盐岩地下储库群运营期多失效模式下系统时变可靠性分析方法研究
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摘要
盐岩地下储库以其优良的密闭性及安全性得到日益广泛的应用,但对其体系可靠性及风险的研究尚属探索阶段。运用系统可靠性理论,对储库群在设计运营期内的失效进行定义。考虑运营期内盐岩蠕变引起的腔体体积收缩和矿柱塑性区发展对储库群系统可靠性的影响,给出储库群系统的多种失效模式,建立储库群系统可靠性分析模型。在考虑相关性的基础上,应用"最弱失效模式假设"对储库群系统进行时变可靠性分析评价。以金坛盐岩地下储库为工程背景,建立储库群数值模型,进行时变可靠性分析,得到一些有价值的结论。提出盐岩地下储库群系统时变可靠性分析方法,为盐岩地下储库群的安全运营和稳定性评价提供科学的依据。
Underground salt rock storage cavern is widely used for its good sealability and safety performance,but the research on its system reliability and risk is still at the exploratory stage.Based on the system reliability analysis theory,the failure of storage group is defined in this article.Considering the influence of the cavern?s volume shrinkage and pillar?s plastic zone development resulting from salt rock?s creep property during operation period,the multiple failure modes of the storage group are given and the system reliability mode is built.Considering the correlativity of different elements and using the weakest failure mode assumption,the time-variant system reliability of underground salt rock storage group is analyzed.Based on Jintan salt rock storage group,a salt rock storage group numerical model is established and its time-variant system reliability is studied,and some valuable conclusions are obtained.A method of time-variant system reliability analysis is proposed and the result can provide reference for the safe operation and stability evaluation of the salt rock storage groups.
Underground salt rock storage cavern is widely used for its good sealability and safety performance,but the research on its system reliability and risk is still at the exploratory stage.Based on the system reliability analysis theory,the failure of storage group is defined in this article.Considering the influence of the cavern?s volume shrinkage and pillar?s plastic zone development resulting from salt rock?s creep property during operation period,the multiple failure modes of the storage group are given and the system reliability mode is built.Considering the correlativity of different elements and using the weakest failure mode assumption,the time-variant system reliability of underground salt rock storage group is analyzed.Based on Jintan salt rock storage group,a salt rock storage group numerical model is established and its time-variant system reliability is studied,and some valuable conclusions are obtained.A method of time-variant system reliability analysis is proposed and the result can provide reference for the safe operation and stability evaluation of the salt rock storage groups.
引文
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[16]PLACE C S,STRUTT J E,ALLSOPP K,et al.Reliability predictionof helicopter transmission systems using stress-strength interferencewith underlying damage accumulation[J].Quality and ReliabilityEngineering International,1999,15(2):69–78.
[17]MADSEN H O,KRENK S,LIND N C.Methods of structuralsafety[M].[S.l.]:[s.n.],1986:108–152.
[18]王光远,朱靖华.地震作用下串、并联工程系统结构失效相关性的近似处理[J].地震工程与工程振动,1998,18(3):1–7.(WANGGuangyuan,ZHU Jinghua.Approximate method dealing with failuredependence among structures in disaster-resistant engineeringsystem[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1998,18(3):1–7.(in Chinese))
[19]MENDELL N R,ELSTON R C.Multifactorial qualitative traits:genetic analysis and prediction of recurrence risks[J].Biometrics,1974,30(1):41–47.
[20]张强勇,刘德军,贾超,等.盐岩油气储库介质地质力学模型相似材料的研制[J].岩土力学,2009,30(12):3581–3586.(ZHANGQiangyong,LIU Dejun,JIA Chao,et al.Development of geomechanicalmodel similitude material for salt rock oil-gas storage medium[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2009,30(12):3 581–3 586.(inChinese))
[21]张伟.结构可靠性理论与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:15–52.(ZHANG Wei.Theory and application of structuralreliability[M].Beijing:Science Press,2008:15–52.(in Chinese))
[2]杨春和,梁卫国,魏东吼,等.中国盐岩能源地下储存可行性研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(24):4409–4417.(YANGChunhe,LIANG Weiguo,WEI Donghou.et al.Investigation onpossibility of energy storage in salt rock in China[J].Chinese Journalof Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(24):4 409–4 417.(inChinese))
[3]贾超,刘家涛,张强勇,等.盐岩储气库运营期时变可靠度计算及风险分析[J].岩土力学,2011,32(5):1479–1484.(JIAChao,LIU Jiatao,ZHANG Qiangyong,et al.Time-variant reliabilitycalculation and risk analysis for salt rock gas storage during operationtime[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2011,32(5):1 479–1 484.(in Chinese))
[4]贾超,张强勇,刘家涛,等.不同内压下盐岩地下储气库可靠性分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2011,7(2):276–280.(JIAChao,ZHANG Qiangyong,LIU Jiatao,et al.Reliability analysis forunderground salt rock gas storage under different gas pressure[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2011,7(2):276–280.(in Chinese))
[5]李云贵,赵国藩.结构体系可靠度的近似计算方法[J].土木工程学报,1993,26(5):70–76.(LI Yungui,ZHAO Guofan.Approximatecalculation method of reliability of structure system[J].China CivilEngineering Journal,1993,26(5):70–76.(in Chinese))
[6]金星,洪延基.系统可靠性评定方法[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005:1–20.(JIN Xing,HONG Yanji.Assessment methods ofsystem reliability[M].Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2005:1–20.(in Chinese))
[7]DURUP J G.Long term tests for tightness evaluations with brine andgas in salt[R].[S.l.]:[s.n.],1994.
[8]卢明银,徐人平.系统可靠性[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2008:24–43.(LU Mingyin,XU Renping.System reliability[M].Beijing:Machinery industry press,2008:24–43.(in Chinese))
[9]刘宁,李同春,卓家涛.用三维随机有限元寻求结构最大可能失效模式算法的修正[J].水利学报,1996,(3):36–43.(LIU Ning,LI Tongchun,ZHOU Jiashou.A method for searching the mostpossible failure mode by on 3D SFEM[J].Journal of HydraulicEngineering,1996,(3):36–43.(in Chinese))
[10]贾超,张强勇,张宁,等.盐岩地下储气库风险分级机制初探[J].岩土力学,2009,30(12):3621–3626.(JIAChao,ZHANGQiangyong,ZHANG Ning,et al.Preliminary research of riskclassification for underground salt rock gas storage[J].Rock and SoilMechanics,2009,30(12):3 621–3 626.(in Chinese))
[11]栾茂田,武亚军,年廷凯.强度折减有限元法中边坡失稳的塑性区判据及其应用[J].防震减灾工程学报,2003,23(3):1–8.(LUANMaotian,WU Yajun,NIAN Tingkai.A criterion for evaluating slopestability based on development of plastic zone by shear strengthreduction FEM[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and MitigationEngineering,2003,23(3):1–8.(in Chinese))
[12]程丽娟,李仲奎,徐彬,等.盐岩密集储库群布置方式优化及连锁破坏研究[J].岩土力学与工程学报,2011,30(2):296–305.(CHENG Lijuan,LI Zhongkui,XU Bin,et al.Study of layoutoptimization and chain destruction of dense storage grouping saltrock[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2011,30(2):296–305.(in Chinese))
[13]王东炜.关于建筑结构若干失效相关性问题的探讨分析[J].世界地震工程,2011,17(1):112–114.(WANG Dongwei.Analysis ofsome failure dependence of building structures[J].World Informationon Earthquake Engineering,2011,17(1):112–114.(in Chinese))
[14]洪汉平.地震荷载作用下相关性对结构可靠度的影响[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):8–13.(HONG Hanping.Effect ofdependence on structural reliability for earthquake loading[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2000,20(4):8–13.(in Chinese))
[15]LEVITIN G.Incorporating common-cause failures into nonrepairablemultistate series-parallel system analysis[J].IEEE Transactions onReliability,2001,50(4):380–385.
[16]PLACE C S,STRUTT J E,ALLSOPP K,et al.Reliability predictionof helicopter transmission systems using stress-strength interferencewith underlying damage accumulation[J].Quality and ReliabilityEngineering International,1999,15(2):69–78.
[17]MADSEN H O,KRENK S,LIND N C.Methods of structuralsafety[M].[S.l.]:[s.n.],1986:108–152.
[18]王光远,朱靖华.地震作用下串、并联工程系统结构失效相关性的近似处理[J].地震工程与工程振动,1998,18(3):1–7.(WANGGuangyuan,ZHU Jinghua.Approximate method dealing with failuredependence among structures in disaster-resistant engineeringsystem[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1998,18(3):1–7.(in Chinese))
[19]MENDELL N R,ELSTON R C.Multifactorial qualitative traits:genetic analysis and prediction of recurrence risks[J].Biometrics,1974,30(1):41–47.
[20]张强勇,刘德军,贾超,等.盐岩油气储库介质地质力学模型相似材料的研制[J].岩土力学,2009,30(12):3581–3586.(ZHANGQiangyong,LIU Dejun,JIA Chao,et al.Development of geomechanicalmodel similitude material for salt rock oil-gas storage medium[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2009,30(12):3 581–3 586.(inChinese))
[21]张伟.结构可靠性理论与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:15–52.(ZHANG Wei.Theory and application of structuralreliability[M].Beijing:Science Press,2008:15–52.(in Chinese))
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