基于未确知测度模型的尾矿库溃坝风险评价
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摘要
针对尾矿库溃坝风险分级预测评价中诸多因素不确定性问题,应用未确知测度理论与尾矿库溃坝风险评价标准并结合工程实际,根据尾矿库溃坝的特点及成因,选取防洪设计标准等16项未确知测度函数评价指标,建立尾矿库溃坝风险分级预测的未确知测度评价模型。根据广东省大宝山矿业有限公司槽对坑尾矿库的实际情况建立各评价因子的未确知测度函数,对其进行定量分析,并利用信息熵计算各评价指标的权重,依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,最后得出尾矿库溃坝风险评价分级预测的评价结果。研究结果表明:该方法不仅能给出尾矿库运行期的安全等级,并且能够更客观地反映尾矿库工程运行危险源的情况,为尾矿库溃坝危险性的评价提供了一种新的评价方法。
According to the various uncertainty problems of tailings reservoir dam-break risk in grade predicting evaluation,the characteristic and cause of tailings reservoir dam-break,the idea to establish the unascertained measure evaluation model was presented for tailings reservoir dam-break risk grade predicting.The model was based on the unascertained measurement theory,dam-break risk assessment of tailings reservoir and engineering practice.In view of the characteristic and the cause of tailings reservoir dam-break,standard of flood control and other 16 unascertained measure function evaluation indexes were selected.Based on the actual situation of Caoduikeng tailings reservoir of Guangdong Dabaoshan Mining Limited company,the unascertained measure function of each evaluation factor was built,the quantitative analysis and the calculation of information entropy in weight of each index was conducted,and the evaluation results of tailings reservoir dam-break risk assessment in grade predicting were obtained.The results show that it can not only propose safety grade of tailings reservoir operation period,but also is more objective on the truth of engineering operation dangerous source of tailings reservoir.It provides a new way for risk evaluation in tailings reservoir dam-break.
According to the various uncertainty problems of tailings reservoir dam-break risk in grade predicting evaluation,the characteristic and cause of tailings reservoir dam-break,the idea to establish the unascertained measure evaluation model was presented for tailings reservoir dam-break risk grade predicting.The model was based on the unascertained measurement theory,dam-break risk assessment of tailings reservoir and engineering practice.In view of the characteristic and the cause of tailings reservoir dam-break,standard of flood control and other 16 unascertained measure function evaluation indexes were selected.Based on the actual situation of Caoduikeng tailings reservoir of Guangdong Dabaoshan Mining Limited company,the unascertained measure function of each evaluation factor was built,the quantitative analysis and the calculation of information entropy in weight of each index was conducted,and the evaluation results of tailings reservoir dam-break risk assessment in grade predicting were obtained.The results show that it can not only propose safety grade of tailings reservoir operation period,but also is more objective on the truth of engineering operation dangerous source of tailings reservoir.It provides a new way for risk evaluation in tailings reservoir dam-break.
引文
[1]何衍兴,梅甫定,申志兵.我国尾矿库安全现状及管理措施探讨[J].安全与环境工程,2009,16(3):79-83.HE Yan-xing,MEI Fu-ding,SHEN Zhi-bing.Analysis of the safety situation and discussion on the management measures of the tailing reservoir[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2009,16(3):79-83.
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[8]董陇军,赵国彦.未确知均值分级方法及在回采巷道围岩分类中的应用[J].解放军理工大学学报,2009,10(6):575-579.DONG Dong-jun,ZHAO Guo-yan.Unascertained average classification method for classifying surrounding rocks of mining roadways[J].Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2009,10(6):575-579.
[9]李全明,张兴凯,王云海,等.尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系及风险评价模型研究[J].水利学报,2009,40(8):989-994.LI Quan-ming,ZHANG Xing-kai,WANG Yun-hai,et al.Risk index system and evaluation model for failure of tailings dams[J].Shiuli Xuebao,2009,40(8):989-994.
[10]董陇军,赵国彦,宫凤强,等.尾矿坝地震稳定性分析的区间模型及应用[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2011,42(1):164-170.DONG Long-jun,ZHAO Guo-yan,GONG Feng-qiang,et al.Interval non-real number model and its application for analysis stability of tailing dam[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2011,42(1):164-170.
[11]广东省大宝山矿业有限公司.槽对坑尾矿库资料汇编[R].韶关:广东省大宝山矿业有限公司,2006:26-51.Guangdong Dabaoshan Mining Limited Company.Information compilation of Caoduikeng tailings dam[R].Shaoguan:Guangdong Dabaoshan Mining Limited Company,2006:26-51.
[12]湖南有色冶金劳动保护研究院.广东省大宝山矿业有限公司槽对坑尾矿库安全现状评价报告[R].长沙:湖南有色冶金劳动保护研究院,2009:31-46.Hunan Nonferrous Metallurgical Labor Production Institute.Study on safety present assessment in Guangdong Dabaoshan Mining Limited Company’s Caoduikeng tailings dam[R].Changsha:Hunan Nonferrous Metallurgical Labor Production Institute,2009:31-46.
[2]冀红娟,杨春和,张超,等.尾矿库环境影响指标体系及评价方法及其应用[J].岩土力学,2008,29(8):2087-2091.JI Hong-juan,YANG Chun-he,ZHANG Chao,et al.Index system of environmental impact of tailings pond and application of assessment approach[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(8):2087-2091.
[3]王涛,侯克鹏,郭振世,等.层次分析法(AHP)在尾矿库安全运行分析中的应用[J].岩土力学,2008,29(11):680-686.WANG Tao,HOU Ke-peng,GUO Zhen-shi,et al.Application of analytic hierarchy process to tailings pond safety operation analysis[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(11):680-686.
[4]王飞跃.基于不确定性理论的尾矿坝稳定性分析及综合评价研究[D].长沙:中南大学资源与安全工程学院,2009:7-21.WANG Fei-yue.Based on the uncertainty theory of tailings dam stability analysis and comprehensive evaluation[D].Changsha:Central South University.School of Resources and Safety Engineering,2009:7-21.
[5]王光远.论未确知性信息及其数学处理[J].哈尔滨建筑工程学院学报,1990,23(4):52-58.WANG Guang-yuan.Uncertainty information and its mathematical treatment[J].Journal of Harbin Architecture and Engineering Institute,1990,23(4):52-58.
[6]DONG Dong-jun,PENG Gang-jian,FU Yu-hua,et al.Unascertained measurement classifying model of goaf collapse prediction[J].Journal of Coal Science&Engineering:English Edition,2008,12(2):221-224.
[7]董陇军,李夕兵,宫凤强.膨胀土胀缩等级分类的未确知均值聚类方法及应用[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2008,39(5):1075-1080.DONG Long-jun,LI Xi-bing,GONG Feng-qiang.Unascertained average clustering method for classification of grade of shrink and expansion for expansive soils and its application[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2008,39(5):1075-1080.
[8]董陇军,赵国彦.未确知均值分级方法及在回采巷道围岩分类中的应用[J].解放军理工大学学报,2009,10(6):575-579.DONG Dong-jun,ZHAO Guo-yan.Unascertained average classification method for classifying surrounding rocks of mining roadways[J].Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2009,10(6):575-579.
[9]李全明,张兴凯,王云海,等.尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系及风险评价模型研究[J].水利学报,2009,40(8):989-994.LI Quan-ming,ZHANG Xing-kai,WANG Yun-hai,et al.Risk index system and evaluation model for failure of tailings dams[J].Shiuli Xuebao,2009,40(8):989-994.
[10]董陇军,赵国彦,宫凤强,等.尾矿坝地震稳定性分析的区间模型及应用[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2011,42(1):164-170.DONG Long-jun,ZHAO Guo-yan,GONG Feng-qiang,et al.Interval non-real number model and its application for analysis stability of tailing dam[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2011,42(1):164-170.
[11]广东省大宝山矿业有限公司.槽对坑尾矿库资料汇编[R].韶关:广东省大宝山矿业有限公司,2006:26-51.Guangdong Dabaoshan Mining Limited Company.Information compilation of Caoduikeng tailings dam[R].Shaoguan:Guangdong Dabaoshan Mining Limited Company,2006:26-51.
[12]湖南有色冶金劳动保护研究院.广东省大宝山矿业有限公司槽对坑尾矿库安全现状评价报告[R].长沙:湖南有色冶金劳动保护研究院,2009:31-46.Hunan Nonferrous Metallurgical Labor Production Institute.Study on safety present assessment in Guangdong Dabaoshan Mining Limited Company’s Caoduikeng tailings dam[R].Changsha:Hunan Nonferrous Metallurgical Labor Production Institute,2009:31-46.
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