西安白鹿塬北缘黄土边坡稳定的可靠度分析
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摘要
在西安白鹿塬北缘实测了14个黄土自然边坡断面,建立了地质模型,通过采样测试并收集已有的测试资料,获得了各时代黄土地层的物理力学参数,将Morgenstern-Price法稳定性计算公式作为极限状态方程,分别采用Monte-Carlo法和Duncan法进行了边坡稳定的可靠度分析。结果表明:采用Monte-Carlo法和Duncan法得到的14个边坡稳定系数分别为1.11～1.41和1.09～1.33,显示这些边坡处于基本稳定—稳定状态;采用上述两种方法得到的边坡可靠指标分别为0.56～1.79和0.39～1.60,得到的失效概率分别为3.4%～29.0%和5.5%～34.8%,并且共有75%的边坡失效概率大于10%,失效可能性较大。统计结果表明:白鹿塬区边坡的坡高和坡度存在负相关性。低而陡的边坡潜在最危险滑面剪出口较高,失效概率较小;坡高达到50m及以上时,边坡高而缓,剪出口较低,失效概率较大,其中河流下切深,有N2泥岩出露的极高边坡,稳定性最差。Duncan法求解的稳定系数略小于Monte-Carlo法求得的结果,而前者求解的失效概率略大于后者,两种方法计算结果较为接近。由于Duncan法理论简单,计算量小,更宜于在实际工程中应用。
The sections of 14 loess natural slopes were measured along the northern edge of Bailuyuan,Xi'an,and then the geologic models were built.The parameters of physical mechanics of loess strata in different periods were obtained by in-suit testing and collecting data.Monte-Carlo Method and Duncan Method were used for slope reliability analysis based on the limit state equation of Morgenstern-Price Method.The results showed that the stability coefficients of 14 slopes calculated by Monte-Carlo Method and Duncan Method were 1.11-1.41 and 1.09-1.33 respectively,and the slopes were basically stable-stable;the reliable indicator of slopes calculated by the above methods were 0.56-1.79 and 0.39-1.60 and the failure probabilities of slopes were 3.4%-29.0% and 5.5%-34.8%,respectively;the failure probabilities of 75% slopes were more than 10%,and the failure Likelihoods were high.The statistical results indicated that the relationship between height and gradient of slopes was negative.The landslide shear crack of most dangerous potential slip surface in the low-steep slope was high,and the failure probability was small;when the height of slope was 50 m or more,it was high and slight,the landslide shear crack was low,the failure probability was high,and because of the deep stream trenching,there was highest slope in mudstone from strata N2,and the stability was most poor.The stability coefficients calculated by Duncan Method were a little less than that by Monte-Carlo Method,the failure probabilities calculated by the former were a little more than that by the latter,so the results calculated by the two methods were close.Because of the simple theory and small amount of calculation,Duncan Method was more appropriate for practical engineering.
The sections of 14 loess natural slopes were measured along the northern edge of Bailuyuan,Xi'an,and then the geologic models were built.The parameters of physical mechanics of loess strata in different periods were obtained by in-suit testing and collecting data.Monte-Carlo Method and Duncan Method were used for slope reliability analysis based on the limit state equation of Morgenstern-Price Method.The results showed that the stability coefficients of 14 slopes calculated by Monte-Carlo Method and Duncan Method were 1.11-1.41 and 1.09-1.33 respectively,and the slopes were basically stable-stable;the reliable indicator of slopes calculated by the above methods were 0.56-1.79 and 0.39-1.60 and the failure probabilities of slopes were 3.4%-29.0% and 5.5%-34.8%,respectively;the failure probabilities of 75% slopes were more than 10%,and the failure Likelihoods were high.The statistical results indicated that the relationship between height and gradient of slopes was negative.The landslide shear crack of most dangerous potential slip surface in the low-steep slope was high,and the failure probability was small;when the height of slope was 50 m or more,it was high and slight,the landslide shear crack was low,the failure probability was high,and because of the deep stream trenching,there was highest slope in mudstone from strata N2,and the stability was most poor.The stability coefficients calculated by Duncan Method were a little less than that by Monte-Carlo Method,the failure probabilities calculated by the former were a little more than that by the latter,so the results calculated by the two methods were close.Because of the simple theory and small amount of calculation,Duncan Method was more appropriate for practical engineering.
引文
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[2]缪卫东.西安市白鹿塬滑坡特征及成因分析[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2007,27(1):80-85.MIAO Wei-dong.Analysis of characteristic and cause of formation of landslides at Bailuyuan[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,2007,27(1):80-85.(in Chinese)
[3]楚敬龙,王金生,滕彦国,等.基于GIS的滑坡灾害危险性区划研究———以重庆市万州区为例[J].地球科学与环境学报,2010,32(4):409-415.CHU Jing-long,WANG Jin-sheng,TENG Yan-guo,et al.Study on landslide hazard zonation based on GIS—taking Wanzhou District of Chongqing City as an example[J].Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment,2010,32(4):409-415.(in Chinese)
[4]苏生瑞,张永双,李松,等.汶川地震引发高速远程滑坡运动机理数值模拟研究———以谢家店子滑坡为例[J].地球科学与环境学报,2010,32(3):277-287.SU Sheng-rui,ZHANG Yong-shuang,LI Song,et al.Numerical analysis on motion mechanism of highspeed and long runout landslide by Wenchuan Earthquake—taking Xiejiadianzi Landslide as an example[J].Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment,2010,32(3):277-287.(in Chinese)
[5]王福恒,李家春,田伟平.黄土边坡降雨入渗规律试验[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2009,29(4):20-24.WANG Fu-heng,LI Jia-chun,TIAN Wei-ping.Test on rainfall filtration in loess slope[J].Journal of Changan University:Natural Science Edition,2009,29(4):20-24.(in Chinese)
[6]彭小云,张婷,秦龙.高陡边坡稳定性的影响因素分析[J].西北建筑工程学院学报:自然科学版,2002,19(3):14-17.PENG Xiao-yun,ZHANG Ting,QIN Long.Analysis of influencing factors for the stability of high and steep slope[J].Journal of Architecture and Civil Engineering:Natural Science Edition,2002,19(3):14-17.(in Chinese)
[7]郭利平,叶万军,方鹏,等.开挖扰动导致黄土边坡产生剥落病害的机理分析[J].西安科技大学学报,2010,30(4):462-465,470.GUO Li-ping,YE Wan-jun,FANG Peng,et al.Mechanism of spalling hazard in loess slope induced by excavation distur-bance[J].Journal of Xian University of Science and Techno-logy,2010,30(4):462-465,470.(in Chinese)
[8]陈祖煜.土质边坡稳定分析:原理、方法、程序[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003.CHEN Zu-yu.Stability analysis of soil slope:principles,methods,procedures[M].Beijing:China Water Conservancy and Hydropower Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[9]罗文强,黄润秋,张倬元.斜坡稳定性概率分析的理论与应用[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,2003.LUO Wen-qiang,HUANG Run-qiu,ZHANG Zhuo-yuan.Theory and application about probability analysis on stability of slope[M].Wuhan:China University of Geosciences Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[10]李萍,王秉纲,李同录,等.陕西地区黄土路堑高边坡可靠度研究[J].中国公路学报,2009,22(6):18-25.LI Ping,WANG Bing-gang,LI Tong-lu,et al.Study of relia-bility for loess cutting high slopes in Shaanxi Province[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2009,22(6):18-25.(in Chinese)
[11]王强,刘仰韶,傅旭东,等.砂土路基湿化变形和稳定性的可靠度分析[J].中国公路学报,2007,20(6):7-12.WANG Qiang,LIU Yang-shao,FU Xu-dong,et al.Reliability analysis for wetting deformation and stability of sand soil roadbed[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2007,20(6):7-12.(in Chinese)
[12]李炜,康海贵.边坡稳定性模糊随机可靠度分析[J].交通运输工程学报,2010,10(1):19-23.LI Wei,KANG Hai-gui.Fuzzy-random reliability analysis of slope stability[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,2010,10(1):19-23.(in Chinese)
[13]罗丽娟,赵法锁,胡江洋,等.基于剩余推力法的黄土高边坡稳定性可靠度分析[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2008,28(4):27-31.LUO Li-juan,ZHAO Fa-suo,HU Jiang-yang,et al.Reliability of high loess slope stability based on residual thrust method[J].Journal of Changan University:Natural Science Edition,2008,28(4):27-31.(in Chinese)
[14]苏永华,赵明华,李志勇,等.基于虚拟试验的边坡失稳概率分析方法[J].中国公路学报,2008,21(6):14-19.SU Yong-hua,ZHAO Ming-hua,LI Zhi-yong,et al.Instability probability analysis method of slope based on Dummy Test[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2008,21(6):14-19.(in Chinese)
[15]康海贵,李炜.基于安全系数解析式的边坡稳定评价体系研究[J].中国公路学报,2008,21(3):1-5.KANG Hai-gui,LI Wei.Research on evaluated system for slope reliability based on calculation formula of safety factor[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2008,21(3):1-5.(in Chinese)
[16]DUNCAN J M.Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2000,126(4):307-316.
[17]高江平,李芳.黄土邓肯张模型有限元计算参数的试验[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2006,26(2):10-13,21.GAO Jiang-ping,LI Fang.Experiments on parameters of Duncan-Chang Model for loess[J].Journal of Changan University:Natural Science Edition,2006,26(2):10-13,21.(inChinese)
[18]MALKAWI A I H,HASSAN W F,ABDULLA F A.Uncertainty and reliability analysis applied to slope stability[J].Structural Safety,2000,22(2):161-187.
[19]AUVINET G,GONZALEZ J L.Three-dimensional reliability analysis of earth slopes[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2000,26(3/4):247-261.
[20]BHATTACHARYA G,JANA D,OJHA S,et al.Direct search for minimum reliability index of earth slopes[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2003,30(6):455-462.
[21]雷晓锋,肖曼,张林,等.公路黄土边坡强度参数的选取及应用[J].长安大学学报:自然科学版,2011,31(4):27-33.LEI Xiao-feng,XIAO Man,ZHANG Lin,et al.Selection and application of strength parameters of highway loess slope[J].Journal of Changan University:Natural Science Edition,2011,31(4):27-33.(in Chinese)
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