1998年张北地震前的大气增温异常
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摘要
地震前的热异常已有许多研究,大多研究得出的异常区域面积过大或者远离震中以至于难以判断震中。用温度相减法研究张北地震前的温度变化,发现震前13天张北附近出现了孤立的增温区,张北站增温5.8℃,是当天整个中国东部地区的最大增温值。增温区长轴为北东向,区内分布有北东向尚义-多伦断裂。震前1天沿北西向张北—渤海断裂带张北的增温也达到最大值,张北地震即发生在这两组断裂汇而不交的部位。将增温区中心预测为震中,误差大概为80km,这一数值结果比目前大多数热异常的研究结果好,显示出气象数据在地震研究中有一定应用价值。同时,气象数据的观测和加工有全国统一的规范,处理起来简单方便,本文提出的温度相减法,简便易行,由于使用的是温度的相对变化,避免了各地小气候不同导致的温度差异。如果结合地震台网观测数据,在地震预测研究中能发挥更好的效果。
The thermal anomaly before earthquake was widely studied during the last 20 years;in most cases the thermal anomaly is far away from the epicenter,so it is difficult to predict the epicenter with this anomaly.In this paper,the air temperature data was used to study the thermal anomaly before the Zhangbei earthquake of Jan.10,1998.The results show that an isolated area with high temperature appeared at a place close to the epicenter 13 days before this quake,at the same time the temperature was also the maximum value in the whole east China.The long axis of this area points northeast,the same as that of Shangyi-Duolun fault.The air temperature along the northwest Zhangbei-Bohai fault reached the maximum value at Zhangbei station one day before the quake,and the Ms 6.2 quake occurred at the intersection area of these two fault systems.If the center of the thermal anomaly area was predicted as the future epicenter,the error will be 80km,as a much better result than most other predictions.It shows that the meteorology data are also useful in earthquake predictions.At the same time,the meteorology data can be obtained and processed with a national uniform criterion,and are easily available to researchers.The subtraction method considers the relative temperature change,which may eliminate the influence of the temperature difference caused by different local climates.If the geophysical data measured by seismic stations are combined with the meteorology data,a better earthquake prediction would be possible.
The thermal anomaly before earthquake was widely studied during the last 20 years;in most cases the thermal anomaly is far away from the epicenter,so it is difficult to predict the epicenter with this anomaly.In this paper,the air temperature data was used to study the thermal anomaly before the Zhangbei earthquake of Jan.10,1998.The results show that an isolated area with high temperature appeared at a place close to the epicenter 13 days before this quake,at the same time the temperature was also the maximum value in the whole east China.The long axis of this area points northeast,the same as that of Shangyi-Duolun fault.The air temperature along the northwest Zhangbei-Bohai fault reached the maximum value at Zhangbei station one day before the quake,and the Ms 6.2 quake occurred at the intersection area of these two fault systems.If the center of the thermal anomaly area was predicted as the future epicenter,the error will be 80km,as a much better result than most other predictions.It shows that the meteorology data are also useful in earthquake predictions.At the same time,the meteorology data can be obtained and processed with a national uniform criterion,and are easily available to researchers.The subtraction method considers the relative temperature change,which may eliminate the influence of the temperature difference caused by different local climates.If the geophysical data measured by seismic stations are combined with the meteorology data,a better earthquake prediction would be possible.
引文
[1]车用太,鱼金子,刘五洲.地壳放气动态监测与张北-尚义Ms6.2级地震预报[J].地质论评,1999,45(1):59-65.Che Yongtai,Yu Jinzi,Liu Wuzhou.Geological Review,1999,45(1):59-65.
[2]王基华,林元武,高松升.怀来断层气CO2监测及张北-尚义地震的短临预报[J].地震地质,1998,20(2):113-116.Wang Jihua,Lin Yuanwu,Gao Songsheng.Seismology and Geology,1998,20(2):113-116.
[3]苗菊玲,张双凤,董书香.张北震前北杜井水位异常分析[J].华北地震科学,2004,22(3):25-27.Miao Juling,Zhang Shuangfeng,Dong Shuxiang.North China Earthquake Sciences,2004,22(3):25-27.
[4]高立新,曹刚.用地下水位异常对1998年1月10日张北-尚义Ms6.2地震的检验性预测[J].西北地震学报,1999,21(3):334-336.Gao Lixin,Cao Gang.Northwestern Seismological Journal,1999,21(3):334-336.
[5]徐秀登,张行才,李贵达.张北地震与大气增温异常[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(1):24-27.Xu Xiudeng,Zhang Xingcai,Li Guida.Northwestern Seismological Journal,2000,22(1):24-27.
[6]吕琪琦,丁鉴海,崔承禹,等.张北6.2级地震前的卫星热红外异常[J].地震,1998,18(3):240-244.Lu Qiqi,Ding Jianhai,Cui Chengyu,et al.Earthquake,1998,18(3):240-244.
[7]吕琪琦,丁鉴海,崔承禹.1998年1月10日张北6.2级地震前可能的卫星热红外异常现象[J].地震学报,2000,22(2):183-188.Lu Qiqi,Ding Jianhai,Cui Chengyu.Acta Seismological Sinica,2000,22(2):183-188.
[8]李金平,吴立新,温志勇,等.中国沿海和内陆强震前地表潜热通量异常特征[J].科技导报,2008,26(5):40-45.Li Jinping,Wu Lixin,Wen Zhiyong,et al.Science&Technology Review,2008,26(5):40-45.
[2]王基华,林元武,高松升.怀来断层气CO2监测及张北-尚义地震的短临预报[J].地震地质,1998,20(2):113-116.Wang Jihua,Lin Yuanwu,Gao Songsheng.Seismology and Geology,1998,20(2):113-116.
[3]苗菊玲,张双凤,董书香.张北震前北杜井水位异常分析[J].华北地震科学,2004,22(3):25-27.Miao Juling,Zhang Shuangfeng,Dong Shuxiang.North China Earthquake Sciences,2004,22(3):25-27.
[4]高立新,曹刚.用地下水位异常对1998年1月10日张北-尚义Ms6.2地震的检验性预测[J].西北地震学报,1999,21(3):334-336.Gao Lixin,Cao Gang.Northwestern Seismological Journal,1999,21(3):334-336.
[5]徐秀登,张行才,李贵达.张北地震与大气增温异常[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(1):24-27.Xu Xiudeng,Zhang Xingcai,Li Guida.Northwestern Seismological Journal,2000,22(1):24-27.
[6]吕琪琦,丁鉴海,崔承禹,等.张北6.2级地震前的卫星热红外异常[J].地震,1998,18(3):240-244.Lu Qiqi,Ding Jianhai,Cui Chengyu,et al.Earthquake,1998,18(3):240-244.
[7]吕琪琦,丁鉴海,崔承禹.1998年1月10日张北6.2级地震前可能的卫星热红外异常现象[J].地震学报,2000,22(2):183-188.Lu Qiqi,Ding Jianhai,Cui Chengyu.Acta Seismological Sinica,2000,22(2):183-188.
[8]李金平,吴立新,温志勇,等.中国沿海和内陆强震前地表潜热通量异常特征[J].科技导报,2008,26(5):40-45.Li Jinping,Wu Lixin,Wen Zhiyong,et al.Science&Technology Review,2008,26(5):40-45.
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