云南昭通“9·7地震”的前瞻性预测验证
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摘要
基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,作者曾在2010年11月就发表文章对昭通孕震区震情进行了分析,并给出了该区域未来强震的震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及Benioff应变临界触发值.通过与此次2012年9月7号云南昭通发生的MS5.7、5.6级双震进行比较,认为这次双震发生的实际Benioff应变临界触发值与预测值非常接近,表明该理论方法能够可靠地应用于中等强度预震和主震的预测.
Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method developed by us,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for ZhaoTong seismic zone have been obtained and published in advance in November 2010.In comparison with the ZhaoTong double earthquakes MS 5.7|and 5.6 in Yunnan occurred on September 7,2012,it is shown that the actual cumulative Benioff strain is consistent to prediction value.Thus,we think this new method has wide applicability for the strong earthquake.
Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method developed by us,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for ZhaoTong seismic zone have been obtained and published in advance in November 2010.In comparison with the ZhaoTong double earthquakes MS 5.7|and 5.6 in Yunnan occurred on September 7,2012,it is shown that the actual cumulative Benioff strain is consistent to prediction value.Thus,we think this new method has wide applicability for the strong earthquake.
引文
[1]秦四清,薛雷,徐锡伟,等.川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川MW7.9级地震孕震过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(11):2639-2650.(Qin S Q,Xue L,Xu X W,et al.A forwardprediction of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnanregion and analysis on the seismogenic process of theWenchuan MW7.9earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(inChinese),2010,53(11):2639-2650).
[2]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):1001-1014.(Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.Brittle failuremechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic faultsystem and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(4):1001-1014).
[3]秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(3):749-758.(Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Y,et al.Further verifications on the brittle failure theory of multiplelocked patches along a seismogenic fault system anddiscussions on some science issues[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(3):749-758).
[4]秦四清,熊巨华,薛雷,等.强震的孕育规律与孕震模式[J].地球科学与环境学报,2011,33(3):311-316.(Qin S Q,XiongJ H,XUE L,et al.Seismogenic Law and Mode of StrongEarthquakes.Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment(inChinese),2011,33(3):311-316).
[5]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(4):1168-1174.(Qin SQ,Xue L,Huang X,et al.Prediction of strong earthquakesin the Qinhai,Gansu and Ningxia regions[J].Progress inGeophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(4):1168-1174).
[6]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.山东、河北、河南、山西、辽宁海城与京津地区未来中强地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(5),1539-1549.(Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.A forwardprediction of moderate-sized or strong earthquakes inShandong,Hebei,Henan,Shanxi,Haicheng in Liaoningprovince and Beijing-Tianjing regions[J].Progress inGeophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(5):1539-1549).
[7]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.西藏地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(6):1879-1886.(Qin S Q,Xue L,HuangX,et al.A forward prediction of strong earthquakes in theTibet region[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(6):1879-1886).
[8]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.新疆与其边境地区、内蒙古地区及华东、华南与台湾部分地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(1):21-31.(Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et a l.Aforward prediction of strong earthquakes in the Xinjiang and itsborder regions,the inner Mongolia region,and certain regionsof east China,south China and Taiwan[J].Progress inGeophysic(in Chinese),2010,26(1):21-31).
[9]秦四清,薛雷.云南盈江MS5.8级地震和缅甸MS7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):462-468.(Qin S Q,Xue L.A summary of prediction for theYingjiang MS5.8earthquake in Yunnan and the Burma MS7.2earthquake as well as the analysis on the earthquake situationafter the earthquake[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,26(2):462-468).
[2]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):1001-1014.(Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.Brittle failuremechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic faultsystem and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(4):1001-1014).
[3]秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(3):749-758.(Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Y,et al.Further verifications on the brittle failure theory of multiplelocked patches along a seismogenic fault system anddiscussions on some science issues[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(3):749-758).
[4]秦四清,熊巨华,薛雷,等.强震的孕育规律与孕震模式[J].地球科学与环境学报,2011,33(3):311-316.(Qin S Q,XiongJ H,XUE L,et al.Seismogenic Law and Mode of StrongEarthquakes.Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment(inChinese),2011,33(3):311-316).
[5]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(4):1168-1174.(Qin SQ,Xue L,Huang X,et al.Prediction of strong earthquakesin the Qinhai,Gansu and Ningxia regions[J].Progress inGeophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(4):1168-1174).
[6]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.山东、河北、河南、山西、辽宁海城与京津地区未来中强地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(5),1539-1549.(Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.A forwardprediction of moderate-sized or strong earthquakes inShandong,Hebei,Henan,Shanxi,Haicheng in Liaoningprovince and Beijing-Tianjing regions[J].Progress inGeophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(5):1539-1549).
[7]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.西藏地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(6):1879-1886.(Qin S Q,Xue L,HuangX,et al.A forward prediction of strong earthquakes in theTibet region[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,25(6):1879-1886).
[8]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.新疆与其边境地区、内蒙古地区及华东、华南与台湾部分地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(1):21-31.(Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et a l.Aforward prediction of strong earthquakes in the Xinjiang and itsborder regions,the inner Mongolia region,and certain regionsof east China,south China and Taiwan[J].Progress inGeophysic(in Chinese),2010,26(1):21-31).
[9]秦四清,薛雷.云南盈江MS5.8级地震和缅甸MS7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):462-468.(Qin S Q,Xue L.A summary of prediction for theYingjiang MS5.8earthquake in Yunnan and the Burma MS7.2earthquake as well as the analysis on the earthquake situationafter the earthquake[J].Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),2010,26(2):462-468).
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