考虑变量相关性的尾矿坝坡失稳溃坝概率计算方法
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摘要
对国内外尾矿坝溃坝事故进行整理分析,得出坝坡失稳是导致溃坝的一个主要原因,利用突变理论对坝坡失稳进行分析,从突变学角度证明内摩擦角和粘聚力是尾矿坝坡失稳溃坝的主要影响因素。摒弃传统的尾矿坝抗滑稳定性安全系数定值计算方法,选取综合考虑诸因素的不确定性的概率方法来计算尾矿坝坡失稳溃坝概率,确定内摩擦角和粘聚力作为随机参数,建立尾矿坝坡失稳破坏的功能函数,确定模拟次数;采用考虑随机变量相关性的蒙特卡罗进行尾矿坝坡失稳溃坝概率计算。该方法成功克服了matlab传统子集模拟方法只能解决随机变量为正态分布且变量之间相互独立的不足,并以某尾矿坝为例对其因坝坡失稳导致的溃坝概率进行了计算。
The accidents of tailings dam failure at home and abroad were analyzed,and it showed that the dam slope instability was a major reason causing dam failure. The dam slope instability was analyzed by the catastrophe theory,and it proved from the perspective of catastrophe that the internal friction angle and cohesion strength were the main influence factors of dam slope instability and failure. Abandoning the traditional calculation method on anti-slide stability safety coefficient of tailings dam,the probability method comprehensively considering the uncertainty of each factor was selected to calculate the probability of dam failure. The internal friction angle and cohesion strength were taken as random parameters,the function of dam slope instability and failure was established,and the number of simulation was determined. The Monte Carlo considering the correlation between random variables was applied to calculate the probability of dam failure. This method overcomes the shortcomings that the traditional Matlab subset simulation method can only solve the problems that random variables are normal distribution and the variables are independent. Taking a tailings dam as example,the probability of tailings dam failure caused by dam slope instability was calculated.
The accidents of tailings dam failure at home and abroad were analyzed,and it showed that the dam slope instability was a major reason causing dam failure. The dam slope instability was analyzed by the catastrophe theory,and it proved from the perspective of catastrophe that the internal friction angle and cohesion strength were the main influence factors of dam slope instability and failure. Abandoning the traditional calculation method on anti-slide stability safety coefficient of tailings dam,the probability method comprehensively considering the uncertainty of each factor was selected to calculate the probability of dam failure. The internal friction angle and cohesion strength were taken as random parameters,the function of dam slope instability and failure was established,and the number of simulation was determined. The Monte Carlo considering the correlation between random variables was applied to calculate the probability of dam failure. This method overcomes the shortcomings that the traditional Matlab subset simulation method can only solve the problems that random variables are normal distribution and the variables are independent. Taking a tailings dam as example,the probability of tailings dam failure caused by dam slope instability was calculated.
引文
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[3]魏勇,许开立.集对分析法在尾矿坝稳定性安全评价中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(9):101-105WEI Yong,XU Kai-li.Application of set pair analysis on safety evaluation of tailing dam stability[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2012,8(9):101-105
[4]胡平安,韩森.基于JC法尾矿坝稳定性可靠度研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):56-60HU Ping-an,HAN Sen.Reach on reliability of tailing dam stability based on JC methed.[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2010,6(4):56-60
[5]潘建平,刘湘平,朱洪威,等.尾矿坝地震液化评价可靠度模型及应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(2):23-28PAN Jian-ping,LIU Xiang-ping,ZHU Hong-wei.Reliability model of seismic liquefaction evaluation for tailings dam and its application[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2013,9(2):23-28
[6]R.M.Bnneettnad A.H-S.Ang,“Investigation of mehtods for surtcurtal system relibaility”,University of Illinois at Ubrana-Chma Paing,September 1983
[7]Hka-Fong Ma and A.H-S.Ang,“Relibaility analysis of redundant ductile structural systmes”,Univesrity of Illionis at Urbana-Cham Paign,August,1981
[8]傅旭东.相关变量下失效概率的计算机模拟.西南交通大学,1996;(3):319-323FU Xu-dong.Simulation of failure probability of correlated foundamental variables in geo-engineering[J].South West Jiaotong University,1996;(3):319-323
[9]DER KIUREGHIAN A,LIU P L.Structural reliability under incomplete probability information[J].Journal of Engineering Mechanics,1986,112(1):85-104
[10]Liu P-L,Der Kiureghian A.Multivariate distribution models with prescribed marginal and covariances[J].Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,1986,1(2):105-112
[2]熊传祥,龚晓南,王成华.高速滑坡临滑变形能突变模型的研究[J].浙江大学学报,2000,34(4):443-447XIONG Chuan-xiang,GONG Xiao-nan,WANG Chenghua.A deformation energy catastrophic model of high speed landslide before sliding[J].Journal of Zhejiang University,2000,34(4):443-447
[3]魏勇,许开立.集对分析法在尾矿坝稳定性安全评价中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(9):101-105WEI Yong,XU Kai-li.Application of set pair analysis on safety evaluation of tailing dam stability[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2012,8(9):101-105
[4]胡平安,韩森.基于JC法尾矿坝稳定性可靠度研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):56-60HU Ping-an,HAN Sen.Reach on reliability of tailing dam stability based on JC methed.[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2010,6(4):56-60
[5]潘建平,刘湘平,朱洪威,等.尾矿坝地震液化评价可靠度模型及应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(2):23-28PAN Jian-ping,LIU Xiang-ping,ZHU Hong-wei.Reliability model of seismic liquefaction evaluation for tailings dam and its application[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2013,9(2):23-28
[6]R.M.Bnneettnad A.H-S.Ang,“Investigation of mehtods for surtcurtal system relibaility”,University of Illinois at Ubrana-Chma Paing,September 1983
[7]Hka-Fong Ma and A.H-S.Ang,“Relibaility analysis of redundant ductile structural systmes”,Univesrity of Illionis at Urbana-Cham Paign,August,1981
[8]傅旭东.相关变量下失效概率的计算机模拟.西南交通大学,1996;(3):319-323FU Xu-dong.Simulation of failure probability of correlated foundamental variables in geo-engineering[J].South West Jiaotong University,1996;(3):319-323
[9]DER KIUREGHIAN A,LIU P L.Structural reliability under incomplete probability information[J].Journal of Engineering Mechanics,1986,112(1):85-104
[10]Liu P-L,Der Kiureghian A.Multivariate distribution models with prescribed marginal and covariances[J].Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,1986,1(2):105-112
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