基于显著性检验的地震趋势判定指标研究
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摘要
提出了一种以统计学中的假设检验为基础的地震趋势判别指标提取的方法,以中国大陆1930年以来的年地震频次为例,给出了判定中国大陆地区发生7级以上地震的5级以上地震年频次判别指标。研究结果表明,当5级以上地震年频次Na5≥31时,可判定其后第6年不发生7级以上地震,为无震判别条件;当Na5≤10时,可判定其后第6年会发生7级以上地震,为有震判别条件;当11≤Na5≤30时,不能判定其后是否会发生7级以上地震;当Na5≥24时,可判定其后第6年无7级以上地震发生,为无震判别条件,犯错误的可能性为5%。2002年的5级以上地震年频次Na5=7,满足有震判别条件,因此可以作出2008年中国大陆地区可能发生7级以上地震的判定。2003年的5级以上地震年频次Na5=28,满足无震判别条件Na5≥24,可判定2009年不会发生7级以上地震,犯错误的可能性为5%。该方法也适用于其他地震活动和前兆异常判别指标的提取。
A method used for finding the criterion for estimating earthquake tendency based on the hypothesis test of significance is proposed in this paper.Taking the annual number data of earthquakes since 1930 as an example,the criterion for estimating the possibility of occurrence for earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 in mainland China by using annual number of earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 5 is obtained.The results show that when annual number of earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than five Na5 is equal to or greater than 31,we could make judgment that there would be no earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in the following sixth year,when Na5 is less than or equal to 10,we could make judgment that there would be some earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in the following sixth year,when Na5 is in the range from 11 to 30,we can not make any judgment about whether there would be any earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in the following sixth year or not,and when Na5 is equal to or greater than 24,we could also make judgment that there would be no earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in the following sixth year,but the possibility of making a mistake is 5%.Since Na5 in 2002 is 7,it can be predicted that there would be some earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in mainland China in 2008.Na5 in 2003 is 28,it can be predicted that there would be no earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in mainland China in 2009 with the possibility of 5% for making a mistake.This method is also used for finding the criterion of other seismic or aseismic observation items for estimating seismicity tendency.
A method used for finding the criterion for estimating earthquake tendency based on the hypothesis test of significance is proposed in this paper.Taking the annual number data of earthquakes since 1930 as an example,the criterion for estimating the possibility of occurrence for earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 in mainland China by using annual number of earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 5 is obtained.The results show that when annual number of earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than five Na5 is equal to or greater than 31,we could make judgment that there would be no earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in the following sixth year,when Na5 is less than or equal to 10,we could make judgment that there would be some earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in the following sixth year,when Na5 is in the range from 11 to 30,we can not make any judgment about whether there would be any earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in the following sixth year or not,and when Na5 is equal to or greater than 24,we could also make judgment that there would be no earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in the following sixth year,but the possibility of making a mistake is 5%.Since Na5 in 2002 is 7,it can be predicted that there would be some earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in mainland China in 2008.Na5 in 2003 is 28,it can be predicted that there would be no earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in mainland China in 2009 with the possibility of 5% for making a mistake.This method is also used for finding the criterion of other seismic or aseismic observation items for estimating seismicity tendency.
引文
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[7]王晓青,傅征祥,蒋铭.2005年前中国大陆地震震级概率预测[J].地震学报,1996,18(4):420-426.
[8]张敏强.教育与心理统计学[M].北京:人民教育出版社,2002.277-280.
[9]张天中.华北长期地震活动的非稳定泊松模型[J].地震学报,1993,15(4):514-516.
[10]张天中,王林瑛,刘庆芳.地震短期预测的概率方法浅议[J].国际地震动态,1998,(7):1-5.
[11]张天中,王林瑛,刘庆芳,等.概率方法应用于地震短期预测的探索[J].地震,1999,19(2):135-141.
[12]张天中,王林瑛,刘庆芳,等.条件概率法在地震预测指标判别中的应用[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1999,20(1A):138-140.
[13]Vere-Jones D.Earthquake prediction-a Stastistician′s view[J].J Phys Earth,1978,26:129-146.
[2]维尔琼斯.戴维.对分析预报中心发展统计学方法的建议[J].国际地震动态,1997,(4):8-12.
[3]傅征祥,王晓青.未来地震震级概率预测方法探讨[J].地震,1993,13(1):5-9.
[4]傅征祥,粟生平,王晓青.地震发生非稳态泊松过程和中长期概率预测研究[J].地震,1998,18(2):105-111.
[5]傅征祥,丁香,王晓青.2020年前中国大陆发生7级以上大地震频次和最大震级预测的初步研究[J].地震,2006,26(1):35-39.
[6]马秀芳,傅丽萍.爆发余震与强震关系的统计检验[J].地震学报,1991,13(3):273-280.
[7]王晓青,傅征祥,蒋铭.2005年前中国大陆地震震级概率预测[J].地震学报,1996,18(4):420-426.
[8]张敏强.教育与心理统计学[M].北京:人民教育出版社,2002.277-280.
[9]张天中.华北长期地震活动的非稳定泊松模型[J].地震学报,1993,15(4):514-516.
[10]张天中,王林瑛,刘庆芳.地震短期预测的概率方法浅议[J].国际地震动态,1998,(7):1-5.
[11]张天中,王林瑛,刘庆芳,等.概率方法应用于地震短期预测的探索[J].地震,1999,19(2):135-141.
[12]张天中,王林瑛,刘庆芳,等.条件概率法在地震预测指标判别中的应用[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1999,20(1A):138-140.
[13]Vere-Jones D.Earthquake prediction-a Stastistician′s view[J].J Phys Earth,1978,26:129-146.
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