):357-61. Zhang Y S,Liu Q H,Cuo X,Progress in Application and study of the technology of satellite infrared remote sensing on earthquake prediction,Northwestern seismological journal, 2004,26(4):357-61.
[8]刘德富,康春丽.苏门答腊岛8.7级大地震前的辐射异常现象[J].国际地震动态,2005,1:37-39. Liu D F,Kang C L.Radiation Anomalism Before Sumatra Island M8.7 Earthquake.Recent Developments in World Seismology.2005,1,37-39.
[9]Ouzounov D,Freund F.Mid infrared emission prior to strong earthquakes analyzed by remote sensing data.Advances in Space Research,2004,33:268-273.
[10]Ouzounov D,Bryant N,Logan T,et al.Satellite thermal IR phenomena associated with some of the major earthquakes in 1999 2003.Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2006,31:154 -163.
[11]Feng J,Xing F G,Xu H S.Study of Outgoing Longwave Radiation Variations Associated with Strong Earthquake. ICSIT2009.Proc.SPIE,Vol.7651,765113(2009 ),doi:10. 1117/12.855573.
[12]曲春燕,单新建,马瑾,地震活动性热红外异常提取方法研究[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(7):699-705. Qu C Y,Shan X J.Study on the methods for extracting earthquake thermal infrared anomaly,Advances in Earth Science,2006,21(7):699-705.
[13]陈梅花,邓志辉,马晓静等,断裂带内外温差法在震前红外异常研究中的应用[J].地震地质,2007,29(4):863-872. Chen M H,Deng Z H,Ma X J,Application of the inside-outside temperature relation analysis method in study on satellite infrared anomalies prior to earthquake,Seismology and Geology,2007,29(4):863-872.
[14]Jing F,Gu X F,Shen X H,et al.The Anomaly of Outgoing Longwave Radiation before Earthquakes by the wavelet analysis in Sichuan-Yunnan area.MIPPER2009.Proc.SPIE, Vol.7498,74983Z(2009),doi:10.1117/12.832287.
[15]Xiong P,Shen X H,Bi Y X,et al.Study of outgoing longwave radiation anomalies associated with Haiti earthquake.Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.Sci.,10,2169-2178,doi:10.5194/ nhess-10-2169-2010,2010.
[16]康春丽,张艳梅,刘德富,等,汶川8.0级大地震的长波辐射征象[J].地震,2009,29(1):116-120. Kang C L,Zhang Y M,Iiu D F,et al.Long-Wave-Radiation Indication on the Wenchuan M8 Earthquake.Earthquake, 2009,29(1):116-120.
[17]Dimitar O,Liu D F,Kang C L,et al.Outgoing long wave radiation variability from IR satellite data prior to major earthquake[J],Tectonophysics,2007,431:211 -220.
[18]康春丽,韩延本,刘德富等.强震前地气系统长波辐射(OLR)异常的成因[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(6):1703-1708. Kang C L,Han Y B,Liu D F,et al.The OLR anomaly and mechanism Before Tibet earthquake(M6.9).Progeress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2008,23(6):1703-1708.
[19]黎令仪,刘德富.震级序列的门限建模[J],地球物理学报, 1985,28(3):303-310. Li L Y,Liu D F.Modeling threshold magnitude sequence[J], Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),1985,28(3):303-310.
[20]刘德富,黎令仪.地震活动的自律现象[J],中国科学(B辑), 1989,(2):191-198. Liu D F,Li L Y.The self-rhythm phenomena in earthquake activity[J].Science in China(Series B),1989,32(6):749- 756.
[21]康春丽,刘德富,杜建国.地震趋势预测的一种新模型研究[J],地球信息科学,2001,1,43-45. Kang C L,Liu D F,Du J G.A new Model Study for the Future Earthquake Tendency Predicting,Geo-Information Science,2001,1,43-45.
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