关于地震预警的几个问题
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摘要
地震预警是建立在高密度地震台网基础上的新技术,本文就地震预警的一些基本概念、关键技术、预警效果、预警部署及其在防震减灾方面的作用等进行了讨论,指出了地震预警存在的问题,以及需要研究的方向,并首次提出了预警能力、预警无效区、预警受益区、预警反应时间的概念。地震预警能力受预警系统的制约,实际地震预警能力除与台网密度、预警模式、自动处理系统、数据传输模式、发布系统等因素有关外,还与地震破裂性质有关。同时强调地震预警部署是复杂的社会工程,需要全社会的共同参与。
Earthquake Early Warning is a new technology which is based on high density seismic network.In this paper,the authors discussed some of the basic concepts,key technologies,early-warning results and early-warning deployment,and its role in the aspect of earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation.This paper points out the existing problems of Earthquake Early Warning and the research directions.The paper puts forward for the first time the concepts of early warning capacity,early warning invalid region,early warning benefit area,and early warning response time.Earthquake Early Warning capacity is constrained by early warning system.Besides the network density,early warning model,automatic processing system,data transmission mode,and information distribution system,the actual Earthquake Early Warning capacity is related to the nature of earthquake rupture.The paper emphasizes that the earthquake warning deployment is a complex social engineering,and it requires the participation of the whole society.
Earthquake Early Warning is a new technology which is based on high density seismic network.In this paper,the authors discussed some of the basic concepts,key technologies,early-warning results and early-warning deployment,and its role in the aspect of earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation.This paper points out the existing problems of Earthquake Early Warning and the research directions.The paper puts forward for the first time the concepts of early warning capacity,early warning invalid region,early warning benefit area,and early warning response time.Earthquake Early Warning capacity is constrained by early warning system.Besides the network density,early warning model,automatic processing system,data transmission mode,and information distribution system,the actual Earthquake Early Warning capacity is related to the nature of earthquake rupture.The paper emphasizes that the earthquake warning deployment is a complex social engineering,and it requires the participation of the whole society.
引文
陈会忠、侯燕燕、何加勇等,2011,日本地震预警系统日趋完善,国际地震动态,4(4),10～16。
黄媛、杨建思,2006,用于地震预警系统中的快速地震定位方法综述,国际地震动态,(12),1～5。
黄俊、姚运生、王秋良等,2011,地震预警中的单台综合定位方法,大地测量与地球动力学,31(2),142～145。
金星、张红才、韦永祥等,2010,基于地震监测台网资料近实时插值计算震动图的初步研究,防灾减灾学报,26(1),1～11。
李山有、金星、马强等,2004,地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究,世界地震工程,20(4):21～2。
刘如山、林均歧、郭恩栋,2005,自然灾害学报,14,140。
马强,2008,地震预警技术研究及应用,哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所。
梅世蓉等,1982,一九七六年唐山地震,北京:地震出版社。
孔庆凯、赵鸣,2010,地震预警系统中的算法研究,灾害学,25(增刊),305～308。
吴忠良、蒋长胜,2007,预警的概念及相关物理问题,物理与社会,36(6),272～275。
袁志祥、单修政、徐世芳等,2007,地震预警技术综述,自然灾害学报,16(6),216～223。
张红才、金星、李军等,2011,地震预警定位方法研究,地震工程与工程振动,31(3),168～177。
赵纪东、张志强,2009,地震预警系统的发展应用及启示,地质通报,28(4),456～462。
朱福祥、郭迅、李山有等,2002,重大工程地震预警初步研究,世界地震工程,18(3):32～36。
Allen R M&Kanamori H,2003,The potential for earthquake early warning in Southern California,Science,300,786～789.
Allen R M,2007,Earthquake hazard mitigation:New directions and opportunities,Earthquake Seismology,Treatise onGeophysics,4,607～648.
Castaos H and Cinna Lomnitz,2013,Understanding Ambivalence:Earthquakes(in press).
Cifuentes S L,1989,Low-frequency source characteristics of the great1960Chilean earthquake,JGR,94(B1),643～663.
Erik L Olson,Richard M Allen,2005,The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture,Nature,438:212～215,doi:10.1038/nature04214
Heimpel M H,2003,Characteristic scales of earthquake rupture from numerical models,Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,10,573～584.
Hoshiba M,Kamigaichi O,Saito M,et al,2008,Earthquake early warning starts nationwide in Japan,EOS,Transact AmGeophys Un,89(8),73～74.
Kamigaichi O,2004,JMA Earthquake Early Warning,J Japan Assoc Earthq Engineering,4,134～137.
Kanamori H and John J Cipar,1974,Focal process of the great Chilean earthquake May22,1960,Physics of the Earthquake andPlanetary Interiors,9(1974),128～136.
Nakamura Y,1984,Development of the earthquake early-warning system for the Shinkansen,some recent earthquake engineeringresearch and practical in Japan,The Japanese National Committee of the International Association for Earthquake Engineering,224～238.
Nakamura Y,1988,On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system(UrEDAS),Proc Ninth World Conf Earthq Eng,7,673～678.
Nakamura Y,and Saita J,2007,UrEDAS,The Earthquake Warning System:today and tomorrow.In:Gasparini P,Manfredi G,and Zschau J(eds).Earthquake Early Warning Systems,Springer,Berlin:249～281.
Nakamura H,Horiuchi S,Wu C,et al,2009,Evaluation of the real-time earthquake information system in Japan,Geophys ResLett,36;doi:10.1029/2008GL036470.
Wu Y M,and Kanamori H,2005a,Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system,BullSeism Soc Am,95,347～353.
Wu Y M,and Kanamori H,2005b,Rapid assessment of damaging potential of earthquakes in Taiwan from the beginning of PWaves,Bull Seism Soc Am,95,1181～1185.
Wu Y M,and Zhao L,2006,Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P-wave amplitude in earthquake early warning,Geophys Res Lett,33:L16312,doi:10.1029/2006GL026871.
Wu Y M,Hsiao N C,Lee W H K,et al,2007a,State of the art and progresses of early warning system in Taiwan.In:GaspariniP,Manfredi G,and Zschau J(eds),Earthquake Early Warning Systems,Springer,Berlin:283～306.
Wu Y M,Kanamori H,Allen R,et al,2007b,Determination of earthquake early warning parameters,τc and Pd,for southernCalifornia,Geophys J Int,169,667～674.
Wu Y M,and Kanamori H,2008,Exploring the feasibility of on-site earthquake early warning using close-in records of the2007Noto Hanto earthquake,Earth Planets Space,60,155～160.
Zhang Chaojun,Li Weidong,Li Dahui,2010,Early estimation of epicenter seismic intensities according to co-seismicdeformation,Geofísica Internacional,49(2),107～112.
黄媛、杨建思,2006,用于地震预警系统中的快速地震定位方法综述,国际地震动态,(12),1～5。
黄俊、姚运生、王秋良等,2011,地震预警中的单台综合定位方法,大地测量与地球动力学,31(2),142～145。
金星、张红才、韦永祥等,2010,基于地震监测台网资料近实时插值计算震动图的初步研究,防灾减灾学报,26(1),1～11。
李山有、金星、马强等,2004,地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究,世界地震工程,20(4):21～2。
刘如山、林均歧、郭恩栋,2005,自然灾害学报,14,140。
马强,2008,地震预警技术研究及应用,哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所。
梅世蓉等,1982,一九七六年唐山地震,北京:地震出版社。
孔庆凯、赵鸣,2010,地震预警系统中的算法研究,灾害学,25(增刊),305～308。
吴忠良、蒋长胜,2007,预警的概念及相关物理问题,物理与社会,36(6),272～275。
袁志祥、单修政、徐世芳等,2007,地震预警技术综述,自然灾害学报,16(6),216～223。
张红才、金星、李军等,2011,地震预警定位方法研究,地震工程与工程振动,31(3),168～177。
赵纪东、张志强,2009,地震预警系统的发展应用及启示,地质通报,28(4),456～462。
朱福祥、郭迅、李山有等,2002,重大工程地震预警初步研究,世界地震工程,18(3):32～36。
Allen R M&Kanamori H,2003,The potential for earthquake early warning in Southern California,Science,300,786～789.
Allen R M,2007,Earthquake hazard mitigation:New directions and opportunities,Earthquake Seismology,Treatise onGeophysics,4,607～648.
Castaos H and Cinna Lomnitz,2013,Understanding Ambivalence:Earthquakes(in press).
Cifuentes S L,1989,Low-frequency source characteristics of the great1960Chilean earthquake,JGR,94(B1),643～663.
Erik L Olson,Richard M Allen,2005,The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture,Nature,438:212～215,doi:10.1038/nature04214
Heimpel M H,2003,Characteristic scales of earthquake rupture from numerical models,Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,10,573～584.
Hoshiba M,Kamigaichi O,Saito M,et al,2008,Earthquake early warning starts nationwide in Japan,EOS,Transact AmGeophys Un,89(8),73～74.
Kamigaichi O,2004,JMA Earthquake Early Warning,J Japan Assoc Earthq Engineering,4,134～137.
Kanamori H and John J Cipar,1974,Focal process of the great Chilean earthquake May22,1960,Physics of the Earthquake andPlanetary Interiors,9(1974),128～136.
Nakamura Y,1984,Development of the earthquake early-warning system for the Shinkansen,some recent earthquake engineeringresearch and practical in Japan,The Japanese National Committee of the International Association for Earthquake Engineering,224～238.
Nakamura Y,1988,On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system(UrEDAS),Proc Ninth World Conf Earthq Eng,7,673～678.
Nakamura Y,and Saita J,2007,UrEDAS,The Earthquake Warning System:today and tomorrow.In:Gasparini P,Manfredi G,and Zschau J(eds).Earthquake Early Warning Systems,Springer,Berlin:249～281.
Nakamura H,Horiuchi S,Wu C,et al,2009,Evaluation of the real-time earthquake information system in Japan,Geophys ResLett,36;doi:10.1029/2008GL036470.
Wu Y M,and Kanamori H,2005a,Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system,BullSeism Soc Am,95,347～353.
Wu Y M,and Kanamori H,2005b,Rapid assessment of damaging potential of earthquakes in Taiwan from the beginning of PWaves,Bull Seism Soc Am,95,1181～1185.
Wu Y M,and Zhao L,2006,Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P-wave amplitude in earthquake early warning,Geophys Res Lett,33:L16312,doi:10.1029/2006GL026871.
Wu Y M,Hsiao N C,Lee W H K,et al,2007a,State of the art and progresses of early warning system in Taiwan.In:GaspariniP,Manfredi G,and Zschau J(eds),Earthquake Early Warning Systems,Springer,Berlin:283～306.
Wu Y M,Kanamori H,Allen R,et al,2007b,Determination of earthquake early warning parameters,τc and Pd,for southernCalifornia,Geophys J Int,169,667～674.
Wu Y M,and Kanamori H,2008,Exploring the feasibility of on-site earthquake early warning using close-in records of the2007Noto Hanto earthquake,Earth Planets Space,60,155～160.
Zhang Chaojun,Li Weidong,Li Dahui,2010,Early estimation of epicenter seismic intensities according to co-seismicdeformation,Geofísica Internacional,49(2),107～112.
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