地震活动图像特征与强震危险区经验性预测依据的初步研究
|
摘要
在研究近期(10年)强震危险性判定和总结四川地区1972~2002年强震预测经验的基础上,清理了中国大陆1920~2002年47次浅源大震事件前地震活动图像特征(M≥4.7),提炼出10个方面12项经验性预测依据:主体活动区、多发时段、关联序列、大陆及地区地震异常图像、地区(带)—地段(震源区)地震增强图像(含信号震、诱发地震、地震条带)、相关地震、窗口地震、复发间隔、大陆及地区缺震、地段缺震与地段强震-缺震转折等。它们在47次震例中的综合出现率≥0.58(即依据比7/12以上)占42例;≥0.66(即8/12以上)占34例。因此,强震(M≥4.7)活动图像经验性预测依据可以作为预测有较大可能发生大地震危险区的依据之一。
According to the studies to judge the risk of a strong earthquake with 10 years scale and the prediction experience of strong earthquakes from 1972 to 2002 in Sichuan province,we summarize the seismicity characteristics before the shallow-focus earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 4.7 occurred in main land of China from 1920 to 2002 and then we put forward 12 empirical prediction indexes from 47 strong earthquakes occurring in main land of China.These indexes include a main seismicity zone,multi-earthquakes period,related seismic series,anomalistic seismicity patterns,increasing seismicity patterns of regions(which include signal earthquakes,induced earthquakes,earthquake zoning),related earthquakes,window earthquakes,recurring intervals,no-earthquakes in some region,no-earthquakes in some belts,and periods between strong and weak seismicities.These comprehensive indexes are tested in the events of 47 earthquakes.These indexes are of valuable in the practice of earthquake prediction.
According to the studies to judge the risk of a strong earthquake with 10 years scale and the prediction experience of strong earthquakes from 1972 to 2002 in Sichuan province,we summarize the seismicity characteristics before the shallow-focus earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 4.7 occurred in main land of China from 1920 to 2002 and then we put forward 12 empirical prediction indexes from 47 strong earthquakes occurring in main land of China.These indexes include a main seismicity zone,multi-earthquakes period,related seismic series,anomalistic seismicity patterns,increasing seismicity patterns of regions(which include signal earthquakes,induced earthquakes,earthquake zoning),related earthquakes,window earthquakes,recurring intervals,no-earthquakes in some region,no-earthquakes in some belts,and periods between strong and weak seismicities.These comprehensive indexes are tested in the events of 47 earthquakes.These indexes are of valuable in the practice of earthquake prediction.
引文
[1]黄圣睦,董瑞英.中国强震活动图象与震预报[M].成都:地图出版社,1997.
[2]黄圣睦,董瑞英.川滇当前强震活动图像特征与地震趋势[J].地震研究,1998,21(1),21-31.
[3]黄圣睦,董瑞英.川滇藏邻界区巴塘-丽江地震块体强震活动特征的初步探讨[J].地震研究,1999,22(1),1-7.
[4]黄圣睦,董瑞英.华北地区强震活动图像特征及强震趋势讨论[J].地震研究,2000,23(3),289-296.
[5]黄圣睦,董瑞英.1997年玛尼7.5级地震2001年昆仑山口8.1级地震震前中长期预测研究[J].四川地震,2002(3),15-20.
[6]黄圣睦,董瑞英.中国大陆近期地震危险性判定经验方法总结与实例研究[J].山西地震,2004(1),32-39.
[7]黄圣睦,董瑞英.1972~20002年四川及邻区强震预测的检验与思考[J],四川地震,2004(2).
①国家“十.五”科技攻关计划课题研究报告,强地震短期预测方法研究.2001BA6001B01成果报告342-351页,(张晓东,2003.11)
[2]黄圣睦,董瑞英.川滇当前强震活动图像特征与地震趋势[J].地震研究,1998,21(1),21-31.
[3]黄圣睦,董瑞英.川滇藏邻界区巴塘-丽江地震块体强震活动特征的初步探讨[J].地震研究,1999,22(1),1-7.
[4]黄圣睦,董瑞英.华北地区强震活动图像特征及强震趋势讨论[J].地震研究,2000,23(3),289-296.
[5]黄圣睦,董瑞英.1997年玛尼7.5级地震2001年昆仑山口8.1级地震震前中长期预测研究[J].四川地震,2002(3),15-20.
[6]黄圣睦,董瑞英.中国大陆近期地震危险性判定经验方法总结与实例研究[J].山西地震,2004(1),32-39.
[7]黄圣睦,董瑞英.1972~20002年四川及邻区强震预测的检验与思考[J],四川地震,2004(2).
①国家“十.五”科技攻关计划课题研究报告,强地震短期预测方法研究.2001BA6001B01成果报告342-351页,(张晓东,2003.11)
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心