北天山西段中强地震应力触发作用初步研究
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摘要
计算了新疆北天山西段1944年以来部分5级以上地震产生的静态库仑破裂应力变化(ΔCFS),分析该区先发生的中强震产生的累加库仑应力变化以及单个中强地震对后续地震的触发作用。研究中依据静态库仑破裂应力变化的空间分布确定后续地震活动的可能增强区范围,应用累积贝尼奥夫应变研究增强区内中等地震活动的加速矩释放特征,定量论证中强震产生的库仑应力变化对后续地震产生的影响的可靠性。结果表明,北天山西段多数中强震产生的ΔCFS有利于其邻区后续中强震的发生,其中正ΔCFS区是后续中强地震的可能发生地点,该区中强震产生的库仑应力变化作用的时空影响范围分别为几天至几十年1、00 km范围内,这为未来地震趋势判定提供了依据。
The article calculates the static Coulomb failure stress change(ΔCFS) of some MS≥5 earthquakes since 1944 in the western part of Northern Tianshan mountain,in Xinjiang,and analyzes the triggering on the following mid-strong earthquakes from accumulative ΔCFS of previous mid-strong earthquakes and from the single mid-strong earthquakes.According to the spatial distribution of static ΔCFS,the article defines the possible active region of the following earthquake activity,and analyzes accelerating moment release character of medium earthquake activity in the active region with accumulative Benioff strain method,and proves the reliability of the action on the following earthquakes from ΔCFS of mid-strong earthquakes.The conclusion shows that ΔCFS from most mid-strong earthquakes in the western part of Northern Tianshan mountains encourage the following ones around its region,and positive ΔCFS region is possible risk region.The temporal and spatial range of Coulomb stress change from mid-strong earthquakes in the region,is respectively several days to tens of years,and within 100 km,which offers the criterion of future seismic trend.
The article calculates the static Coulomb failure stress change(ΔCFS) of some MS≥5 earthquakes since 1944 in the western part of Northern Tianshan mountain,in Xinjiang,and analyzes the triggering on the following mid-strong earthquakes from accumulative ΔCFS of previous mid-strong earthquakes and from the single mid-strong earthquakes.According to the spatial distribution of static ΔCFS,the article defines the possible active region of the following earthquake activity,and analyzes accelerating moment release character of medium earthquake activity in the active region with accumulative Benioff strain method,and proves the reliability of the action on the following earthquakes from ΔCFS of mid-strong earthquakes.The conclusion shows that ΔCFS from most mid-strong earthquakes in the western part of Northern Tianshan mountains encourage the following ones around its region,and positive ΔCFS region is possible risk region.The temporal and spatial range of Coulomb stress change from mid-strong earthquakes in the region,is respectively several days to tens of years,and within 100 km,which offers the criterion of future seismic trend.
引文
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[13]Stein RS,Barka AA,DieterichJ H.Progressive failure onthe North Anatolianfault since 1939 by earthquake stresstrigger-ing[J].Geophys J Int,1997,128:594-604.
[2]Reasenberg P A,Si mpson R W.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prieta earth-quake[J].Science,1992,255:1 687-1 690.
[3]万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.地震应力触发研究[J].地震学报,2002,24(5):533-551.
[4]Jaume S C,Sykes L R.Evolving towards a critical point:a reviewof accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior tolargeand great earthquake[J].Pure App1 Geophys,1999,155:279-306.
[5]Bowman D D,King G C P.Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes[J].Geophys Res Lett,2001,28:4 039-4 042.
[6]马禾青,赵卫明,张文孝,等.地震活动加速模型在西北地区的应用[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(4):344-347.
[7]蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.中强震前地震活动矩释放加速现象(AMR)的普遍性问题[J].中国地震,2004,20(2):119-125.
[8]周仕勇.新疆境内北天山西段地震活动图像的定量研究[J].内陆地震,1992,6(4):335-339.
[9]郝平,田勤俭,傅征祥,等.2000年1月15日姚安6.5级地震较强余震的应力触发[J].地震研究,2004,27(3):246-251.
[10]Okada Y.Internal deformation due to shear andtensile faultsin a half-space[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,1992,82:1 0l8-1 040.
[11]Bufe C G,Varnes DJ.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco Bay Region[J].J Geophys Res,1993,98:9 871-9 883.
[12]Troise C,De Natale G,Pingue F,et al.Evidence for static stress interaction among earthquakes in south-central Apennines(Italy)[J].Geophys J Int,1998,134:809-817.
[13]Stein RS,Barka AA,DieterichJ H.Progressive failure onthe North Anatolianfault since 1939 by earthquake stresstrigger-ing[J].Geophys J Int,1997,128:594-604.
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