地震预警工程的若干问题探讨
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摘要
地震预警是国内外地学研究的热点,是复杂的社会工程。地震预警工程是跨学科的工程,特别是涉及自然科学和社会科学的结合。本文就地震预警的一些基本概念和由地震预警原理带来的工程上的若干问题,进行了比较详细的讨论。介绍了地震预警的概念和种类、地震预警的模式、地震预警的能力,强调了地震预警盲区、受益区、无效区的不同能力,提出了地震预警第一报的重要性。指出了地震预警技术不仅带来减灾效果,还催生了密集地震观测网,突破了传统地震观测网的观测方式和处理方法,将为传统的地震观测学和实时地震学带来创新和变革。论述了当前地震预警技术的局限和存在的问题。结合国内外地震预警的现状,提出了地震预警工程需要注意的问题及需要研究的方向,指出地震预警是复杂的社会工程,首次提出了地震预警的社会容忍度及社会对地震预警容忍度的差异,同时探讨了地震预警效益和风险。
Earthquake early warning(EEW) is a hot topic in domestic and foreign research. It is a complex social engineering. Earthquake early warning engineering is an interdisciplinary engineering, particularly in the combination between natural science and social science. In this paper, some problems about some basic concepts of earthquake early warning and some problems brought by the earthquake early warning theory, are discussed in detail. This paper introduces the concept and types of earthquake early warning, earthquake early warning model, ability of earthquake early warning and it also emphasizes the different ability of earthquake early warning, benefit area, blind area of invalid area and points out the importance of the first report of earthquake early warning. This paper points out that the earthquake early warning technology not only brings mitigation for disaster, but also stimulates a dense seismic observation network, which is a breakthrough compared to traditional observation methods and processing methods and will bring innovation and reform to the traditional seismic observation network, especially for real-time seismology. This paper discusses the current earthquake early warning technology limitations and problems. Combining the current situation of domestic and international earthquake early warning system, the paper puts forward the need to pay attention to the earthquake early warning engineering and strategy for research, points out that the earthquake early warning is a complex social project. The difference between social tolerance of earthquake early warning and the society's tolerance to earthquake early warning is first proposed. The risks and benefits of earthquake early warning are also discussed in this paper.
Earthquake early warning(EEW) is a hot topic in domestic and foreign research. It is a complex social engineering. Earthquake early warning engineering is an interdisciplinary engineering, particularly in the combination between natural science and social science. In this paper, some problems about some basic concepts of earthquake early warning and some problems brought by the earthquake early warning theory, are discussed in detail. This paper introduces the concept and types of earthquake early warning, earthquake early warning model, ability of earthquake early warning and it also emphasizes the different ability of earthquake early warning, benefit area, blind area of invalid area and points out the importance of the first report of earthquake early warning. This paper points out that the earthquake early warning technology not only brings mitigation for disaster, but also stimulates a dense seismic observation network, which is a breakthrough compared to traditional observation methods and processing methods and will bring innovation and reform to the traditional seismic observation network, especially for real-time seismology. This paper discusses the current earthquake early warning technology limitations and problems. Combining the current situation of domestic and international earthquake early warning system, the paper puts forward the need to pay attention to the earthquake early warning engineering and strategy for research, points out that the earthquake early warning is a complex social project. The difference between social tolerance of earthquake early warning and the society's tolerance to earthquake early warning is first proposed. The risks and benefits of earthquake early warning are also discussed in this paper.
引文
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[7]Wu Y M,Zhao L.Magnitude Estimation Using the First Three Seconds P-w ave Amplitude in Earthquake Early Warning[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33:2.
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[11]Wu Y M,Chen D Y,Lin T L,et al.A High-Density Seismic Network for Earthquake Early Warning in Taiwan Based on Low Cost Sensors[J].Seismological Research Letters,2013,84(6).
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[14]郑斯华.地震预警及烈度速报系统:原理和实践[R].中国地震局地震预测研所,2014.
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[16]陈会忠.日本地震预警系统日趋完善[J].国际地震动态,2011(4):10-15.
[17]陈会忠,侯燕燕,何加勇,等.2011年3月11日本地震预警系统评述[C/OL].中国地球物理学会.中国地球物理学会第二十七届年会论文集.CNKI,2011:581.http://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-ZGDW201110001459.htm.
[18]饶芳.日本地震预测与预警系统[J].e-Science,2008(2):79-80.
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[22]Heimpel M H.Characteristic Scales of Earthquake Rupture from Numerical Models[J].Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,2003,10:581.
[23]Olson E L,Allen R M.The Deterministic Nature of Earthquake Rupture[J].Nature,2005,438:213.doi:10.1038/nature04214.
[24]Earthquake Early Warning.Seismic Instrumentation[EB/OL].[2014-10-07].http://131.215.66.40/?page_id=236.
[25]Burkett E R,Given D D,Jones L M.Shake Alert:An Earthquake Early Warning System for the United States West Coast[R/OL].(2014-08-29)[2014-11-09].http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3083/pdf/fs2014-3083.pdf.
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[28]中国地震信息网.预测预报工作[EB/OL].[2014-04-06].http://www.csi.ac.cn/publish/main/828/1108/index.html.
[29]Yamasaki E.What We Can Learn from Japan's Early Earthquake Warning System[J].Momentum,2012,1(1):1-27.
[30]钱志鸿,王义君.面向物联网的无线传感器网络综述[J].电子与信息学报,2012,35(1):215-225.
[31]Yan Wei.北京大学网络与信息系统研究所讲义:第七讲无线传感器网络[R/OL].(2012)[2014-04-10].http://net.pku.edu.cn/wireless Net/ppt/09lec7.pdf.
[32]孙健.我国商业银行风险容忍度研究[J].海南金融,2008,7:11-13.
[33]杨建清.模糊容忍度和阅读理解的相关研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2010:13-17.
[2]张晁军,陈会忠,李卫东.地震预警的十个问题[J].国际地震动态,2013(6).
[3]朱福祥,郭迅,李山有,等.重大工程地震预警初步研究[J].世界地震工程,2002,18(3).
[4]日本气象厅.What is an Earthquake Early Warning[EB/OL].(2014)[2014-01-16].http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/eew1.html.
[5]Kanamori H.Real-Time Seismology and Earthquake Damage Mitigation[J].Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences,2005,33.doi:10.1146/annurev.Earth.33.092203.122626.
[6]Wu Y M,Shin T C,Tsai Y B.Quick and Reliable Determination of Magnitude for Seismic Early Warning[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,1998,88(5):1254-1259.
[7]Wu Y M,Zhao L.Magnitude Estimation Using the First Three Seconds P-w ave Amplitude in Earthquake Early Warning[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33:2.
[8]张晁军,李卫东,林捷,等.关于地震预警的几个问题[J].中国地震,2013(2).
[9]Yirka B.Researchers Using GPS and Accelerometers in Base Stations to Create Early Warning System in Southern California[EB/OL].(2014-01-06)[2014-09-08].http://phys.org/news/2014-01-gps-accelerometers-base-stations-early.html.
[10]Lemonilin.地震预警[EB/OL].(2011-03-16)[2014-09-08].http://nota.tw/2011/03/16/earthquakeearlywarning/.
[11]Wu Y M,Chen D Y,Lin T L,et al.A High-Density Seismic Network for Earthquake Early Warning in Taiwan Based on Low Cost Sensors[J].Seismological Research Letters,2013,84(6).
[12]王卫民,姚振兴.再谈汶川地震破裂过程[EB/OL].(2008-07-11)[2014-10-02].http://www.csi.ac.cn/manage/html/4028861611c5c2ba0111c5c558b00001/_content/08_07/11/1215741620117.html.
[13]Nakamura Y,Saita J.Ur EDAS,the Earthquake Warning System:Today and Tomorrow[M]//Gasparini P,Manfredi G,Zschau J.Earthquake Early Warning System.Berlin Heidelberg:Springer,2007.
[14]郑斯华.地震预警及烈度速报系统:原理和实践[R].中国地震局地震预测研所,2014.
[15]Protti M.Significance of an Earthquake Early Warning System for Vulnerable Essential Facilities:The Example of a Potential Implementation in Costa Rica[EB/OL].[2014-04-10].http://cidbimena.desastres.hn/docum/crid/EIRDInforma/ing/No3_2001/Pagina8.htm.
[16]陈会忠.日本地震预警系统日趋完善[J].国际地震动态,2011(4):10-15.
[17]陈会忠,侯燕燕,何加勇,等.2011年3月11日本地震预警系统评述[C/OL].中国地球物理学会.中国地球物理学会第二十七届年会论文集.CNKI,2011:581.http://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-ZGDW201110001459.htm.
[18]饶芳.日本地震预测与预警系统[J].e-Science,2008(2):79-80.
[19]日本气象厅.Monitoring of Earthquakes,Tsunamis and Volcanic Activity[EB/OL].[2014-04-05].http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/earthquake.html.
[20]NIED.What is Hi-net[EB/OL].[2014-04-10].http://www.hinet.bosai.go.jp/summary/?LANG=en.
[21]中国地震局地壳运动监测工程研究中心.地震预警与烈度速报相关标准及评估方法研究[R].国家科技支撑项目“地震预警和烈度速报能力评估及台网整体架构设计”专题(2009BAK55B05),2013:16-23.
[22]Heimpel M H.Characteristic Scales of Earthquake Rupture from Numerical Models[J].Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,2003,10:581.
[23]Olson E L,Allen R M.The Deterministic Nature of Earthquake Rupture[J].Nature,2005,438:213.doi:10.1038/nature04214.
[24]Earthquake Early Warning.Seismic Instrumentation[EB/OL].[2014-10-07].http://131.215.66.40/?page_id=236.
[25]Burkett E R,Given D D,Jones L M.Shake Alert:An Earthquake Early Warning System for the United States West Coast[R/OL].(2014-08-29)[2014-11-09].http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3083/pdf/fs2014-3083.pdf.
[26]日本气象厅.2013年12月14日12时06分日本千叶近海5.5级地震烈度速报图[EB/OL].[2014-04-01].http://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eqdb/data/shindo/Event.php?ID=191102.
[27]中国地震信息网.地震背景[EB/OL].[2014-04-06].http://www.csi.ac.cn/publish/main/848/1110/index.html.
[28]中国地震信息网.预测预报工作[EB/OL].[2014-04-06].http://www.csi.ac.cn/publish/main/828/1108/index.html.
[29]Yamasaki E.What We Can Learn from Japan's Early Earthquake Warning System[J].Momentum,2012,1(1):1-27.
[30]钱志鸿,王义君.面向物联网的无线传感器网络综述[J].电子与信息学报,2012,35(1):215-225.
[31]Yan Wei.北京大学网络与信息系统研究所讲义:第七讲无线传感器网络[R/OL].(2012)[2014-04-10].http://net.pku.edu.cn/wireless Net/ppt/09lec7.pdf.
[32]孙健.我国商业银行风险容忍度研究[J].海南金融,2008,7:11-13.
[33]杨建清.模糊容忍度和阅读理解的相关研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2010:13-17.
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