汶川地震与松潘地震前异常现象分析比较
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摘要
分析了1976年松潘7.2级地震和2008年汶川8.0级地震前异常现象。汶川8.0级地震为地震活跃期的首发大地震,震前区域性中小地震相对平静,区域地震活动b值为0.77;松潘7.2级地震是活跃期间发生的地震,震中附近地区地震活动密集,曾发生松潘黄龙6.5级地震,震前区域地震活动b值为0.62;汶川地震前区域主压应力方位与错动类型总体上与8.0级地震给出的解大体一致,这与松潘7.2级地震前的情况有显著差异,震前地震与余震震型有差异。根据观测数据的分析和异常判定结果认为,松潘地震与汶川地震前的观测异常没有一个台项是重复出现的,短临异常数前者显著多于后者。松潘地震与汶川地震前的宏观异常现象差异极大,更未出现火球、地光临震异常现象。这说明,已有的短临前兆观测异常的出现仅有个案特征,而无普适意义。
The anomalous items reported before both the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake are analyzed.The 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake is a first fore-earthquake.The seismicity level around the seismic source area before the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake is low.The b-value of the Songpan regional seismicity is 0.77.This event occurred in the seismic activity period and the seismic cluster occurred around the source area of the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake.The fore event is the Songpan-Huanglong M6.5 Earthquake and the b-value of regional seismicity is 0.62.The principle stress trend of this region and the slip type before the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake were almost as same as that calculated by the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake.This is different notably from that before the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake.The fore-earthquake and the after-earthquake pattern before the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake the earthquake were different from that of the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake.Our analysis on the observation data and the anomalous macro reports show that no anomalous items appeared again and the number of short and impend anomalous items appeared before the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake is bigger than that of the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake.The differences between two earthquakes are big.No fireball and ground light appeared.All these comparison and contracts show that there are many differences among different seismic events and no solid evidences for each seismic event exist.
The anomalous items reported before both the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake are analyzed.The 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake is a first fore-earthquake.The seismicity level around the seismic source area before the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake is low.The b-value of the Songpan regional seismicity is 0.77.This event occurred in the seismic activity period and the seismic cluster occurred around the source area of the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake.The fore event is the Songpan-Huanglong M6.5 Earthquake and the b-value of regional seismicity is 0.62.The principle stress trend of this region and the slip type before the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake were almost as same as that calculated by the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake.This is different notably from that before the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake.The fore-earthquake and the after-earthquake pattern before the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake the earthquake were different from that of the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake.Our analysis on the observation data and the anomalous macro reports show that no anomalous items appeared again and the number of short and impend anomalous items appeared before the 1976 Songpan M7.2 Earthquake is bigger than that of the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake.The differences between two earthquakes are big.No fireball and ground light appeared.All these comparison and contracts show that there are many differences among different seismic events and no solid evidences for each seismic event exist.
引文
[1]程式,任昭明,陈龙.1973年8月11日松潘(黄龙)6.5级地震[A].中国震例[C].北京:地震出版社,1988.
[2]程万正,张永久.论汶川8.0级地震前的地震活动及趋势估计问题[J].四川地震,2009,(3).
[3]程万正,任越霞,吴小平.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电地磁观测异常的分析与思考[J].四川地震,2010,(3).
[4]程万正,苏琴,孙毅.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地形变类观测异常的研究[J].四川地震,2011,(1).
[5]程万正,吴小平,官志君,等.汶川8.0级地震前上报的宏观异常现象及分析[J].四川地震,2010,(1).
[6]成尔林,李桂芳,陈和川.1976年四川省松潘—平武7.2级地震前后主压应力轴的方向特征[J].地震学报,1982,(4).
[7]刁桂岺,程万正,李桂芳,等.1976年松潘地震序列的小震震源机制[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1996,17(5).
[8]陈福源,蒋能强.松潘强震前的地光[J].地震战线,1980,(3).
[9]黄雪香,丁鉴海.1976年8月16日和8月23日松潘—平武两次7.2级地震前大范围的地磁异常[A].松潘地震预报学术讨论会文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[10]傅容珊,万柯松,崇加军,等.地震前兆还是其他因素?—与“汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探”作者商榷[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2).
[11]郝晓光,胡小刚.宽带地震仪资料证实汶川大地震“震前重力扰动”[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(4).
[12]郝晓光,胡小刚,许厚泽,等.汶川大地震前的重力扰动[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(3).
[13]罗灼礼,江在雄.1976年松潘—平武7.2级地震预报实践[J].中国地震,1989,5(3).
[14]陆明勇,房宗绯,赵丽葵.汶川8.0级地震前地下流体长趋势变化特征讨论[J].地震,2010,30(1).
[15]L.M.Jones,韩渭宾,E.Hauksson,金安蜀,等.松潘地震的震源机制及余震定位[A].松潘地震预报学术讨论会文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1976.
[16]力武常次[日]著.耿庆国译,卢振恒校.地震前兆现象[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.
[17]马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍,等.1966～1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[18]琼斯(L.M.Jones),韩渭宾,豪克森(E.Hauksson),等.1976年松潘地震的震源机制及余震定位[A].四川省地震局.松潘地震预报学术讨论会文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[19]钱复业,赵璧如,钱卫,等.汶川MS8.0地震的短临地电波动(潮汐力谐振和共振波)前兆[J].国际地震动态,2008,(7).
[20]晏锐.第6章地震前兆观测资料分析[A].中国地震局监测预报司编.汶川8.0级地震科学研究报告[C].北京:地震出版社,2009.
[21]张致伟,程万正,阮祥,吴朋.汶川8.0级地震前龙门山断裂带的地震活动性和构造应力场特征[J].地震学报,2009,31(2).
[22]朱皆佐.松潘与海城、龙陵、唐山等动物习性异常的对比研究[A].四川省地震局.松潘地震预报学术讨论会文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[23]朱皆佐.火球—松潘—平武地震的地光[J].地震战线,1978,(4).
[24]朱皆佐.宏观异常为什么几起几落[J].地震战线,1978,(4).
[25]Wallace,R.E.and T.L.Teng.Prediction of the Songpan-Pingwu Earthquakes[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am,1980,70(4).
[2]程万正,张永久.论汶川8.0级地震前的地震活动及趋势估计问题[J].四川地震,2009,(3).
[3]程万正,任越霞,吴小平.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电地磁观测异常的分析与思考[J].四川地震,2010,(3).
[4]程万正,苏琴,孙毅.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地形变类观测异常的研究[J].四川地震,2011,(1).
[5]程万正,吴小平,官志君,等.汶川8.0级地震前上报的宏观异常现象及分析[J].四川地震,2010,(1).
[6]成尔林,李桂芳,陈和川.1976年四川省松潘—平武7.2级地震前后主压应力轴的方向特征[J].地震学报,1982,(4).
[7]刁桂岺,程万正,李桂芳,等.1976年松潘地震序列的小震震源机制[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1996,17(5).
[8]陈福源,蒋能强.松潘强震前的地光[J].地震战线,1980,(3).
[9]黄雪香,丁鉴海.1976年8月16日和8月23日松潘—平武两次7.2级地震前大范围的地磁异常[A].松潘地震预报学术讨论会文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[10]傅容珊,万柯松,崇加军,等.地震前兆还是其他因素?—与“汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探”作者商榷[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2).
[11]郝晓光,胡小刚.宽带地震仪资料证实汶川大地震“震前重力扰动”[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(4).
[12]郝晓光,胡小刚,许厚泽,等.汶川大地震前的重力扰动[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(3).
[13]罗灼礼,江在雄.1976年松潘—平武7.2级地震预报实践[J].中国地震,1989,5(3).
[14]陆明勇,房宗绯,赵丽葵.汶川8.0级地震前地下流体长趋势变化特征讨论[J].地震,2010,30(1).
[15]L.M.Jones,韩渭宾,E.Hauksson,金安蜀,等.松潘地震的震源机制及余震定位[A].松潘地震预报学术讨论会文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1976.
[16]力武常次[日]著.耿庆国译,卢振恒校.地震前兆现象[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.
[17]马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍,等.1966～1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[18]琼斯(L.M.Jones),韩渭宾,豪克森(E.Hauksson),等.1976年松潘地震的震源机制及余震定位[A].四川省地震局.松潘地震预报学术讨论会文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[19]钱复业,赵璧如,钱卫,等.汶川MS8.0地震的短临地电波动(潮汐力谐振和共振波)前兆[J].国际地震动态,2008,(7).
[20]晏锐.第6章地震前兆观测资料分析[A].中国地震局监测预报司编.汶川8.0级地震科学研究报告[C].北京:地震出版社,2009.
[21]张致伟,程万正,阮祥,吴朋.汶川8.0级地震前龙门山断裂带的地震活动性和构造应力场特征[J].地震学报,2009,31(2).
[22]朱皆佐.松潘与海城、龙陵、唐山等动物习性异常的对比研究[A].四川省地震局.松潘地震预报学术讨论会文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[23]朱皆佐.火球—松潘—平武地震的地光[J].地震战线,1978,(4).
[24]朱皆佐.宏观异常为什么几起几落[J].地震战线,1978,(4).
[25]Wallace,R.E.and T.L.Teng.Prediction of the Songpan-Pingwu Earthquakes[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am,1980,70(4).
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