露天采矿爆破振动对民房破坏的SVM预测模型
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摘要
针对爆破振动效应评价中众多指标不确定性问题,基于支持向量机(SVM)原理和爆破振动对民房破坏的10个指标(爆破振动幅值、主频率持续时间、房屋高度等),利用Logistic回归分析理论,分析各指标与民房安全级别的关系,最终选取3个主要指标,建立露天采矿爆破振动对民房破坏的SVM预测模型。以32组实测数据作为学习样本对该模型进行训练。采用回代估计法对该模型进行回检,误判率为0。利用对小样本数据有较好预测性能的该模型进行另外12组检验样本的预测。结果表明:经回归分析,指标个数缩减,相关性降低,SVM运算效率提高,回估误判率为16.667%。
Seeing that commonly used methods for evaluating effects of blasting vibration were faced with so main indexes uncertainty problems,a model,based on SVM,was built for predicting residential houses' damage from blasting vibration of open pit mining. Before ten factors and the houses' safety levels had been analyzed using Logistic regressive analysis theory,and three main indexes had been selected. The re-substitution method was used to verify the stability of the model( false rate was 0),and the model was used to discriminate twelve new samples. The results show that the number of indexes was rendered smaller and correlation among indexes was rendered lower by logistic analysis,the efficiency is improved when the algorithm of SVM is operating,the re-substitution false rate is 16. 667%.
Seeing that commonly used methods for evaluating effects of blasting vibration were faced with so main indexes uncertainty problems,a model,based on SVM,was built for predicting residential houses' damage from blasting vibration of open pit mining. Before ten factors and the houses' safety levels had been analyzed using Logistic regressive analysis theory,and three main indexes had been selected. The re-substitution method was used to verify the stability of the model( false rate was 0),and the model was used to discriminate twelve new samples. The results show that the number of indexes was rendered smaller and correlation among indexes was rendered lower by logistic analysis,the efficiency is improved when the algorithm of SVM is operating,the re-substitution false rate is 16. 667%.
引文
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[15]王书舟.支持向量机方法及其应用研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2009∶19-24.WANG Shu-zhou.Support Vector Machine and Its Application[D].Harbin∶Harbin Institute of Technology,2009∶19-24.
[16]史秀志,周健,崔松,等.露天采矿爆破振动对民房危害预测的DDA模型及应用[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2011,42(2):441-448.SHI Xiu-zhi,ZHOU Jian,CUI Song,et al.Distance discriminant analysis model and its application for predicting residential house's damage from blasting vibration of open pit mining[J].Journal of Central South University∶Science and Technology,2011,42(2):441-448.
[17]马庆国.管理统计[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:336-362.MA Qing-guo.Statistics for Managers[M].Beijing∶Science Press,2008:336-362.
[18]宫凤强,刘科伟,李志国.矿区采空塌陷危险性预测的Bayes判别分析法[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2010,27(1):30-39.GONG Feng-qiang,LIU Ke-wei,LI Zhi-guo.The Bayes discriminant method for forcasting the stability of underground goaf[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2010,27(1):30-39.
[2]田运生,田会礼,于亚伦,等.爆破地震波作用下民房破坏分析和破坏特征[J].爆破,2005,22(1):96-98.TIAN Yun-sheng,TIAN Hui-li,YU Ya-lun,et al.Damage characteristics and damage analysis of residential house caused by blasting vibration wave[J].Blasting,2005,22(1):96-98.
[3]陆广,罗周全,史秀志,等.露天矿周边民房爆破振动响应的频率特征分析[J].矿冶工程,2011,31(1):9-12.LU Guang,LUO Zhou-quan,SHI Xiu-zhi,et al.Analysis of frequency effect in the response of residential houses to blast induced vibration around open pit mine[J].Mining and Metallurgical Engineering,2011,31(1):9-12.
[4]中国生,徐国元,熊正明.基于小波变换的爆破地震信号能量分析法的应用研究[J].爆炸与冲击,2006,26(3):222-227.ZHONG Guo-sheng,XU Guo-yuan,XIONG Zheng-ming.Application research of the energy analysis method for blasting seismic signals based on wavelet transformation[J].Explosion and Shock Waves,2006,26(3):222-227.
[5]史秀志,林大能,陈寿如.基于粗糙集模糊神经网络的爆破振动危害预测[J].爆炸与冲击,2009,29(4):401-407.SHI Xiu-zhi,LIN Da-neng,CHEN Shou-ru.Blasting vibration induced damage prediction by rough set-based fuzzy neural network[J].Explosion and Shock Waves,2009,29(4):401-407.
[6]董陇军,李夕兵,赵国彦,等.露天采矿爆破振动对砌体结构破坏效应预测的Fisher判别模型及应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(4):750-756.DONG Long-jun,LI Xi-bing,ZHAO Guo-yan,et al.Fisher discriminant analysis model for predicting destructive effect of masonry structure under blasting vibration of open-pit mine and its application[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(4):750-756.
[7]邵良杉,赵琳琳.露天采矿爆破振动对民房破坏的旋转森林预测模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(2):58-63.SHAO Liang-shan,ZHAO Lin-lin.Rotation forest analysis model for predicting residential house's damage from blasting vibration of open pit mining[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(2):58-63.
[8]Wilton T J,Hills R L.Blasting vibration monitoring on anchored retaining walls and within boreholes[C].Rock and Excavation in Urban Environment,1986∶65-78.
[9]GB6722—2003,爆破安全规程[S].GB6722-2003,Blasting Safety Procedures[S].
[10]闫志刚,杜培军,郭达志.矿井涌水水源分析的支持向量机模型[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(8):842-847.YAN Zhi-gang,DU Pei-jun,GUO Da-zhi.SVM models for analysing the headstreams of mine water inrush[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(8):842-847.
[11]孟倩,王洪权,王永胜,等.煤自燃极限参数的支持向量机预测模型[J].煤炭学报,2009,34(11):1 489-1 493.MENG Qian,WANG Hong-quan,WANG Yong-sheng,et al.Predicting limit parameters of coal self-ignition based on support vector machine model[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2009,34(11):1 489-1 493.
[12]李铁,蔡美峰,蔡明.分层开采煤矿的矿震能量释放模型与能量释放谱[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(12):1 258-1 263.LI Tie,CAI Mei-feng,CAI Ming.A rockburst energy release model and energy release spectrum for coal mines in layered grounds[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2007,32(12):1 258-1 263.
[13]唐洁,吴学兵.基于Logistic回归模型的Blazar天体的分类[J].物理学报,2011,60(11):1-7.TANG Jie,WU Xue-bing.Classification of Blazar objects based on Logistic regression model[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2011,60(11):1-7.
[14]邵良杉,白媛,邱云飞,等.露天采矿爆破振动对民房破坏的LS-SVM预测模型[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(10):1 637-1 642.SHAO Liang-shan,BAI Yuan,QIU Yun-fei,et al.LS-SVM analysis model for predicting residential house's damage from blasting vibration of open pit mining[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2012,37(10):1 637-1 642.
[15]王书舟.支持向量机方法及其应用研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2009∶19-24.WANG Shu-zhou.Support Vector Machine and Its Application[D].Harbin∶Harbin Institute of Technology,2009∶19-24.
[16]史秀志,周健,崔松,等.露天采矿爆破振动对民房危害预测的DDA模型及应用[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2011,42(2):441-448.SHI Xiu-zhi,ZHOU Jian,CUI Song,et al.Distance discriminant analysis model and its application for predicting residential house's damage from blasting vibration of open pit mining[J].Journal of Central South University∶Science and Technology,2011,42(2):441-448.
[17]马庆国.管理统计[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:336-362.MA Qing-guo.Statistics for Managers[M].Beijing∶Science Press,2008:336-362.
[18]宫凤强,刘科伟,李志国.矿区采空塌陷危险性预测的Bayes判别分析法[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2010,27(1):30-39.GONG Feng-qiang,LIU Ke-wei,LI Zhi-guo.The Bayes discriminant method for forcasting the stability of underground goaf[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2010,27(1):30-39.
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