基于模糊时序有效聚类的太湖流域汛期分期研究
|
摘要
依据流域暴雨洪水的长期规律对汛期进行合理划分,是确定分期设计洪水与分期汛限水位,进而制定洪水资源利用方案,挖掘洪水资源利用潜力的前提。本文通过引入时间维聚类算子对模糊C-均值聚类方法,以及有效聚类判别函数进行改进,并为消除模糊C-均值聚类方法对初值敏感的问题,用实码加速遗传算法替代迭代方法进行求解,在此基础上建立了基于模糊时序有效聚类的汛期分期方法。将该方法应用于太湖流域汛期分期中,为消除汛期起始点对分期结果敏感性和人为干扰,应用时以防洪规划规定的汛期起始点5月1日为中点,前后推移不同时段构成11个方案分别进行研究。结果表明:本方法有效,提出太湖流域汛期划分为5期的计算结果,经分析是合理的。
Seasonal distribution of precipitation in eastern China affected by monsoon climate is uneven.Formulation of operation scheme of flood level control according to seasonal flood variations is important to flood resources utilization aiming at easing water shortages and improving water environment.Division of basin flood season,a multi-dimensional time series clustering problem with unknown number of cluster,is the premise of designing stage flood and stage flood control level of large water project.Thus,cluster methods are suitable to handle multi-dimensionality,time series and clustering validity,but no one meets all these needs currently so far.This paper puts forward a dynamic fuzzy C-means clustering method and clustering validity function-based time series,based on Xie's previous studies.There remains,however,a complex nonlinear optimal problem in this dynamic method,making it very difficult to solve with regular optimal method.To solve such problem,this paper adopts a real coding-based accelerating genetic algorithm,a very effective algorithm that can overcome the difficulty of initial value sensitivity in regular iterative method for optimization of fuzzy C-means clustering.Thus,by coupling all the methods and techniques above,we establish a new method for flood division,namely dividing flood season method based on fuzzy time series-effective cluster.We also present a set of self-contained steps of model development and an example application to the Taihu basin.This application shows that the new method is very effective and that the dividing scheme so obtained is reasonable.
Seasonal distribution of precipitation in eastern China affected by monsoon climate is uneven.Formulation of operation scheme of flood level control according to seasonal flood variations is important to flood resources utilization aiming at easing water shortages and improving water environment.Division of basin flood season,a multi-dimensional time series clustering problem with unknown number of cluster,is the premise of designing stage flood and stage flood control level of large water project.Thus,cluster methods are suitable to handle multi-dimensionality,time series and clustering validity,but no one meets all these needs currently so far.This paper puts forward a dynamic fuzzy C-means clustering method and clustering validity function-based time series,based on Xie's previous studies.There remains,however,a complex nonlinear optimal problem in this dynamic method,making it very difficult to solve with regular optimal method.To solve such problem,this paper adopts a real coding-based accelerating genetic algorithm,a very effective algorithm that can overcome the difficulty of initial value sensitivity in regular iterative method for optimization of fuzzy C-means clustering.Thus,by coupling all the methods and techniques above,we establish a new method for flood division,namely dividing flood season method based on fuzzy time series-effective cluster.We also present a set of self-contained steps of model development and an example application to the Taihu basin.This application shows that the new method is very effective and that the dividing scheme so obtained is reasonable.
引文
[1]吴浩云,管惟庆.1991年太湖流域洪水[M].中国水利水电出版社,1999.WU Haoyun,GUAN Weiqing.Flood in the Taihu Basin 1991[M].China WaterPower Press,1999.(in Chinese)
[2]刘攀,郭生练,肖义,等.水库分期汛限水位的优化设计研究[J].水力发电学报,2007,26(3):5-10.LIU Pan,GUO Shenglian,XIAO Yi,et al.Study on the optimal reservoir seasonal flood control water level[J].Journal ofHydroelectric Engineering,2007,26(3):5-10.(in Chinese)
[3]杜丽惠,曹亮,廖松.密云水库动态汛限水位分析[J].水力发电学报,2005,24(4):42-46.DU Lihui,CAO Liang,LIAO Song.Analysis of the dynamical flood control level of Miyun reservoir[J].Journal of HydroelectricEngineering,2005,24(4):42-46.(in Chinese)
[4]王宗志,王银堂,胡四一.水库控制流域汛期分期的有效聚类分析[J].水科学进展,2007,18(4):580-585.WANG Zongzhi,WANG Yintang,HU Siyi.Effective fuzzy cluster method for dividing reservoir flood season[J].Advances in WaterScience,2007,18(4):580-585.(in Chinese)
[5]陈守煜.从研究汛期描述水文系统模糊集分析的方法论[J].水科学进展,1995,6(2):133-138.CHEN Shouyu.Methodology of fuzzy sets analysis to hydrologic system from research on flood period description[J].Advances inWater Science,1995,6(2):133-138.(in Chinese)
[6]高波,刘克琳,王银堂,等.系统聚类法在水库汛期分期中的应用[J].水利水电技术,2005,36(6):1-5.GAO Bo,LIU Kelin,WANG Yintang,et al.Application of system clustering method to dividing flood season of reservoir[J].WaterResources and Hydropower Engineering,2005,36(6):1-5.(in Chinese)
[7]刘攀,郭生练,王才君,等.三峡水库汛期分期的变点分析方法研究[J].水文,2005,25(1):18-22.LIU Pan,GUO Shenglian,WANG Caijun,et al.Flood season staged for Three Gorges reservoir based on the change-point approach[J].Hydrology,2005,25(1):18-22.(in Chinese)
[8]和宏伟,张爱玲.Fisher最优分割法在云南地震分期中的应用[J].地震研究,1994,17(3):231-239.HE Hongwei,ZHANG Ailing.The application of fisher method to dividing seismicity period in Yunnan province[J].Journal ofSeismological Research,1994,17(3):231-239.(in Chinese)
[9]高新波,谢维信.模糊聚类理论发展及应用的研究进展[J].科学通报,1999,44(21):2241-2248.GAO Xinbo,XIE Weixin.Fuzzy clustering theory development and application research progress[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,1999,44(21):2241-2248.(in Chinese)
[10]王宗志,金菊良,洪天求.巢湖流域非点源污染物来源的模糊聚类对应分析方法[J].土壤学报,2006,43(2):328-331.WANG Zongzhi,JIN Juliang,HONG Tianqiu.Fuzzy clustering based correspondence factor analysis method for non-point sourcepollutionin Chaohu drainage basin[J].Acta Pedologica Sinica,2006,43(2):328-331.(in Chinese)
[11]Xuanli lisa Xie,Gerardo Beni.A new fuzzy clustering validity and its application to color image segmentation[A].In Proceedings ofthe IEEE International Symposium on Intelligent Control[C].Arlington,Virginia,U S A,1991.
[12]金菊良,杨晓华,丁晶.标准遗传算法的改进方案—加速遗传算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(4):8-13.JIN Juliang,YANG Xiaohua,DING Jing.The standard genetic algorithm the improvement scheme accelerating genetic algorithm[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2001,21(4):8-13.(in Chinese)
[2]刘攀,郭生练,肖义,等.水库分期汛限水位的优化设计研究[J].水力发电学报,2007,26(3):5-10.LIU Pan,GUO Shenglian,XIAO Yi,et al.Study on the optimal reservoir seasonal flood control water level[J].Journal ofHydroelectric Engineering,2007,26(3):5-10.(in Chinese)
[3]杜丽惠,曹亮,廖松.密云水库动态汛限水位分析[J].水力发电学报,2005,24(4):42-46.DU Lihui,CAO Liang,LIAO Song.Analysis of the dynamical flood control level of Miyun reservoir[J].Journal of HydroelectricEngineering,2005,24(4):42-46.(in Chinese)
[4]王宗志,王银堂,胡四一.水库控制流域汛期分期的有效聚类分析[J].水科学进展,2007,18(4):580-585.WANG Zongzhi,WANG Yintang,HU Siyi.Effective fuzzy cluster method for dividing reservoir flood season[J].Advances in WaterScience,2007,18(4):580-585.(in Chinese)
[5]陈守煜.从研究汛期描述水文系统模糊集分析的方法论[J].水科学进展,1995,6(2):133-138.CHEN Shouyu.Methodology of fuzzy sets analysis to hydrologic system from research on flood period description[J].Advances inWater Science,1995,6(2):133-138.(in Chinese)
[6]高波,刘克琳,王银堂,等.系统聚类法在水库汛期分期中的应用[J].水利水电技术,2005,36(6):1-5.GAO Bo,LIU Kelin,WANG Yintang,et al.Application of system clustering method to dividing flood season of reservoir[J].WaterResources and Hydropower Engineering,2005,36(6):1-5.(in Chinese)
[7]刘攀,郭生练,王才君,等.三峡水库汛期分期的变点分析方法研究[J].水文,2005,25(1):18-22.LIU Pan,GUO Shenglian,WANG Caijun,et al.Flood season staged for Three Gorges reservoir based on the change-point approach[J].Hydrology,2005,25(1):18-22.(in Chinese)
[8]和宏伟,张爱玲.Fisher最优分割法在云南地震分期中的应用[J].地震研究,1994,17(3):231-239.HE Hongwei,ZHANG Ailing.The application of fisher method to dividing seismicity period in Yunnan province[J].Journal ofSeismological Research,1994,17(3):231-239.(in Chinese)
[9]高新波,谢维信.模糊聚类理论发展及应用的研究进展[J].科学通报,1999,44(21):2241-2248.GAO Xinbo,XIE Weixin.Fuzzy clustering theory development and application research progress[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,1999,44(21):2241-2248.(in Chinese)
[10]王宗志,金菊良,洪天求.巢湖流域非点源污染物来源的模糊聚类对应分析方法[J].土壤学报,2006,43(2):328-331.WANG Zongzhi,JIN Juliang,HONG Tianqiu.Fuzzy clustering based correspondence factor analysis method for non-point sourcepollutionin Chaohu drainage basin[J].Acta Pedologica Sinica,2006,43(2):328-331.(in Chinese)
[11]Xuanli lisa Xie,Gerardo Beni.A new fuzzy clustering validity and its application to color image segmentation[A].In Proceedings ofthe IEEE International Symposium on Intelligent Control[C].Arlington,Virginia,U S A,1991.
[12]金菊良,杨晓华,丁晶.标准遗传算法的改进方案—加速遗传算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(4):8-13.JIN Juliang,YANG Xiaohua,DING Jing.The standard genetic algorithm the improvement scheme accelerating genetic algorithm[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2001,21(4):8-13.(in Chinese)
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心