大数据灾害预测与警情流转机制
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摘要
经济4.0时代的大数据灾害预测与警情流转机制具有提高预警正效率、发掘预警客观规律、增加预警精细度等特殊优势。实际运作过程中暴露出原始数据量值偏低、灾害预测误差明显和警情发布错漏百出等严重影响有序预警的诸多风险。亟待通过建立预警阈值标准体系与交互共享系统、构筑相关法律保障体系以及创设预警人力资源平台等举措形成科学高效的大数据灾害预警框架。
Hazard prediction and warning signal spreading with large dataset in Economy 4.0 have advantages in improving efficiency, mining regularities and increasing accuracy of hazard prediction. There are many risks that include the lower total information, the error hazard prediction, and the howler warning signal dissemination. It is urgent to form a scientific and efficient framework of hazard prediction and warning signal spreading with large dataset by establishing the mass threshold standard system, improving the sharing system of hazard prediction information, conducting the legal protective mechanism of hazard prediction and creating the human resource platform, etc.
Hazard prediction and warning signal spreading with large dataset in Economy 4.0 have advantages in improving efficiency, mining regularities and increasing accuracy of hazard prediction. There are many risks that include the lower total information, the error hazard prediction, and the howler warning signal dissemination. It is urgent to form a scientific and efficient framework of hazard prediction and warning signal spreading with large dataset by establishing the mass threshold standard system, improving the sharing system of hazard prediction information, conducting the legal protective mechanism of hazard prediction and creating the human resource platform, etc.
引文
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[2]Jaroslav Mysiak.Targeting the Global Efforts to Reduce Disaster Risk[J].Review of Environment,Energy and Economics.2015(3).
[3]Levs Fainglozs.Problems of Data Collection,Processing and Use of Informal Venture Capital[J].Social and Behavioral Sciences,2014(150).
[4]习近平.让工程科技造福人类、创造未来——在2014年国际工程科技大会上的主旨演讲[EB/OL].[2015-04-03].http://news.xinhuanet.com/2014-06/03/c_1110966948.htm.
[5]Thomas Edsall.Let the Nanotargeting Begin[EB/OL].[2015-04-03].http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/let-the-nanotargeting-begin/.
[6]蒋洁.大数据联动的负面效应及对策研究[J].情报资料工作,2014(4):11-15.
[7]张福芳.利用科技创新推进洪水灾害预测预报发展[N].湖南日报,2015-03-28.
[8]郑焕斌.自然灾害预测:科学做到了什么程度?[N].科技日报,2013-01-20.
[9]章剑生.阳光下的“阴影”———《政府信息公开条例》中“不公开事项”之法理分析[J].政法论丛,2009(6):12-20.
[10]Ann Washington.Can Big Data Be Described as a Data Supply Chain?[R].The Working Report of George Mason University,2014.
[11]邹铭,范一大,杨思全,等.自然灾害风险管理与预警体系[M].北京:科学出版社,2010:72.
[12]司瑞洁,温家洪,尹占斌,等.EM-DAT灾难数据库概述及其应用研究[J].科技导报,2007(6):62-69.
[13]雅安7.0级地震大数据上阵助建预警机制[EB/OL].[2015-04-03].http://www.afzhan.com/news/detail/26247.html.
[14]Yuvraj Dilip Patil.Disaster Affected Environmental Refugees and Human Rights[EB/OL].[2015-04-03].http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2002497.
[15]Joost Buurman,Ruben Dahm,Albert Goedbloed.Monitoring and Early Warning Systems for Droughts:Lessons from Floods[R].The Working Report of National University of Singapore,2014.
[16]Tor Lillegraven.Untangling the Ambidexterity Dilemma Through Big Data Analytics[J].Journal of Organization Design,2014(3).
[17]James Manyika,Michael Chui,Brad Brown.Big Data:The Next Frontier for Innovation,Competition,and Productivity[EB/OL].[2015-04-03].http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/big_dta_the_next_frontier_for_innovation.
[18]Rick Swedloff.Risk Classification’s Big Data Evolution[J].Connecticut Insurance Law Journal,2014(21).
[19]柴会群,田香凝.成都减灾所雅安预警之辨[N].南京周末,2013-04-25.
[20]成都高新减灾研究所快速绘制云南沧源地震“两张图”[EB/OL].[2015-04-03].http://www.sc.xinhuanet.com/content/2015-03/03/c_1114501627.htm.
[21]魏恒.加强气象灾害预警信息发布形成防汛抗灾合力[N].广西日报,2014-05-20.
[22]Omer Tene,Jules Polonetsky.Privacy in the Age of Big Data:A Time for Big Decisions[EB/OL].[2015-03-03].http://www.stanfordlawreview.org/online/privacy-parado x/big-data.
[23]Wolter Lemstra.Wi-Fi the Next Decade[EB/OL].[2015-04-03].http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2585420.
[24]Aleksandar Hudic.Data Confidentiality using Fragmentation in Cloud Computing[J].International Journal for Communication Networks and Distributed Systems,2012(1).
[25]Yutaka Matsuo.Tweet analysis for real-time event detection and earthquake reporting system development[J].IEEE Trains.Knowl.Data,2013(25).
[26]董翔,肖兰喜,杜宪宋,等.基于网络的山东地震灾情收集分析处理系统[J].华北地震科学,2007(3):8-12,35.
[27]张静.气象大数据时代真的到了吗?[N].中国气象报,2014-05-06.
[28]Erik Brynjolfsson.Strength in Numbers:How Does Data-Driven Decision-making Affect Firm Performance?[EB/OL].[2015-04-03].http://ssrn.com/abstract=1819486.
[29]黄国平,武旭红,张宏.面向灾害大数据预警信息高速处理的规则引擎[J].计算机技术与发展,2014(4):245-248.
[30]吴洁.气象局:气象灾害预警信息不会收费[N].南方周末,2012-08-01.
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