煤层底板突水评价的新型实用方法Ⅴ:基于GIS的ANN型、证据权型、Logistic回归型脆弱性指数法的比较
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摘要
为解决煤层底板突水预测预报评价难题,在煤层底板突水主控指标体系和脆弱性指数法提出的基础上,以峰峰九龙矿煤层底板突水为研究对象,分别应用新提出的基于GIS的ANN型、证据权型、Logistic回归型脆弱性指数法对该矿煤层底板突水进行了预测评价,并分别生成煤层底板突水脆弱性分区图,并对3种预测评价结果进行了详细对比和拟合分析,总结提出了3种预测评价方法的适用条件和他们各自的特点及优劣。
In order to solve the difficult evaluation problems of coal seam floor water burst,based on the vulnerable index method and main controlling index system for floor water burst,the coal seam floor water burst in the whole area of Jiulong Coal Mine in Fengfeng was studied.Through applying ANN,weight of evidence and logistic regression,as well as the new styles of the vulnerable index method,the coal seam floor of the mine was evaluated and pictures were produced as the vulnerable zone of the coal seam floor water burst.Finally,three evaluated results were compared and analyzed,and the applicable conditions,the advantages and weaknesses of each method were also presented.
In order to solve the difficult evaluation problems of coal seam floor water burst,based on the vulnerable index method and main controlling index system for floor water burst,the coal seam floor water burst in the whole area of Jiulong Coal Mine in Fengfeng was studied.Through applying ANN,weight of evidence and logistic regression,as well as the new styles of the vulnerable index method,the coal seam floor of the mine was evaluated and pictures were produced as the vulnerable zone of the coal seam floor water burst.Finally,three evaluated results were compared and analyzed,and the applicable conditions,the advantages and weaknesses of each method were also presented.
引文
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[2]中国煤田地质总局.中国煤田水文地质学[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2000.
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[4]国家煤矿安全监察局.煤矿安全规程释义(防治水部分)[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2011.
[5]国家煤矿安全监察局.煤矿防治水规定释义[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2009.
[6]武强,庞伟,戴迎春,等.煤层底板突水脆弱性评价的GIS与ANN耦合技术[J].煤炭学报,2006,31(3):314-319.Wu Qiang,Pang Wei,Dai Yingchun,et al.Vulnerability forecastingmodel based on coupling technique of GIS and ANN in floor ground-water bursting[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2006,31(3):314-319.
[7]武强,陈佩佩,董东林,等.基于GIS与ANN耦合技术的地裂缝灾情非线性模拟预测系统[J].地震地质,2001,2(2):249-257.Wu Qiang,Chen Peipei,Dong Donglin,et al.Hazard assessment sys-tem for ground fissure based on coupling of ANN and GIS[J].Seis-mology and Geology,2001,2(2):249-257.
[8]武强,张志龙,马积福.煤层底板突水评价的新型实用方法Ⅰ——主控指标体系的建设[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(1):42-47.Wu Qiang,Zhang Zhilong,Ma Jifu.A new practical methodology ofthe coal floor water bursting evaluatingⅠ——the master controllingindex system construction[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(1):42-47.
[9]武强,张志龙,张生元,等.煤层底板突水评价的新型实用方法Ⅱ——脆弱性指数法[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(11):1121-1126.Wu Qiang,Zhang Zhilong,Zhang Shengyuan,et al.A new practicalmethodology of the coal floor water bursting evaluatingⅡ:the vulner-able index method[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(11):1121-1126.
[10]武强,谢淑寒,裴振江,等.煤层底板突水评价的新型实用方法Ⅲ——基于GIS的ANN型脆弱性指数法应用[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(12):1301-1306.Wu Qiang,Xie Shuhan,Pei Zhenjiang,et al.A new practical meth-odology of the coal floor water bursting evaluatingⅢ:the applicationof ANN vulnerable index method based on GIS[J].Journal of Chi-na Coal Society,2007,32(12):1301-1306.
[11]武强,王金华,刘东海,等.煤层底板突水评价的新型实用方法Ⅳ——基于GIS的AHP型脆弱性指数法应用[J].煤炭学报,2009,34(2):233-238.Wu Qiang,Wang Jinhua,Liu Donghai,et al.A new practical meth-odology of the coal floor water bursting evaluatingⅣ:the applica-tion of AHP vulnerable index method based on GIS[J].Journal ofChina Coal Society,2009,34(2):233-238.
[12]武强,徐建芳,董东林,等.基于GIS的地质灾害和水资源研究理论与方法[M].北京:地质出版社,2001.
[13]张德丰.MATLAB神经网络仿真与应用[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2009.
[14]孙岩,王训练,陈建平.基于证据权重法的沱沱河地区铅锌银矿成矿预测[J].地质通报,2010,29(4):556-564.Sun Yan,Wang Xunlian,Chen Jianping,et al.Lead-zinc-silver met-allogenic prediction based on GIS in Tuotuo River region,Qinghai,China[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2010,29(4):556-564.
[15]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型——方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.
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