基于滑坡风险评价的水电站坝址比选研究
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摘要
针对滑坡风险在水电工程进行坝址比选时量化评价的问题,提出了基于滑坡风险评价的坝址比选研究方法,在综合考虑滑坡危险性分析、易损性分析和破坏性评价的基础上,引入滑坡体重要性系数、工程影响系数、距离模数、滑坡体状况系数、工况发生年概率等5个指标参数,综合考虑滑坡体客观情况与人类活动影响因素,建立以年期望值为指标的水电工程滑坡灾害评价体系。用坝址安全风险指标、堵江引起发电量损失指标、河道清淤指标、库内清淤指标、涌浪破坏损失指标、人口易损性指标和自然易损性指标等指标作为标准对坝址选择进行风险综合评价,可有效避免在安全风险指标相似情况下坝址风险确定难的问题。通过对滑坡体造成的破坏损失评价,运用安全与经济性相平衡原则,得出基于风险评价的坝址比选结果。以雅砻江卡拉水电站坝址选择为计算实例,得出同一量纲下的计算分析结果,该结果更直观可靠,为坝址比选提供了依据。
Aiming at the problem of quantitative assessment in the situation of the landslide group risk in carrying out the dam site scheme comparison in hydropower construction,this paper puts forward the methods for dam site scheme comparison based on landslide risk assessment.On basis of the analyses of landslide risk,vulnerability and destructiveness,five indexes-landslide importance coefficient,engineering influence coefficient,distance modules,the landslide status coefficient and the working condition occurrence yearly probability are introduced in the discussion and a comprehensive consideration of landslide status and human activity influence are also taken into account to build a hydropower landslide disaster assessment system.In this comprehensive method,the indexes of dam site safety risk,the general power losing caused by river-blocking,the river dredging,the reservoir dredging,surge damage losing,the population vulnerability and nature vulnerability are taken as the standard indexes.The problem of how to evaluate the dam site risk under the condition of the safety risk indexes can be effectively avoided.Through the evaluation of landslide damage,the principle of balanced security and economy is used to obtain the result of dam site scheme comparison based on landslide risk assessment.Taking the hydropower station of the Yalong River as an example,the risk assessment can be closely connected with the existing engineering and the calculation analysis under the same dimension will be more direct and reliable.As a result,the references can be provided for dam site scheme comparison in this comprehensive way.
Aiming at the problem of quantitative assessment in the situation of the landslide group risk in carrying out the dam site scheme comparison in hydropower construction,this paper puts forward the methods for dam site scheme comparison based on landslide risk assessment.On basis of the analyses of landslide risk,vulnerability and destructiveness,five indexes-landslide importance coefficient,engineering influence coefficient,distance modules,the landslide status coefficient and the working condition occurrence yearly probability are introduced in the discussion and a comprehensive consideration of landslide status and human activity influence are also taken into account to build a hydropower landslide disaster assessment system.In this comprehensive method,the indexes of dam site safety risk,the general power losing caused by river-blocking,the river dredging,the reservoir dredging,surge damage losing,the population vulnerability and nature vulnerability are taken as the standard indexes.The problem of how to evaluate the dam site risk under the condition of the safety risk indexes can be effectively avoided.Through the evaluation of landslide damage,the principle of balanced security and economy is used to obtain the result of dam site scheme comparison based on landslide risk assessment.Taking the hydropower station of the Yalong River as an example,the risk assessment can be closely connected with the existing engineering and the calculation analysis under the same dimension will be more direct and reliable.As a result,the references can be provided for dam site scheme comparison in this comprehensive way.
引文
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[15]赵辉,谭跃虎,徐辉,等.雅砻江上田边坡稳定可靠性蒙特卡罗方法综合运用[J].地下空间与工程学报,2010,6(5):938-945.[ZHAO H,TAN Y H,XUH,et al.Application of Monte-Carlo method toShangtian landslide’s reliability analysis[J].ChineseJournal of Underground Space and Engineering,2010,6(5):938-945.(in Chinese)]
[2]吴世勇,王坚,王鸽.卡拉水电站边坡稳定及对坝址选择影响分析研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,28(增1):3216-3221.[WU S Y,WANG J,WANG G.Analysis of slope stability and its influenceon dam site selection of Kala hydropower station[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,28(S1):3216-3221.(in Chinese)]
[3]Robill Fell,Bowles D S,Anderson L R,等.大坝失事概率估算方法在量化风险评价中的应用现状[J].大坝与安全,2002(1):147-150.[Robill Fell,Bowles D S,Anderson L R,et al.Status of methodsfor estimation of probability of failure of dams for usein quantitative risk assessment[J].Large Dam andSafety,2002(1):147-150.(in Chinese)]
[4]陈祖煜.土质边坡稳定分析-原理.方法.程序[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003.[CHEN ZY.Solid slope stability analysis theory methods andprograms[M].Beijing:China Waterpower Press,2003.(in Chinese)]
[5]Casagrande A.The Role of Calculated Risk inEarthwork and Foundation Engineering[J].Journal ofSoil Mechanics Division,ASCE,1965,91(4):1-40.
[6]Ken Hot,Eric Leroi,Bill Roberds.Quantitative riskassessment:Application,myths and future direction[C]//Modern Techniques for Dams Financing,Construction,Operation,Risk Assessment.Dresden:[s.n],2001:269-305.
[7]Morgan G C,Rawlings G E,Sobkowiez J C.Evaluating total risk to communities from large debrisflows[C]//Geotechnique and Natural Hazards,Proceeding of the Haphazard’92 Symposium.Canada:BiTech Publishers,1992:225-236.
[8]吴越,刘东升,陆新,等.单体滑坡灾害财产风险定量评估模型[J].岩石力学,2010,31(增2):342-348.[WU Y,LIU D S,LU X,et al.A quantitativeassessment model for property risk caused by singlelandslide[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2010,31(S2):342-348.(in Chinese)]
[9]Zezere J L,Garcia R A C,Oliveira S C.Probabilisticlandslide risk analysis considering direct costs in thearea north of Lisbon Portugal[J].Geomorphology,2008,94(3/4):467-495.
[10]KAYNIA E.Probabilistic assessment of vulnerabilityto landslide:Application to the village ofLichtenstein,Baden-Wurttemberg,Germany[J].Engineering Geology,2008,101(1/2):33-48.
[11]Morgenstern N R.Managing risk in geotechnicalengineering[C]//The 3th Casagrande lecture.Proc.10th Pan American Conference on soil mechanics andFoundation Engineering,1995:102-126.
[12]Zhou J,Nowak A S.Integration formulas to evaluatefunctions of random variables[J].Structural Safety,1988,5(4):267-284.
[13]DL/T5353—2006水电水利工程边坡设计规范[S].[DL/T5353—2006 Design specification forslope of hydropower and water conservancy project[S].(in Chinese)]
[14]DL/T5180—2003水电枢纽工程等级划分及设计安全标准[S].[DL/T5180—2006Classification&Design Safety Standard for Waterpower Projects[S].(in Chinese)]
[15]赵辉,谭跃虎,徐辉,等.雅砻江上田边坡稳定可靠性蒙特卡罗方法综合运用[J].地下空间与工程学报,2010,6(5):938-945.[ZHAO H,TAN Y H,XUH,et al.Application of Monte-Carlo method toShangtian landslide’s reliability analysis[J].ChineseJournal of Underground Space and Engineering,2010,6(5):938-945.(in Chinese)]
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