金沙江乌东德水库诱发地震统计预测研究
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摘要
为了研究乌东德水库诱发地震的可能性,在选用国内外377座已建水库统计资料的基础上,对乌东德水库诱发地震进行预测分析。针对具体地质条件,共选出了10个影响因子,并将影响因子细化为3种不同状态,在此基础上建立了水库诱发地震预测统计模型。模型将诱震的10个概率因子表述为几个相应的地理位置可以完全叠加的矢量图层,然后进行GIS图层计算,实现了水库诱发地震的统计预测。研究结果表明,乌东德水库具备诱发地震的可能性。
In order to study the earthquake possibility induced by Wudongde Hydropower Station,through analyzing the statistical data of 377 built reservoirs in the world,an evaluation and prediction on reservoir induced earthquake of Wudongde Hydropower Station is conducted.10 influential factors are determined according to the geological condition at the site,which are divided into 3 different states furtherly,and therefore a prediction model for reservoir induced earthquake is established.The model manifests itself by representing the 10 influential factors on corresponding vector-layers which could be superpositioned totally,then the calculation of GIS layer is carried out to realize the statistics and prediction of reservoir induced earthquake.The results indicate that the possibility of earthquake induced by Wudongde Reservoir can not be ignored.
In order to study the earthquake possibility induced by Wudongde Hydropower Station,through analyzing the statistical data of 377 built reservoirs in the world,an evaluation and prediction on reservoir induced earthquake of Wudongde Hydropower Station is conducted.10 influential factors are determined according to the geological condition at the site,which are divided into 3 different states furtherly,and therefore a prediction model for reservoir induced earthquake is established.The model manifests itself by representing the 10 influential factors on corresponding vector-layers which could be superpositioned totally,then the calculation of GIS layer is carried out to realize the statistics and prediction of reservoir induced earthquake.The results indicate that the possibility of earthquake induced by Wudongde Reservoir can not be ignored.
引文
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