地震预报和某些新的理论探索
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摘要
首先回顾了地震预报的某些理论,特别是笔者提出的地震震级-周期公式及其定量预测,然后讨论了非线性地震学及Lorenz模型和混沌、分形等,Lorenz模型可以由协同学的基本方程得到,最后论述了可以从各个不同方面探索地震的周期性,并讨论了相关的某些理论.广泛结合地震预报的各种方法将可以大大提高精确度,特别是短临预报能力.
Some theories of earthquake forecast are reviewed,in which the magnitude-period formula of earthquake proposed by the author and its quantitative forecast are especially expounded.Next,the nonlinear seismology,the Lorenz model,chaos and fractal,etc.,are discussed.Moreover,the Lorenz model may be obtained from the basic equations of synergetics.Finally,the periodicity of earthquake may be proved from various different aspects,and some corresponding theories are researched.The precision of earthquake forecast,in particular,the short-time forecast power,will be improved if various methods of forecast are widely combined.
Some theories of earthquake forecast are reviewed,in which the magnitude-period formula of earthquake proposed by the author and its quantitative forecast are especially expounded.Next,the nonlinear seismology,the Lorenz model,chaos and fractal,etc.,are discussed.Moreover,the Lorenz model may be obtained from the basic equations of synergetics.Finally,the periodicity of earthquake may be proved from various different aspects,and some corresponding theories are researched.The precision of earthquake forecast,in particular,the short-time forecast power,will be improved if various methods of forecast are widely combined.
引文
[1]GELLER R J,JACKSON D D,KAGAN Y Y,et al.Earthquakes Cannot be Predicted[J].Science,1997,275:1616-1 617.
[2]力武常次.地震预报[M].冯锐,周新华,译.北京:地震出版社,1978.
[3]浅田敏.地震预报方法[M].强祖基,译.北京:地震出版社,1987.
[4][苏]凯里斯鲍罗克.中期地震预报[M].陈颙,译.北京:地震出版社.1991.
[5]SCHOLZ C H,SYKES L R,AGGARWAL Y P.Earthquake Prediction:A Physical Basis[J].Science,1973,181:803-809.
[6]KASAHARA K.Earthquake Mechanics[M].Cambridgo:Cambridge University Press,1981.
[7]SCHOLZ C H.The Critical Slip Distance for Seismic Faulting[J].Nature,1988:336,761-763.
[8]BORODICH M.Renormalization Schemes for Earthquake Prediction[J].Geophys.J.Int.(UK),1997,131(1):171-178.
[9]GELLER RJ.Earthquake Prediction:A Critical Review[J].Geophys.J.Int.,1997,131(2):425-450.
[10]JULIAN B R,MILLEER A D,FOULGEER G R.Non-Double-Couple Earthquakes.1.Theory;2.Observations[J].Rev.Geophys.,1998,36(4):525-549;551-568.
[11]CHAKRADARTI B K,STINCHCOMBE R B.Stick-Slip Statistics for Two Fractal Surfaces:A Model for Earthquakes[J].Physica,1999,A270(1-2):27-34.
[12]RUBIN A M,GILLARD D,GOTJ L.Streaks of Microearthquakes Along Creeping Faults[J].Nature,400,6745,635-641(1999).
[13]LU C,VERE-JONES D,TAKAYASU H,et al.Spatio-Temporal Seismicity in an Elastic Block Model[J].Fractals,1999,7(3):301-311.
[14]GERSTENBERGER MC,WIEMER S,JONES L M,et al.Real-Ti me Forecasts of Tomorrow’s Earthquakes in Cali-fornia[J].Nature,2005,435(7040):328-331.
[15]WIENS D A,ANANDAKRISHNAN S,WINBERRYJ P,et al.Si multaneous Teleseismic and Geodetic Observationsof the Stick-Slip Motion of an Antarctic Ice Stream[J].Nature,2008,453(7196):770-774.
[16]张铁铮.应用磁暴预报地震的探讨[J].地震战线,1971,4,45-54.
[17]耿庆国.中国旱震关系研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,1985.
[18]李全林,于渌,郝柏林,等.地震频度-震级关系的时空扫描[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.
[19]徐道一,郑文振,安振声,等.天体运行与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[20]杜品仁,徐道一.天文地震学引论[M].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[21]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[22]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.
[23]郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因和地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.
[24]栾巨庆.星体运动与长期天气、地震预报[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,1988.
[25]赵洪声,张世杰.天-气-地耦合与地震预报[M].昆明:云南大学出版社,1994.
[26]梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社.1993.
[27]蒋锦昌,陈德玉.地震生物学概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
[28]李善邦.中国地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[29]张一方.天地变化的周期性和地震周期的探索[M].昆明:云南科技出版社,1989:259-269.
[30]张一方.地震震级-周期公式及其初步应用[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,1990,12(4):371-375.
[31]张一方.地震的非线性动力学系统的探索[J].大自然探索,1997,16(3):51-55.
[32]张一方.地震震级-周期公式的一些应用[J].云南师范大学学报:自然科学版,1998,18(1):103-107.
[33]张一方.地震的非线性动力学和定量预测[J].国际地震动态,2004(z1):16.
[34]CHANG Yi-fang.Three Ways of Earthquake Prediction[J].J.Rel.Psych.Res.,2004,27(3):126-130.
[35]CHANG Yi-fang.Nonlinear Dynamics and Forecasts on Earthquake[J].Matter Regularity,2007,7(1):6-12.
[36]CHANG Yi-fang.Nonlinear Dynamics,Magnitude-Period Formula and Forecasts on Earthquake[J].ArXiv,2008,0802(0225):1-7.
[37]TURCOTTE D L,SCHUBERT G.Geodynamics[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons,1982.
[38]刘正荣.地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,2007.
[39]郑联达.大地震规律研究[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,1996.
[40]C.龙尼兹.地震预报的物理学和玄学[C]//大陆地震活动和地震预报国际学术讨论会论文集.北京:地震出版社,1984:432-437.
[41]TURCOTTE D L.Fractals and Chaos in Geology,and Geophysics[M].Cambridge:Cambridge UniversityPress,1992.
[42]LEVIN B W.Nonlinear Oscillating Structures in the Earthquake and Seaquake Dynamics[J].Chaos,1996,6(3):405-413.
[43]FREED A M,LINJ.Delayed Triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake by Viscoelastic Stress Transfer[J].Na-ture,2001,411(6 834):180-183.
[44]ANDREWS D J.Coupling of Energy Between Tectonic Processes and Earthquakes[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1978,B83(5):2 259-2 264.
[45]ROBINSON D P,HENRY C,DAS S,et al.Si multaneous Rupture Along Two Conjugate Planes of the Wharton BasinEarthquake[J].Science,2001,292(5 519):1 145-1 148.
[46]CHANG Yi-fang.Nonlinear Dynamics,Lorenz Model and Formation of Binary Stars[J].ArXiv,2008,0806(0188):1-8.
[47]安艺敬一.断层力学物理模型在地震预报中的应用[C]//大陆地震活动和地震预报国际学术讨论会论文集.北京:地震出版社,1984:403-408.
[48]PARSONS T,TODA S,STEIN R S,et al.Heightened Odds of Large Earthquarkes Near Istanbul:An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation[J].Science,2000,288(5 466):661-665.
[49]张一方.粒子的分形模型、复数维及其意义[J].大自然探索,1988,7(2):21-23.
[50]张一方.复数维和它的意义.粒子物理和相对论的新探索[M].昆明:云南科技出版社,1989:239-243.
[51]OLAMI Z,FEDER HJ S,CHRISTENSEN K.Self-Organized Criticality in a Continuous,Nonconservative CellularAutomaton Modeling Earthquakes[J].Phys.Rev.Lett.,1992,68(8):1 244-1 247.
[52]RAMOS O,ALTSHULER E,M LΦY K J.Quasiperiodic Events in an Earthquake Model[J].Phys.Rev.Lett.,2006,96(9):098501,1-4.
[53]BAK P,CHRISTENSEN K,DANON L,et al.Unified Scaling Lawfor Earthquakes[J].Phys.Rev.Lett.,2002,88(17):178501,1-4.
[54]YAMASAKI T,SENO T.Double Seismic Zone and Dehydration Embrittlement of the Subducting Slab[J].J.Geo-phys.Res.,2004,B108(4):ESE9-1-21.
[55]JOHNSON P A,SAVAGE H,KNUTH M,et al.,Effects of Acoustic Waves on Stick-Slipin Granular Media and I m-plications for Earthquakes[J].Nature,2008,453(7 174):57-60.
[56]王宝善,陈颙,王伟涛.汶川地震与地震灾害[J].科学,2008,60(4):56-58.
[2]力武常次.地震预报[M].冯锐,周新华,译.北京:地震出版社,1978.
[3]浅田敏.地震预报方法[M].强祖基,译.北京:地震出版社,1987.
[4][苏]凯里斯鲍罗克.中期地震预报[M].陈颙,译.北京:地震出版社.1991.
[5]SCHOLZ C H,SYKES L R,AGGARWAL Y P.Earthquake Prediction:A Physical Basis[J].Science,1973,181:803-809.
[6]KASAHARA K.Earthquake Mechanics[M].Cambridgo:Cambridge University Press,1981.
[7]SCHOLZ C H.The Critical Slip Distance for Seismic Faulting[J].Nature,1988:336,761-763.
[8]BORODICH M.Renormalization Schemes for Earthquake Prediction[J].Geophys.J.Int.(UK),1997,131(1):171-178.
[9]GELLER RJ.Earthquake Prediction:A Critical Review[J].Geophys.J.Int.,1997,131(2):425-450.
[10]JULIAN B R,MILLEER A D,FOULGEER G R.Non-Double-Couple Earthquakes.1.Theory;2.Observations[J].Rev.Geophys.,1998,36(4):525-549;551-568.
[11]CHAKRADARTI B K,STINCHCOMBE R B.Stick-Slip Statistics for Two Fractal Surfaces:A Model for Earthquakes[J].Physica,1999,A270(1-2):27-34.
[12]RUBIN A M,GILLARD D,GOTJ L.Streaks of Microearthquakes Along Creeping Faults[J].Nature,400,6745,635-641(1999).
[13]LU C,VERE-JONES D,TAKAYASU H,et al.Spatio-Temporal Seismicity in an Elastic Block Model[J].Fractals,1999,7(3):301-311.
[14]GERSTENBERGER MC,WIEMER S,JONES L M,et al.Real-Ti me Forecasts of Tomorrow’s Earthquakes in Cali-fornia[J].Nature,2005,435(7040):328-331.
[15]WIENS D A,ANANDAKRISHNAN S,WINBERRYJ P,et al.Si multaneous Teleseismic and Geodetic Observationsof the Stick-Slip Motion of an Antarctic Ice Stream[J].Nature,2008,453(7196):770-774.
[16]张铁铮.应用磁暴预报地震的探讨[J].地震战线,1971,4,45-54.
[17]耿庆国.中国旱震关系研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,1985.
[18]李全林,于渌,郝柏林,等.地震频度-震级关系的时空扫描[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.
[19]徐道一,郑文振,安振声,等.天体运行与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[20]杜品仁,徐道一.天文地震学引论[M].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[21]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[22]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.
[23]郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因和地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.
[24]栾巨庆.星体运动与长期天气、地震预报[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,1988.
[25]赵洪声,张世杰.天-气-地耦合与地震预报[M].昆明:云南大学出版社,1994.
[26]梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社.1993.
[27]蒋锦昌,陈德玉.地震生物学概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
[28]李善邦.中国地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[29]张一方.天地变化的周期性和地震周期的探索[M].昆明:云南科技出版社,1989:259-269.
[30]张一方.地震震级-周期公式及其初步应用[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,1990,12(4):371-375.
[31]张一方.地震的非线性动力学系统的探索[J].大自然探索,1997,16(3):51-55.
[32]张一方.地震震级-周期公式的一些应用[J].云南师范大学学报:自然科学版,1998,18(1):103-107.
[33]张一方.地震的非线性动力学和定量预测[J].国际地震动态,2004(z1):16.
[34]CHANG Yi-fang.Three Ways of Earthquake Prediction[J].J.Rel.Psych.Res.,2004,27(3):126-130.
[35]CHANG Yi-fang.Nonlinear Dynamics and Forecasts on Earthquake[J].Matter Regularity,2007,7(1):6-12.
[36]CHANG Yi-fang.Nonlinear Dynamics,Magnitude-Period Formula and Forecasts on Earthquake[J].ArXiv,2008,0802(0225):1-7.
[37]TURCOTTE D L,SCHUBERT G.Geodynamics[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons,1982.
[38]刘正荣.地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,2007.
[39]郑联达.大地震规律研究[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,1996.
[40]C.龙尼兹.地震预报的物理学和玄学[C]//大陆地震活动和地震预报国际学术讨论会论文集.北京:地震出版社,1984:432-437.
[41]TURCOTTE D L.Fractals and Chaos in Geology,and Geophysics[M].Cambridge:Cambridge UniversityPress,1992.
[42]LEVIN B W.Nonlinear Oscillating Structures in the Earthquake and Seaquake Dynamics[J].Chaos,1996,6(3):405-413.
[43]FREED A M,LINJ.Delayed Triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake by Viscoelastic Stress Transfer[J].Na-ture,2001,411(6 834):180-183.
[44]ANDREWS D J.Coupling of Energy Between Tectonic Processes and Earthquakes[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1978,B83(5):2 259-2 264.
[45]ROBINSON D P,HENRY C,DAS S,et al.Si multaneous Rupture Along Two Conjugate Planes of the Wharton BasinEarthquake[J].Science,2001,292(5 519):1 145-1 148.
[46]CHANG Yi-fang.Nonlinear Dynamics,Lorenz Model and Formation of Binary Stars[J].ArXiv,2008,0806(0188):1-8.
[47]安艺敬一.断层力学物理模型在地震预报中的应用[C]//大陆地震活动和地震预报国际学术讨论会论文集.北京:地震出版社,1984:403-408.
[48]PARSONS T,TODA S,STEIN R S,et al.Heightened Odds of Large Earthquarkes Near Istanbul:An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation[J].Science,2000,288(5 466):661-665.
[49]张一方.粒子的分形模型、复数维及其意义[J].大自然探索,1988,7(2):21-23.
[50]张一方.复数维和它的意义.粒子物理和相对论的新探索[M].昆明:云南科技出版社,1989:239-243.
[51]OLAMI Z,FEDER HJ S,CHRISTENSEN K.Self-Organized Criticality in a Continuous,Nonconservative CellularAutomaton Modeling Earthquakes[J].Phys.Rev.Lett.,1992,68(8):1 244-1 247.
[52]RAMOS O,ALTSHULER E,M LΦY K J.Quasiperiodic Events in an Earthquake Model[J].Phys.Rev.Lett.,2006,96(9):098501,1-4.
[53]BAK P,CHRISTENSEN K,DANON L,et al.Unified Scaling Lawfor Earthquakes[J].Phys.Rev.Lett.,2002,88(17):178501,1-4.
[54]YAMASAKI T,SENO T.Double Seismic Zone and Dehydration Embrittlement of the Subducting Slab[J].J.Geo-phys.Res.,2004,B108(4):ESE9-1-21.
[55]JOHNSON P A,SAVAGE H,KNUTH M,et al.,Effects of Acoustic Waves on Stick-Slipin Granular Media and I m-plications for Earthquakes[J].Nature,2008,453(7 174):57-60.
[56]王宝善,陈颙,王伟涛.汶川地震与地震灾害[J].科学,2008,60(4):56-58.
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