重庆市主要构造地震危险性评价
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摘要
以重庆市活断层探测资料为基础,通过对该工作区的地震构造、地震活动性、构造应力场与形变场的分析,综合判定出目标区未来可能发生地震的最大震级为5.5≤M S≤6.0。尝试将地震空间光滑模型应用到弱活动区城市活断层地震危险性评价中,充分利用历史强震和微震目录,分别建立了2种地震空间光滑模型,并采用泊松模型,对目标区未来百年的地震危险性(发震概率)进行了定量分析。结果表明:单条断裂发震概率值较低,未来发生5.5级以上破坏性地震的可能性较小。
The maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake in the target area is forecasted in this paper by synthetical analysis of tectonic structure,seismicity,stress and strain fields,based on data of the Chongqing urban active faults surveying.The maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake in the target area is 5.5≤MS≤6.0.We try to use the spatially smoothed seismicity method in weakly active area.Two seismic hazard models in weakly active area based on spatially smoothed seismicity method are proposed using strong seismic catalog and small seismic catalog.The completeness of these two catalogs is analyzed based on EMR(Entire Magnitude Range) method.And the seismic hazard(probability) in the target area is calculated using Poisson model.The results show that the seismic probability value for a single fault is relatively low and the possibility of destructive earthquake of magnitude above 5.5 in the target area is small.There are still some uncertainty and reliability for the results because of the hypnosis of the spatially smoothed seismicity model.However it should be noticed that the technique of seismic hazard calculation described in this paper based on spatially smoothed seismicity method is a new try and has potential application for the weakly active area such as Chongqing.
The maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake in the target area is forecasted in this paper by synthetical analysis of tectonic structure,seismicity,stress and strain fields,based on data of the Chongqing urban active faults surveying.The maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake in the target area is 5.5≤MS≤6.0.We try to use the spatially smoothed seismicity method in weakly active area.Two seismic hazard models in weakly active area based on spatially smoothed seismicity method are proposed using strong seismic catalog and small seismic catalog.The completeness of these two catalogs is analyzed based on EMR(Entire Magnitude Range) method.And the seismic hazard(probability) in the target area is calculated using Poisson model.The results show that the seismic probability value for a single fault is relatively low and the possibility of destructive earthquake of magnitude above 5.5 in the target area is small.There are still some uncertainty and reliability for the results because of the hypnosis of the spatially smoothed seismicity model.However it should be noticed that the technique of seismic hazard calculation described in this paper based on spatially smoothed seismicity method is a new try and has potential application for the weakly active area such as Chongqing.
引文
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邓起东.2002.城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题[J].地震地质,24(4):601—605.DENG Qi-dong.2002.Exploration and seismic hazard assessment of active faults in urban areas[J].Seismology and Geology,24(4):601—605(in Chinese).
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华.1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社.247—264.DENG Qi-dong,YU Gui-hua,YE Wen-hua.1992.Relationship between earthquake magnitude and parameters of surface ruptures associated with historical earthquakes[A].In:Institute of Geology,SSB(ed).Research of Active Fault(2).Seismological Press,Beijing 247—264(in Chinese).
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彭艳菊,张力方,吕悦军,等.2011.中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较[J].中国地震,27(4):376 —385.PENG Yan-ju,ZHANG Li-fang,LYue-jun,et al.2011.Methods on the calculation of annual seismic activity rate in moderate strong seismicity region[J].Earthquake Research in China,27(4):376—385(in Chinese).
秦娟,蔡辉腾,李光,等.2012.重庆地区小地震目录完整性分析[J].华南地震,32(1):61—67.QIN Juan,CAI Hui-teng,LI Guang,et al.2012.Catalogue completeness analysis of the small earthquakes in Chongqing district[J].South China Journal of Seismology,32(1):61—67(in Chinese).
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魏运浩,姚运生,王秋良.2011.基于空间平滑法的武汉城市圈地震危险性概率分析[J].地震研究,34(3):287 —290.WEI Yun-hao,YAO Yun-sheng,WANG Qiu-liang.2011.Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Wuhan metropolitan region based on spatial smoothing method[J].Journal of Seismological Research,34(3):287—290(in Chinese).
闻学泽,徐锡伟,龙锋,等.2007.中国大陆东部中-弱活动断层潜在地震最大震级评估的震级-频度关系模型[J].地震地质,29(2):236—253.WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei,LONG Feng,et al.2007.Frequency-magnitude relationship models for assessment of maximum magnitudes of potential earthquake on moderately and weakly active faults in eastern China mainland[J].Seismology and Geology,29(2):236—253(in Chinese).
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邓起东.2002.城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题[J].地震地质,24(4):601—605.DENG Qi-dong.2002.Exploration and seismic hazard assessment of active faults in urban areas[J].Seismology and Geology,24(4):601—605(in Chinese).
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华.1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社.247—264.DENG Qi-dong,YU Gui-hua,YE Wen-hua.1992.Relationship between earthquake magnitude and parameters of surface ruptures associated with historical earthquakes[A].In:Institute of Geology,SSB(ed).Research of Active Fault(2).Seismological Press,Beijing 247—264(in Chinese).
丁仁杰,李克昌,等.2004.重庆地震研究[M].北京:地震出版社.DING Ren-jie,LI Ke-chang,et al.2004.Research of Earthquakes in Chongqing[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
高孟潭,肖和平,燕为民,等.2008.中强地震活动地区地震区划重要性及关键技术进展[J].震灾防御技术,3(1):1—7.GAO Meng-tan,XIAO He-ping,YAN Wei-min,et al.2008.The importance of seismicity zonation in moderate earthquake area and recent technical progress[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,3(1):1—7(in Chinese).
黄世源,魏红梅.2007.2006年荣昌地震活动与注水关系[J].高原地震,19(2):8—11.HUANG Shi-yuan,WEI Hong-mei.2007.Relationship between the Rongchang earthquake 2006 and water injection[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,19(2):8—11(in Chinese).
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二:分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图像[J].地震学报,16(4):423—432.HUANG Wei-qiong,LI Wen-xiang,CAO Xue-feng.1994.Research on completeness of earthquake data on the Chinese mainland(Ⅱ):The regional distribution of the beginning years of basically complete earthquake data[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,16(4):423—432.
黄玮琼,时振梁,曹学锋.1989.b值统计中的影响因素及危险性分析中b值的选取[J].地震学报,11(4):351 —361.HUANG Wei-qiong,SHI Zhen-liang,CAO Xue-feng.1989.Factors influencing the estimation of b value and the selection of b value in hazard analysis[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,11(4):351—361(in Chinese).
李延兴,杨国华,李智,等.2003.中国大陆活动地块的运动与应变状态[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):65—81 .LI Yan-xing,YANG Guo-hua,LI Zhi,et al.2003.Characteristics of velocity and strain field of active tectonic blocks in China mainland[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(suppl):65—81(in Chinese).
梁明剑,袁道阳,刘百篪,等.2008.兰州邻区活断层潜在地震最大震级及其危险性评估[J].中国地震,24(4):317 —324.LIANG Ming-jian,YUAN Dao-yang,LIU Bai-chi,et al.2008.Assessment of seismic risk and maximum magnitudes of potential earthquakes on active faults near Lanzhou city[J].Earthquake Research in China,24(4):317—324(in Chinese).
罗灼礼.1995.中国大陆原地重复强震的特征及其预测[J].地震,5(1):1—11.LUO Zhuo-li.1995.The main characteristics and prediction for the earthquake recurrence[J].Earthquake,5(1):1—11 (in Chinese).
彭艳菊,张力方,吕悦军,等.2011.中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较[J].中国地震,27(4):376 —385.PENG Yan-ju,ZHANG Li-fang,LYue-jun,et al.2011.Methods on the calculation of annual seismic activity rate in moderate strong seismicity region[J].Earthquake Research in China,27(4):376—385(in Chinese).
秦娟,蔡辉腾,李光,等.2012.重庆地区小地震目录完整性分析[J].华南地震,32(1):61—67.QIN Juan,CAI Hui-teng,LI Guang,et al.2012.Catalogue completeness analysis of the small earthquakes in Chongqing district[J].South China Journal of Seismology,32(1):61—67(in Chinese).
沈得秀,周本刚.2006.华南地区中强地震重复特征初步分析[J].震灾防御技术,2(3):252—260.SHEN De-xiu,ZHOU Ben-gang.2006.Primary analysis on the recurring characteristics of moderate-strong earthquakes in South China[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2(3):252—260(in Chinese).
王华林,盖殿广,王纪强,等.2011.淄博市及其邻近地区活断层地震危险性评价[J].震灾防御技术,6(3):242 —256.WANG Hua-lin,GAI Dian-guang,WANG Ji-qiang.et al.2011.Seismic risk assessment of active faults in Zibo city and its adjacent area[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,6(3):242—256(in Chinese).
魏运浩,姚运生,王秋良.2011.基于空间平滑法的武汉城市圈地震危险性概率分析[J].地震研究,34(3):287 —290.WEI Yun-hao,YAO Yun-sheng,WANG Qiu-liang.2011.Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Wuhan metropolitan region based on spatial smoothing method[J].Journal of Seismological Research,34(3):287—290(in Chinese).
闻学泽,徐锡伟,龙锋,等.2007.中国大陆东部中-弱活动断层潜在地震最大震级评估的震级-频度关系模型[J].地震地质,29(2):236—253.WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei,LONG Feng,et al.2007.Frequency-magnitude relationship models for assessment of maximum magnitudes of potential earthquake on moderately and weakly active faults in eastern China mainland[J].Seismology and Geology,29(2):236—253(in Chinese).
胥广银,金严.1998.弱震和中等强度地震活动区地震活动性模型研究[A].见:中国地震区划学术讨论会论文集.北京:地震出版社.43—49.XU Guang-yin,JIN Yan.1998.Research on seismicity models of moderately and weakly active regions[A].In:Proceedings of China Academic Symposium on Seismic Zoning.Seismological Press,Beijing 43—49(in Chinese).
徐伟进,高孟潭.2012.空间光滑地震活动性模型中光滑函数的比较研究[J].地震学报,34(2):244—256.XU Wei-jin,GAO Meng-tan.2012.Comparison of the smoothing functions in the analysis of spatially smoothed seismicity[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,34(2):244—256.
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