城市供水管网健康监测与诊断(Ⅰ)——用户流量的预测
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摘要
供水管网运行状态的准确把握对供水管网的健康监测和健康诊断至关重要,而供水管网运行状态准确把握的关键则在于对用户流量的准确把握。本文提出了供水管网用户流量预测的两个方法,EMD分解与自回归模型相结合的方法和逐步回归方法与自回归模型相结合的方法,文中通过一实际供水管网中某用户流量的预测分析并与实际监测值的比较,验证了两个方法的有效性。研究使得城市供水管网健康的在线监测和在线诊断成为可能。
Accurate estimation of the operation status of a water distribution system is essential to health monitoring and diagnosis of the water distribution system,and the key to the estimation of the operation status depends on the accurate estimation of the user's demand.This study proposes two methods for the forecasting of the user's demand in the water distribution system,which are the combination of EMD method and AR model or the combination of progressive regression method and AR model.The effectiveness of the two methods is verified by the comparison of the forecasting of the user's demand in a real water distribution system with the monitoring data.This study makes it possible for the online health monitoring and diagnosis of a water distribution system.
Accurate estimation of the operation status of a water distribution system is essential to health monitoring and diagnosis of the water distribution system,and the key to the estimation of the operation status depends on the accurate estimation of the user's demand.This study proposes two methods for the forecasting of the user's demand in the water distribution system,which are the combination of EMD method and AR model or the combination of progressive regression method and AR model.The effectiveness of the two methods is verified by the comparison of the forecasting of the user's demand in a real water distribution system with the monitoring data.This study makes it possible for the online health monitoring and diagnosis of a water distribution system.
引文
[1]梁建文.供水管网震害位置和震害程度的实时识别[J].地震工程与工程振动(增刊),2000,20(1):220-228.
[2]梁建文,肖笛,赵新华,等.给水管网故障实时诊断方法[J].水利学报,2001,(12):60-67.
[3]朱东海,张土乔,毛根海.城市给水管网爆管点动态定位的神经网络模型研究[J].水利学报,2000(5):1-5.
[4]梁建文,肖笛,张宏伟,等.给水管网故障实时诊断方法(II)[J].自然科学进展,2002,12(9):970-974.
[5]梁建文.Online location of seismic damage to a water distribution system[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2003,2(2):181-187.
[6]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,et al.The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series a-nalysis[J].Proceedings of Royal Society,London,Series A,1998,454:899-995.
[7]杨叔子,吴雅,轩建平,等.时间序列分析的工程应用[M].2版.武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2007.
[8]大崎顺彦(著).地震动的谱分析入门[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[9]张郁山,梁建文,胡聿贤.应用自回归模型处理EMD方法中的边界问题[J].自然科学进展,2003,13(10):1054-1059.
[2]梁建文,肖笛,赵新华,等.给水管网故障实时诊断方法[J].水利学报,2001,(12):60-67.
[3]朱东海,张土乔,毛根海.城市给水管网爆管点动态定位的神经网络模型研究[J].水利学报,2000(5):1-5.
[4]梁建文,肖笛,张宏伟,等.给水管网故障实时诊断方法(II)[J].自然科学进展,2002,12(9):970-974.
[5]梁建文.Online location of seismic damage to a water distribution system[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2003,2(2):181-187.
[6]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,et al.The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series a-nalysis[J].Proceedings of Royal Society,London,Series A,1998,454:899-995.
[7]杨叔子,吴雅,轩建平,等.时间序列分析的工程应用[M].2版.武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2007.
[8]大崎顺彦(著).地震动的谱分析入门[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[9]张郁山,梁建文,胡聿贤.应用自回归模型处理EMD方法中的边界问题[J].自然科学进展,2003,13(10):1054-1059.
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