地震形成堰塞湖潜在影响范围快速评估
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摘要
以汶川地震诱发的唐家山堰塞湖为研究区域,以下游各水文站点的实测水文历史数据为基础,采用模拟退火智能算法训练计算了该河段的马斯京根演算方程系数,并在给定初始条件下,快速预报了下游各个重要地区的流量变化过程。结合断面的水位流量关系得到水位变化过程。最后,使用空间信息技术得到了下游潜在淹没范围。结果表明:在溃决水位为690 m的条件下,洪水将全部淹没下游北川县城。
Tangjiashan dammed lake induced by Wenchuan Earthquake is taken as research region,and on the basis of measured historical hydrological data of the hydrological stations in the downstream of Tangjiashan,the parameters of Maskingum equation for this river reach are calculated by simulated annealing algorithm.Under the given initial conditions,the variation process of the important areas in the downstream is forecasted quickly and the variation process of water level is obtained by level-discharge relation at the sections.The potential flooded area in the downstream area is achieved through spatial information technology.The results show that the whole Beichuan County would be flooded if the dammed lake outbursts at water level of 690 m.
Tangjiashan dammed lake induced by Wenchuan Earthquake is taken as research region,and on the basis of measured historical hydrological data of the hydrological stations in the downstream of Tangjiashan,the parameters of Maskingum equation for this river reach are calculated by simulated annealing algorithm.Under the given initial conditions,the variation process of the important areas in the downstream is forecasted quickly and the variation process of water level is obtained by level-discharge relation at the sections.The potential flooded area in the downstream area is achieved through spatial information technology.The results show that the whole Beichuan County would be flooded if the dammed lake outbursts at water level of 690 m.
引文
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[4]张煜,陈鹏宵,芦云峰,等.堰塞湖特征参数快速提取及影响分析评估[J].人民长江,2008,39(22):96-98
[5]丁志雄,王义成.基于遥感与GIS的堰塞湖库区淹没分析与灾害评估[J].水电水电技术,2008,10(39):115-120.
[6]张东华,刘荣.一种基于DEM的洪水有源淹没分析算法的设计与实现[J].东华理工大学学报,2009,32(2):181-184.
[7]翟宜峰.基于GIS/RS的洪水灾害评估模型[J].人民黄河,2003,25(3):6-7.
[8]陈靖,李天文,冯丽丽,等.GIS技术在洪水灾害评估中的应用研究:以渭河中下游地区为例[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,2008,38(4):663-667.
[9]王志一,甘甫平,李贤庆,等.CBERS-02B星数据在“5.12”地震灾害监测中的应用[J].国土资源遥感,2009,79(1):89-92.
[10]史旭,周扬.汶川地震堰塞湖的雷达遥感识别研究[J].水电能源科学,2009,27(5):65-68.
[11]潘世兵,李小涛,宋小宁,等.四川汶川5.12地震滑坡堰塞湖遥感监测分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2009,11(3):299-303.
[12]范建容,田兵伟,程根伟,等.基于多源遥感数据的5.12汶川地震诱发堰塞体信息提取[J].山地学报,2008,26(3):257-262.
[13]童立强.5.12汶川大地震极重灾区地震堰塞湖应急遥感调查[J].国土资源遥感,2008,77(3):61-63.
[14]隆文非,张新华,黄金池,等.水库溃坝洪水预测方法研究及应用[J].四川大学学报,2008,40(1):21-26.
[15]施国庆,朱淮宁,荀厚平,等.水库溃坝损失及其计算方法研究[J].灾害学,1998,13(4):28-33.
[16]Mizanur R,Chaudhry M F.Simulation of dam-break flow with gridadaptation[J].Advances in Water Resources,1998,21(1):1-9.
[17]解家毕,孙东亚.全国水库溃坝统计及溃坝原因分析[J].水利水电技术,2009,40(12):124-128.
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