群体砌体建筑的易损性分析及震害预测
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摘要
为了对地震灾后的群体砌体建筑进行快速灾害评价与预测,提出快速预测群体砌体建筑的震后易损性分析与震害预测方法.首先通过灰色关联度分析,选取对砌体建筑抗震性能影响较大的5个影响因子,然后通过对砌体建筑进行易损性分析得到不同抗震性能影响因子的属性值,再通过熵权法计算砌体建筑影响因子的权重,最后应用提出的新相似度加权计算公式计算不同砌体建筑的相似度,从而对群体砌体建筑的震害进行快速评估.为了验证所提方法的有效性,分别选取两栋福州地区典型的砌体建筑进行预测并与超越倍率预测法进行比较.研究发现,所提出的方法不仅选取的影响因子更全面、更能反映不同建设年代建筑的抗震能力,且可从房屋普查资料中获取而不需知道建筑物的各种力学参数,能够对实际的群体砌体建筑进行快速、准确的震后震害预测与评估.
In order to quickly assess and predict the earthquake damage,a new vulnerability analysis and seismic damage method of masonry building group is proposed in this paper.In this method,on the basis of the grey correlation analysis,five important impact factors are determined for representing of the seismic behaviors of masonry buildings.After vulnerability analysis is performed for masonry buildings,the attribute values of different seismic performance impact factors are attained,and then the entropy-weight method is used to analyze the weight of each impact factor.Finally,the new similarity-weight formula is presented to analyze the similarity of different masonry buildings,consequently the earthquake damage assessment and prediction is performed quickly for masonry building group.To verify the effectiveness of the presented method,two typical masonry buildings in Fuzhou are employed to predict the earthquake damage and a comparison is made with the presented method and the excess multiplication factor.The study shows that the presented earthquake damage prediction method can not only quickly assess and predict the earthquake damage of masonry building group,but also effectively select the important impact factors,which is capable of comprehensive and reflecting seismic behaviors for masonry buildings built in different era,and which are obtained only from general survey but not mechanical parameters in details.
In order to quickly assess and predict the earthquake damage,a new vulnerability analysis and seismic damage method of masonry building group is proposed in this paper.In this method,on the basis of the grey correlation analysis,five important impact factors are determined for representing of the seismic behaviors of masonry buildings.After vulnerability analysis is performed for masonry buildings,the attribute values of different seismic performance impact factors are attained,and then the entropy-weight method is used to analyze the weight of each impact factor.Finally,the new similarity-weight formula is presented to analyze the similarity of different masonry buildings,consequently the earthquake damage assessment and prediction is performed quickly for masonry building group.To verify the effectiveness of the presented method,two typical masonry buildings in Fuzhou are employed to predict the earthquake damage and a comparison is made with the presented method and the excess multiplication factor.The study shows that the presented earthquake damage prediction method can not only quickly assess and predict the earthquake damage of masonry building group,but also effectively select the important impact factors,which is capable of comprehensive and reflecting seismic behaviors for masonry buildings built in different era,and which are obtained only from general survey but not mechanical parameters in details.
引文
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[11]聂永安,吴国有,冯裕中,等.建筑物震害的类比预测方法研究[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(4):115-117.
[12]谭克坚,曹晖,毛沂.建筑体型震害模糊评判专家系统[J].重庆建筑大学学报,1997,19(6):108-112.
[13]傅立.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1992:185-186.
[14]赵艳林.工程中的灰色决策理论与应用[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学,1999:99-100.
[15]王茜,王雁凌,张粒子,等.影响电力需求预测各因子的客观权重分配方法[J].电网技术,2008,32(5):82-86.
[16]谢全敏.滑坡灾害评价及其治理优化决策新方法[M].武汉:武汉理工大学出版社,2008:94-107.
[2]Charles A.Hazus earthquake loss estimation methods[J].Natural Hazards Review,2006,7(2):45-59.
[3]胡少卿.针对已有震害矩阵模拟的群体震害预测方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2005,25(6):103-108.
[4]刘章军,叶燎原.基于模糊概率的多层砖房震害预测[J].地震研究,2007,30(1):99-103.
[5]Calvi G M A.Displacement-based approach for vulnerability evaluation of classes of building[J].Journal of Earthquake Engi-neering,1999,3(3):411-438.
[6]毕可为.群体建筑的易损性分析和地震损失快速评估[D].大连:大连理工大学,2009:17-43.
[7]尹之潜.地震损失分析与设防标准[M].北京:地震出版社,2004:87-112.
[8]刘本玉,江见鲸,叶燎原,等.多层砖房震害因子的选择及其与震害程度的灰色关联序分析[J].地震研究,2001,24(2):150-155.
[9]成小平,胡聿贤,帅向华.基于神经网络模型的房屋震害易损性估计方法[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(2):68-73.
[10]刘本玉,叶燎原,江见鲸.用模糊人工神经网络方法预测多层砖房震害[J].清华大学学报:自然科学版,2002,42(6):843-846.
[11]聂永安,吴国有,冯裕中,等.建筑物震害的类比预测方法研究[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(4):115-117.
[12]谭克坚,曹晖,毛沂.建筑体型震害模糊评判专家系统[J].重庆建筑大学学报,1997,19(6):108-112.
[13]傅立.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学技术文献出版社,1992:185-186.
[14]赵艳林.工程中的灰色决策理论与应用[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学,1999:99-100.
[15]王茜,王雁凌,张粒子,等.影响电力需求预测各因子的客观权重分配方法[J].电网技术,2008,32(5):82-86.
[16]谢全敏.滑坡灾害评价及其治理优化决策新方法[M].武汉:武汉理工大学出版社,2008:94-107.
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