地震临界现象及相关尺度增长定量检测方法研究综述
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摘要
当前作为强震前的典型特征,临界阶段地震活动的相关长度增长及主震周围矩释放加速(AMR)现象近年来受到广泛关注及普遍认可。但近期部分震例研究显示,在震中周围的大尺度范围内检测到矩释放加速的现象,而在震中附近较小区域又可检测到矩释放减速的现象。该文拟对地震活动相关以及临界状态的研究状况,主震前震区周围大范围矩释放加速和小范围矩释放减速定量化检测的国内外研究状况以及研究中所存在的问题作了综述。
As the typical characteristics before strong shocks,the earthquake activities of critical moment and phenomena of accelerating earthquake moment release around main earthquakes have been attended these years.Some researches have lately showed that there are the phenomena of accelerating earthquake moment release in the wide area around the epicenter and the phenomena of decelerating earthquake moment release in the narrower region around the epicenter.Here the authors briefly summarize the status of the research and existing problems at home and abroad: the critical state of seismic activities and phenomena of accelerating and decelerating earthquake moment release before the mainshock.
As the typical characteristics before strong shocks,the earthquake activities of critical moment and phenomena of accelerating earthquake moment release around main earthquakes have been attended these years.Some researches have lately showed that there are the phenomena of accelerating earthquake moment release in the wide area around the epicenter and the phenomena of decelerating earthquake moment release in the narrower region around the epicenter.Here the authors briefly summarize the status of the research and existing problems at home and abroad: the critical state of seismic activities and phenomena of accelerating and decelerating earthquake moment release before the mainshock.
引文
[1]Keilis-Borok V I.The lithosphere of the Earth as a non-linear system with implications for earth-quake prediction[J].Rev Geophys,1990,28(1):19-34.
[2]Gabrielov,Newman,Turcotte.An exactly soluble hierarchical clustering model:Inverse cascades,self-similarity and scaling[J].Phys Rev E,1999,60:5 293-5 300.
[3]Press F,Allen C.Pattern of seismic release in the Southern California region[J].J Geophys Res,1995,100:6 421-6 430.
[4]Romanowicz B.Spatiotemporal patterns in the energy-release of great earthquakes[J].Science,1993,260:1 923-1 926.
[5]JaumèR.Sykes Evolving Towards a Critical Point:A Review of Accelerating Seismic Moment/En-ergy Release Prior to Large and Great Earthquake[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1999,155:279-306.
[6]Keilis-Borok V I,Soloviev A A.Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction[J].Springer-Verlag,Heidelberg,2003,355:136-149.
[7]Bufe Varnes.Pridictive modeling of seismic cycling of the greater San Francisco Bay region[J].JGeophys Res,1993,98:9 871-9 883.
[8]Pollitz,Roland Burgmann,Barbara Romanowicz.Viscosity of Oceanic Asthenosphere Inferred fromRemote Triggering of Earthquakes[J].Science,1998,280:1 245-1 249.
[9]Aki K.Scale dependence in earthquake phenomena and its relevance to earthquake prediction[J].Proc Natl Acad Sci,1996,93:3 748-3 755.
[10]Shaw B E,Carlson J M,Langer J S.Patterns of seismic activity preceding large earthquakes[J].JGeophys Res,1992,97:479-492.
[11]Gabrielov A M,Zaliapin I V,et al.Colliding cascades model for earthquake prediction[J].GeophysJ Int,2000,143:427-437.
[12]Zaliapin,Keilis-Borok V I,Ghil M.A Boolean delay equation model of colliding cascades,Part II:Prediction of critical transitions[J].J Stat Phys,2003,111(3-4):839-861.
[13]Shebalin P,Zaliapin I,Keilis-Borok V I.Premonitory rise of the earthquakes′correlation range:lesser Antilles[J].Phys Earth Planet Int,2000,122(3-4):241-249.
[14]Z ller,Hainzl,Kurths.Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical pointbehavior prior to large earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,2001,106:2 167-2 176.
[15]Keilis-Borok V I,Shebalin P N,Zaliapin I V.Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before alarge earthquake:five case histories in southern California[J].Proc Natl Acad Sci,2002,99(26):16 562-16 567.
[16]Sykes L R,JaumèS.Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long term precursor to large earth-quakes in the San Fancisco Bay area[J].Nature,1990,348:595-599.
[17]Ellsworth W L,LINDH A G,Prescott W H,et al.The 1906 San Francisco earthquake and theseismic cycle,In Earthquake Prediction:An International Review[M].1981.21-27.
[18]Kananmori H.The energy release in great earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,1977,82:1 981-1 987.
[19]Papazachos B,Papazachos C.Accelerated Preshock Deformation of Broad Regions in the Aegean Ar-ea[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2000,157:1 663-1 681.
[20]Knopoff,Levshina,Keilis-Borok,et al.Increased long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake ac-tivity prior to strong earthquakes in California[J].J G R,1996,101(B3):5 779-5 796.
[21]Bowman,Quillon D D,Sammis G,et al.An observational test of the critical earthquake concept[J].J Geophys Res,1998,103:24 359-24 372.
[22]Ben-Zion Yehuda,Lyakhovsky Vladimir.Accelerated seismic release and related aspects of seismici-ty patterns on earthquake faults[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2002,159:2 385-2 412.
[23]Bufe C G,Nishenko S P,Varnes D J.Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in theAlaska-Aleutian region[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1994,142:83-99.
[24]杨文政,马丽.地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用[J].地震学报,1999,21(1):32-41.
[25]蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.中强震前地震活动矩释放加速现象(AMR)的普遍性问题[J].中国地震,2004,20(2):119-125.
[26]Papazachos C B,Karakaisis G F,Scordilis E M,et al.New observational information on the precur-sory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release[J].Tectonophysics,2006,243:83-96.
[27]Papazachos C B,Karakaisis G F,Scordilis E M,et al.Probabilities of activation of seismic faults incritical regions of the Aegean area[J].Geophys J Int,2004,159:679-687.
[28]Papazachos C B,Scordilis E M,Karakaisis G F,et al.Decelerating preshock seismic deformation infault regions during critical periods[J].Bull Geol Soc Greece,2004,36:1-9.
[29]Papazachos C B,Karakaisis G F,Scordilis E M,et al.Global observational properties of the criticalearthquake model[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,2005,95:1 841-1 855.
[30]Changsheng Jiang,Zhongliang Wu.Accelerating Strain Release before strong Earthquakes:MoreComplex in the Real World[J].Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2005,22(3):286-291
[31]秦嘉政,皇甫岗,钱晓东.云南强震活动与预测方法研究[M].昆明:云南科技出版社,2005.242-258.
[32]Brehm D J,Braile L W.Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using the modified time-to failure insouthern California[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1999,89(1):275-293.
[33]Z ller G,Hainzl S,Kurths J,et al.A systematic test on precursory seismic quiescence in Armenia[J].Nat Hazards,2002,26:245-263.
[34]JaumèB C.Moment release rate variations during the seismic circle in the Alaska-Aleutians subduc-tion zone.extended abstrac,Proceed,Wadati Conference on Great Subduction Earthquakes[M].U-niversity of Alaska,1992,123-128.
[35]Wenzheng Yang,Vere-Jones,Ma Li.A proposed method for locating the critical region of a futureearthquake using the critical earthquake concept[J].J Geophys Res,2001,106:4121-4128.
[2]Gabrielov,Newman,Turcotte.An exactly soluble hierarchical clustering model:Inverse cascades,self-similarity and scaling[J].Phys Rev E,1999,60:5 293-5 300.
[3]Press F,Allen C.Pattern of seismic release in the Southern California region[J].J Geophys Res,1995,100:6 421-6 430.
[4]Romanowicz B.Spatiotemporal patterns in the energy-release of great earthquakes[J].Science,1993,260:1 923-1 926.
[5]JaumèR.Sykes Evolving Towards a Critical Point:A Review of Accelerating Seismic Moment/En-ergy Release Prior to Large and Great Earthquake[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1999,155:279-306.
[6]Keilis-Borok V I,Soloviev A A.Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction[J].Springer-Verlag,Heidelberg,2003,355:136-149.
[7]Bufe Varnes.Pridictive modeling of seismic cycling of the greater San Francisco Bay region[J].JGeophys Res,1993,98:9 871-9 883.
[8]Pollitz,Roland Burgmann,Barbara Romanowicz.Viscosity of Oceanic Asthenosphere Inferred fromRemote Triggering of Earthquakes[J].Science,1998,280:1 245-1 249.
[9]Aki K.Scale dependence in earthquake phenomena and its relevance to earthquake prediction[J].Proc Natl Acad Sci,1996,93:3 748-3 755.
[10]Shaw B E,Carlson J M,Langer J S.Patterns of seismic activity preceding large earthquakes[J].JGeophys Res,1992,97:479-492.
[11]Gabrielov A M,Zaliapin I V,et al.Colliding cascades model for earthquake prediction[J].GeophysJ Int,2000,143:427-437.
[12]Zaliapin,Keilis-Borok V I,Ghil M.A Boolean delay equation model of colliding cascades,Part II:Prediction of critical transitions[J].J Stat Phys,2003,111(3-4):839-861.
[13]Shebalin P,Zaliapin I,Keilis-Borok V I.Premonitory rise of the earthquakes′correlation range:lesser Antilles[J].Phys Earth Planet Int,2000,122(3-4):241-249.
[14]Z ller,Hainzl,Kurths.Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical pointbehavior prior to large earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,2001,106:2 167-2 176.
[15]Keilis-Borok V I,Shebalin P N,Zaliapin I V.Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before alarge earthquake:five case histories in southern California[J].Proc Natl Acad Sci,2002,99(26):16 562-16 567.
[16]Sykes L R,JaumèS.Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long term precursor to large earth-quakes in the San Fancisco Bay area[J].Nature,1990,348:595-599.
[17]Ellsworth W L,LINDH A G,Prescott W H,et al.The 1906 San Francisco earthquake and theseismic cycle,In Earthquake Prediction:An International Review[M].1981.21-27.
[18]Kananmori H.The energy release in great earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,1977,82:1 981-1 987.
[19]Papazachos B,Papazachos C.Accelerated Preshock Deformation of Broad Regions in the Aegean Ar-ea[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2000,157:1 663-1 681.
[20]Knopoff,Levshina,Keilis-Borok,et al.Increased long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake ac-tivity prior to strong earthquakes in California[J].J G R,1996,101(B3):5 779-5 796.
[21]Bowman,Quillon D D,Sammis G,et al.An observational test of the critical earthquake concept[J].J Geophys Res,1998,103:24 359-24 372.
[22]Ben-Zion Yehuda,Lyakhovsky Vladimir.Accelerated seismic release and related aspects of seismici-ty patterns on earthquake faults[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2002,159:2 385-2 412.
[23]Bufe C G,Nishenko S P,Varnes D J.Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in theAlaska-Aleutian region[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1994,142:83-99.
[24]杨文政,马丽.地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用[J].地震学报,1999,21(1):32-41.
[25]蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.中强震前地震活动矩释放加速现象(AMR)的普遍性问题[J].中国地震,2004,20(2):119-125.
[26]Papazachos C B,Karakaisis G F,Scordilis E M,et al.New observational information on the precur-sory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release[J].Tectonophysics,2006,243:83-96.
[27]Papazachos C B,Karakaisis G F,Scordilis E M,et al.Probabilities of activation of seismic faults incritical regions of the Aegean area[J].Geophys J Int,2004,159:679-687.
[28]Papazachos C B,Scordilis E M,Karakaisis G F,et al.Decelerating preshock seismic deformation infault regions during critical periods[J].Bull Geol Soc Greece,2004,36:1-9.
[29]Papazachos C B,Karakaisis G F,Scordilis E M,et al.Global observational properties of the criticalearthquake model[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,2005,95:1 841-1 855.
[30]Changsheng Jiang,Zhongliang Wu.Accelerating Strain Release before strong Earthquakes:MoreComplex in the Real World[J].Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2005,22(3):286-291
[31]秦嘉政,皇甫岗,钱晓东.云南强震活动与预测方法研究[M].昆明:云南科技出版社,2005.242-258.
[32]Brehm D J,Braile L W.Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using the modified time-to failure insouthern California[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1999,89(1):275-293.
[33]Z ller G,Hainzl S,Kurths J,et al.A systematic test on precursory seismic quiescence in Armenia[J].Nat Hazards,2002,26:245-263.
[34]JaumèB C.Moment release rate variations during the seismic circle in the Alaska-Aleutians subduc-tion zone.extended abstrac,Proceed,Wadati Conference on Great Subduction Earthquakes[M].U-niversity of Alaska,1992,123-128.
[35]Wenzheng Yang,Vere-Jones,Ma Li.A proposed method for locating the critical region of a futureearthquake using the critical earthquake concept[J].J Geophys Res,2001,106:4121-4128.
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