浅谈芦山地震
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摘要
地震序列是对地震现象的回顾性描述,只有在地震序列结束后它才有可能被确切无疑地判定.鉴于龙门山断裂带或地震带的整体性、统一性和系统性,不可否认在其西南段发生的芦山地震是与汶川地震一样的同属于龙门山断裂带的事件.鉴于芦山地震的震源位置、震源机制、震级大小和破裂区覆盖的范围,目前可认为它是汶川地震迄今最大的余震.鉴于地震序列的判定是对地震现象的唯象的描述,有相当的任意性,对芦山地震究竟是"新的主震"还是"汶川余震"的"讨论"实质上是在根据经验判定地震的类型,即使目前看"主震说"提出的4条"论据"明显缺乏说服力,"余震说"比较有说服力,但最后都需要等到地震序列结束之后才有可能"定论".作者认为,相对于需要等到地震序列结束之后才能"定论"、甚而在地震序列结束之后未必能"定论"的芦山地震究竟是"新的主震"还是"汶川余震"问题,应当更为关注芦山地震的发生引出的一些重要的亟待研究的科学问题与防震减灾问题.
An earthquake sequence is a retrospective designation of earthquake phenomena, and it can only be identified without doubt after the earthquake sequence has been completed. In view of the integrity, uniformity and systematicness of the Longmenshan fault zone or seismic belt, there is no denying the fact that the 20 April 2013 MW6.7 Lushan earthquake which occurred in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault is an event of the Longmenshan fault zone as the 12 May 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Taking into account the hypocentral location, focal mechanism, magnitude and ruptured area of the Lushan earthquake, it is preferable that the Lushan earthquake is the largest aftershock up to the present, of the 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan mainshock. Due to the fact that the identificaion of an earthquake sequencc is phenomenalogical description with arbitrariness to some extent, whether the Lushan earthquake is a new mainshock or one of the aftershocks of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is based on empirical knowledge and remains unsolved till the whole earthquake sequence has been completed, even though at present the arguments of the "one of the aftershocks of the Wenchuan earthquake" are convincing. It is emphasized that prompt solution should be given to some outstanding scientific issues related to the Lushan earthquake as well as prevention and mitigation of earthquake disasters.
An earthquake sequence is a retrospective designation of earthquake phenomena, and it can only be identified without doubt after the earthquake sequence has been completed. In view of the integrity, uniformity and systematicness of the Longmenshan fault zone or seismic belt, there is no denying the fact that the 20 April 2013 MW6.7 Lushan earthquake which occurred in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault is an event of the Longmenshan fault zone as the 12 May 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Taking into account the hypocentral location, focal mechanism, magnitude and ruptured area of the Lushan earthquake, it is preferable that the Lushan earthquake is the largest aftershock up to the present, of the 2008 MW7.9 Wenchuan mainshock. Due to the fact that the identificaion of an earthquake sequencc is phenomenalogical description with arbitrariness to some extent, whether the Lushan earthquake is a new mainshock or one of the aftershocks of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is based on empirical knowledge and remains unsolved till the whole earthquake sequence has been completed, even though at present the arguments of the "one of the aftershocks of the Wenchuan earthquake" are convincing. It is emphasized that prompt solution should be given to some outstanding scientific issues related to the Lushan earthquake as well as prevention and mitigation of earthquake disasters.
引文
陈运泰,杨智娴,张勇,刘超.2013.从汶川地震到芦山地震[J].中国科学:地球科学,43(6):1064--1072.
陈运泰,许力生,张勇,杜海林,冯万鹏,刘超,李春来,张红霞.2008.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[R/OL].http:∥www.cea-igp.ac.cn/汶川地震专题/地震情况/初步研究及考察结果(一).
陈立德.1988.1970年1月5日云南省通海7.7级地震[M]∥张肇诚主编.中国震例(1966—1975).北京:地震出版社:57--76.
杜方,龙锋,阮祥,易桂喜,宫悦,赵敏,张致伟,乔慧珍,汪智,吴江.2013.四川芦山7.0级地震及其与汶川8.0级地震的关系[J].地球物理学报,56(5):1772--1783,doi:10.6038/cjg20130535.
傅承义(编著).1963.地壳物理讲义[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学地球物理系:1--134.
刘杰,易桂喜,张致伟,官致君,阮祥,龙锋,杜方.2013.2013年4月20日四川芦山M7.0级地震介绍[J].地球物理学报,56(4):1404--1407,doi:10.6038/cjg20130434.
刘祖荫,苏有锦,秦嘉政,李忠华,张俊伟(编著).2002.20世纪云南地震活动[M].北京:地震出版社:1--288.
李娜.2013.争议“芦山地震是否汶川地震余震”意义何在[J].科技导报,31(12):8--9.
吴开统,焦远碧,吕培苓,王志东(编著).1990.地震序列概论[M].北京:北京大学出版社:1--250.
王为民,郝全来,姚振兴.2013.2013年4月20日四川芦山地震震源破裂过程反演初步结果[J].地球物理学报,56(4):1412--1417,doi:10.6038/cjg20130436.
朱传镇.1985.唐山及其邻区的地震活动[M]∥刘恢先主编.唐山大地震震害(第一册)[M].北京:地震出版社:1--16.
张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰(编著).2001.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社:1--399.
张勇,陈运泰,许力生.2013.芦山4.20地震破裂过程及其致灾特征初步分析[J].地球物理学报,56(4):1408--1411,doi:10.6038/cjg20130435.
张勇,冯万鹏,许力生,周成虎,陈运泰.2008.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程[J].中国科学:D辑,38(10):1186--1194.
Das S,Aki K.1977.Fault planes with barriers:A versatile earthquake model[J].J Geophys Res,82:5648--5670.
Das S,Scholz C H.1981.Theory of time dependent rupture in the earth[J].J Geophys Res,86:6039--6051.
Jordan T H,Chen Y-T,Gasparini P,Madariaga R,Main I,Marzocchi W,Papadopoulos G,Sobolev G,Yamaoka K,Zschau J.2011.Operational earthquake forecasting:State of knowledge and guidelines for utilization[J].Annals ofGeophysics,54(4):315--391,doi:10.4401/Ag-5350.
Liu M,Stein S.2011.Earthquake,aftershocks[M]∥Gupta H K ed.Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics.Dor-drecht,The Nethelands:Springer:192--194.
Omori F.1894.On the aftershocks of earthquake[J].J College Sci,Imperial Univ Tokyo,7:111--200.
Parsons T.2002.Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes:Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershockzone[J].J Geophys Res,107(B9):2199,doi:10.1029/2001JB000646.
Richter C F.1958.Elementry Seismology[M].San Francisco:W F Freeman:1--769.
Scholz C H.1990.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press:1--439.
Utsu T,Ogata Y,Matsu’ura R S.1995.The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity[J].J Phys Earth,43(1):1--33.
Utsu T.1961.A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks[J].Geophys Mag,30:521--605.
Utsu T.2002.Statistical features of seismicity[M]∥Lee W H K,Kanamori H,Jennings P C,Kisslinger C eds.Inter-national Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology,Part A.San Diego:Academic:719--732.
Yang Z X,Waldhauser F,Chen Y T,Richards P.2005.Double-difference relocation of earthquakes in central-westernChina,1992—1999[J].Journal of Seismology,9(2):241--264.
陈运泰,许力生,张勇,杜海林,冯万鹏,刘超,李春来,张红霞.2008.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[R/OL].http:∥www.cea-igp.ac.cn/汶川地震专题/地震情况/初步研究及考察结果(一).
陈立德.1988.1970年1月5日云南省通海7.7级地震[M]∥张肇诚主编.中国震例(1966—1975).北京:地震出版社:57--76.
杜方,龙锋,阮祥,易桂喜,宫悦,赵敏,张致伟,乔慧珍,汪智,吴江.2013.四川芦山7.0级地震及其与汶川8.0级地震的关系[J].地球物理学报,56(5):1772--1783,doi:10.6038/cjg20130535.
傅承义(编著).1963.地壳物理讲义[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学地球物理系:1--134.
刘杰,易桂喜,张致伟,官致君,阮祥,龙锋,杜方.2013.2013年4月20日四川芦山M7.0级地震介绍[J].地球物理学报,56(4):1404--1407,doi:10.6038/cjg20130434.
刘祖荫,苏有锦,秦嘉政,李忠华,张俊伟(编著).2002.20世纪云南地震活动[M].北京:地震出版社:1--288.
李娜.2013.争议“芦山地震是否汶川地震余震”意义何在[J].科技导报,31(12):8--9.
吴开统,焦远碧,吕培苓,王志东(编著).1990.地震序列概论[M].北京:北京大学出版社:1--250.
王为民,郝全来,姚振兴.2013.2013年4月20日四川芦山地震震源破裂过程反演初步结果[J].地球物理学报,56(4):1412--1417,doi:10.6038/cjg20130436.
朱传镇.1985.唐山及其邻区的地震活动[M]∥刘恢先主编.唐山大地震震害(第一册)[M].北京:地震出版社:1--16.
张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰(编著).2001.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社:1--399.
张勇,陈运泰,许力生.2013.芦山4.20地震破裂过程及其致灾特征初步分析[J].地球物理学报,56(4):1408--1411,doi:10.6038/cjg20130435.
张勇,冯万鹏,许力生,周成虎,陈运泰.2008.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程[J].中国科学:D辑,38(10):1186--1194.
Das S,Aki K.1977.Fault planes with barriers:A versatile earthquake model[J].J Geophys Res,82:5648--5670.
Das S,Scholz C H.1981.Theory of time dependent rupture in the earth[J].J Geophys Res,86:6039--6051.
Jordan T H,Chen Y-T,Gasparini P,Madariaga R,Main I,Marzocchi W,Papadopoulos G,Sobolev G,Yamaoka K,Zschau J.2011.Operational earthquake forecasting:State of knowledge and guidelines for utilization[J].Annals ofGeophysics,54(4):315--391,doi:10.4401/Ag-5350.
Liu M,Stein S.2011.Earthquake,aftershocks[M]∥Gupta H K ed.Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics.Dor-drecht,The Nethelands:Springer:192--194.
Omori F.1894.On the aftershocks of earthquake[J].J College Sci,Imperial Univ Tokyo,7:111--200.
Parsons T.2002.Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes:Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershockzone[J].J Geophys Res,107(B9):2199,doi:10.1029/2001JB000646.
Richter C F.1958.Elementry Seismology[M].San Francisco:W F Freeman:1--769.
Scholz C H.1990.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press:1--439.
Utsu T,Ogata Y,Matsu’ura R S.1995.The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity[J].J Phys Earth,43(1):1--33.
Utsu T.1961.A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks[J].Geophys Mag,30:521--605.
Utsu T.2002.Statistical features of seismicity[M]∥Lee W H K,Kanamori H,Jennings P C,Kisslinger C eds.Inter-national Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology,Part A.San Diego:Academic:719--732.
Yang Z X,Waldhauser F,Chen Y T,Richards P.2005.Double-difference relocation of earthquakes in central-westernChina,1992—1999[J].Journal of Seismology,9(2):241--264.
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