南水北调西线工程技术经济分析
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摘要
南水北调西线工程处于相对稳定区,大坝、深埋长隧洞的施工技术可行;工程效益显著,经济上合理,项目的经济内部收益率为11.8%,经济净现值为1083.95亿元,经济效益费用比为1.7。该工程除了可以定量计算的效益外,更具有重要的社会、生态和环境效益,可促进黄河流域和西北地区乃至北方地区经济社会可持续发展和和生态环境良性维持。该工程向黄河增补水资源,可全面缓解黄河水资源供需矛盾,保护和改善生态环境。通过黄河干流各水库的调蓄作用,调水可有效增加黄河干流上水电站的梯级发电量。该工程对受水区的影响包括:1)供水范围广,影响大;2)维持黄河健康生命;3)改善受水区生态环境;4)维持国家生态安全。该工程对调出区社会经济的有利影响包括:1)为当地经济发展带来机遇;2)促进当地经济结构的升级;3)推动当地城市化的进程;4)提高当地居民的科学文化素质。对调出区社会经济的不利影响包括:1)对库区农牧业生产活动产生不利影响;2)对移民安置及宗教设施处理产生不利影响;3)对推荐坝址下游的水电资源开发产生不利影响。
The western route project is in a relatively stable area and the construction technology of dam and long deep tunnel is feasible. This project is economically reasonable, with 11.8% economic internal rate of return, 108.395 billion Yuan economic net present value, and 1.7 economic benefits cost ratio. In addition to the quantitative calculation of the benefits of the project, there are more important social and environmental benefits. The project promotes the economic and social development of Yellow River Basin and the Northwestern area. This project enlarges the water supply of Yellow River and alleviates substantially the contradiction between supply and demand of the Yellow River water resources, and further protects and improves the ecological environment. The effects of this project on the intake areas include: 1) the range of the water supply is extensive; 2) maintain the ecological development of Yellow River; 3) improve the ecological environment of the intake areas; 4) maintain the ecological safety of China. The project’s positive effects on the society and economy of the water supply areas include: 1) bring economic opportunities for the water supply areas; 2) promote the upgrading of local economic structure; 3) promote the urbanization of water supply areas; 4) improve local citizens’ scientific and cultural quality. The project’s negative effects on the society and economy of water supply areas include: 1) the adverse impact on farming industry of water supply areas; 2) the adverse impact on migrates and religious facilities; 3) the adverse impact on the development of hydroelectric resources of downstream areas.
The western route project is in a relatively stable area and the construction technology of dam and long deep tunnel is feasible. This project is economically reasonable, with 11.8% economic internal rate of return, 108.395 billion Yuan economic net present value, and 1.7 economic benefits cost ratio. In addition to the quantitative calculation of the benefits of the project, there are more important social and environmental benefits. The project promotes the economic and social development of Yellow River Basin and the Northwestern area. This project enlarges the water supply of Yellow River and alleviates substantially the contradiction between supply and demand of the Yellow River water resources, and further protects and improves the ecological environment. The effects of this project on the intake areas include: 1) the range of the water supply is extensive; 2) maintain the ecological development of Yellow River; 3) improve the ecological environment of the intake areas; 4) maintain the ecological safety of China. The project’s positive effects on the society and economy of the water supply areas include: 1) bring economic opportunities for the water supply areas; 2) promote the upgrading of local economic structure; 3) promote the urbanization of water supply areas; 4) improve local citizens’ scientific and cultural quality. The project’s negative effects on the society and economy of water supply areas include: 1) the adverse impact on farming industry of water supply areas; 2) the adverse impact on migrates and religious facilities; 3) the adverse impact on the development of hydroelectric resources of downstream areas.
引文
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[12]周荣军,黄润秋,雷建成,等.四川汶川8.0级地震地表破裂与震害特点[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(11):21732183.
[13]中华人民共和国行业标准编写组.DL/T5335-2006水电水利工程区域构造稳定性勘察技术规程[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2006:5354.
[14]牛广尧,汪雪英.南水北调西线工程深埋长隧洞施工关键技术问题与研究[C]//中国水利水电勘测设计协会.调水工程应用技术研究与实践.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009:421425.
[15]杨维九.莱索托高原调水工程[J].南水北调与水利科技,2004,2(4):5356.
[16]杨维九,谈英武.希腊雅典调水二期工程[J].南水北调与水利科技,2009,(1):8990.
[2]黄河勘测规划设计有限公司.南水北调西线第一期工程项目建议书综合说明书[R].郑州:黄河勘测规划设计有限公司,2009:1308.
[3]崔荃,刘钢.朔天运河技术可行性分析[J].人民黄河,1999,(6):3942.
[4]水利部黄河水利委员会勘察规划设计研究院.南水北调西线调水工作综述[R].郑州:水利部黄河水利委员会勘察规划设计研究院,2000:1223.
[5]王学潮.南水北调西线工程若干工程地质问题研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,29(9):17451756.
[6]中国地震局地质研究所.南水北调西线一期工程沿线断裂活动性评价与地震区划报告[R].北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2008.
[7]王学潮,杨维九,刘丰收.南水北调西线一期工程的工程地质和岩石力学问题[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(20):36033613.
[8]王学潮,马国彦.南水北调西线工程及其主要工程地质问题[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(1):3845.
[9]谢和平,邓建辉,台佳佳,等.汶川大地震灾害与灾区重建的岩土工程问题[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(9):17811791.
[10]陈生水,霍家平,章为民.“5.12”汶川地震对紫坪铺混凝土面板坝的影响及原因分析[J].岩土工程学报,2008,30(6):795801.
[11]熊堃,何蕴龙,张艳锋.“5.12”汶川地震时冶勒大坝实测动力反应[J].岩土工程学报,2008,30(10):15751880.
[12]周荣军,黄润秋,雷建成,等.四川汶川8.0级地震地表破裂与震害特点[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(11):21732183.
[13]中华人民共和国行业标准编写组.DL/T5335-2006水电水利工程区域构造稳定性勘察技术规程[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2006:5354.
[14]牛广尧,汪雪英.南水北调西线工程深埋长隧洞施工关键技术问题与研究[C]//中国水利水电勘测设计协会.调水工程应用技术研究与实践.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009:421425.
[15]杨维九.莱索托高原调水工程[J].南水北调与水利科技,2004,2(4):5356.
[16]杨维九,谈英武.希腊雅典调水二期工程[J].南水北调与水利科技,2009,(1):8990.
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