综合防御高风险的小概率事件:对日本相继天灾引发大停电及核泄漏事件的思考
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摘要
针对2011年东日本地震、海啸相继天灾引发大停电,进而核泄漏的严重事件,从风险观点反思了对高风险小概率事件认知的不足,并提出应对这类事件的原则。探讨综合防御系统的建设、运行与管理,剖析当前灾害防御体系亟需提升之处,指出坚强智能电网在能源安全与生态安全中的作用。
Cascading disasters of earthquake and tsunami gave rise to blackout and further nuclear leakage in East Japan in 2011.Cognitive deficiencies on small probability events with very high risk are introspected from a viewpoint on risk.Principles coping with such incidents are also proposed.The construction,operation and management of integrated defense systems are discussed,as well as the improvements urgently needed.Finally,the important roles played by strong smart grid in energy security and ecological security are well indicated.
引文
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