近200年来全球地震活动与月相及地球自公转的关系分析
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摘要
对1811~2008年近200年来全球地震活动与月相、日地距离、地球自转速度这三个天文因素的统计分析表明,月相不论与全球地震还是全球大地震之间似乎无统计关系,全球地震的发生与日地距离似乎无统计关系。本文还进一步对全球M≥7.5的大地震进行了统计,结果表明M≥7.5的大地震与地球处于近日点似乎有一定的关系,但关系不太明显。全球除了8.0>M≥7.0的地震基本上符合发震的自然概率外,在M≥9.0、9.0>M≥8.0、6.0>M≥5.0、4.0>M≥3.0这些震级段地震发生的机率在地球自转减速期比较小,在地球自转加速期发生的机率比较大,似乎地球自转速度的变化对全球地震活动有一定的促发作用,但不明显。
The correlations among the lunar phase,the solar-terrestrial distance,the earth rotation and earthquakes in the whole world are analyzed.The results show that there is no relationship between the lunar phase,the solar-terrestrial distance and occurrence of earthquakes.The paper also analyzes the earthquakes(M≥7.5),and the results show that the earth is located in perihelion is probably a reason of triggering of earthquakes(M≥7.5),but the relation is not clear.Except for the global earthquakes(8.0>M≥7.0) are basically meeted the seismic shock of natural probability.The probability of occurrence of earthquakes(M≥9.0,9.0>M≥8.0,6.0>M≥5.0 and 4.0>M≥3.0)are small when the earth rotation slow down,the probability is big when the earth rotation accelerate,but it is not clear.It seems that earth rotation variation effect on earthquakes.As far as global average,the probability of occurrence of global earthquakes is small when the earth rotation slow down,the probability is big when the earth rotation accelerate,but it is not clear.
The correlations among the lunar phase,the solar-terrestrial distance,the earth rotation and earthquakes in the whole world are analyzed.The results show that there is no relationship between the lunar phase,the solar-terrestrial distance and occurrence of earthquakes.The paper also analyzes the earthquakes(M≥7.5),and the results show that the earth is located in perihelion is probably a reason of triggering of earthquakes(M≥7.5),but the relation is not clear.Except for the global earthquakes(8.0>M≥7.0) are basically meeted the seismic shock of natural probability.The probability of occurrence of earthquakes(M≥9.0,9.0>M≥8.0,6.0>M≥5.0 and 4.0>M≥3.0)are small when the earth rotation slow down,the probability is big when the earth rotation accelerate,but it is not clear.It seems that earth rotation variation effect on earthquakes.As far as global average,the probability of occurrence of global earthquakes is small when the earth rotation slow down,the probability is big when the earth rotation accelerate,but it is not clear.
引文
[1]赵娟,韩延本.天文因素与地震灾害关系研究的进展[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1 386~1 392.
[2]杜品仁,徐道一.天文地震学引论[M].北京:地震出版社,1989.1~240.
[3]高伟,刘蒲雄.地震与太阳、月亮位置的关系(二)[J].地震学报,1996,18(3):333~339.
[4]陈学忠,钟南才,丁鉴海.华北地区地震活动的月相效应及其预测意义[J].地震,1988,8(4):25~330.
[5]S impson J.F.Earthquake tides as a trigering m echa-n ism for earthquakes[J].Earth and P lanetary Sc ienceLetters,1967,2:473~478.
[6]Junzo Kasahara.Tides,earthquakes,and volcanoes[J].Sc ience.2002,297(5 580):348~349.
[7]沈宗丕,徐道一,张晓东,等.磁暴月相二倍法的计算发阵日期与全球Ms≥7.5大地震的对应关系[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(4):335~339.
[8]丁鉴海,黄雪香,戴淑玲.地震活动的月相效应[J].地震,1994,14(4):7~13.
[9]陈静生,汪晋三.地学基础[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.41.
[10]张晓东,张雅玲.天文环境因素对青海地震的影响[J].地震,1993,13(4):58~63.
[11]丁学文,高树义,耿伟,等.山西临汾盆地及邻区地震时空分布特征初探[J].山西地震,2005,(B09):5~6.
①美国地质勘探局(USGS).(http://earthquake.usgs.gov/)
①重庆地震局:天文潮汐不会触发地震,市民不要轻信.(来源:新华网)
②天文学家.没有证据显示汶川地震与天文因素有关.(来源:新华网)
③专家分析汶川地震可能与天文因素有关.(来源:人民网)
[2]杜品仁,徐道一.天文地震学引论[M].北京:地震出版社,1989.1~240.
[3]高伟,刘蒲雄.地震与太阳、月亮位置的关系(二)[J].地震学报,1996,18(3):333~339.
[4]陈学忠,钟南才,丁鉴海.华北地区地震活动的月相效应及其预测意义[J].地震,1988,8(4):25~330.
[5]S impson J.F.Earthquake tides as a trigering m echa-n ism for earthquakes[J].Earth and P lanetary Sc ienceLetters,1967,2:473~478.
[6]Junzo Kasahara.Tides,earthquakes,and volcanoes[J].Sc ience.2002,297(5 580):348~349.
[7]沈宗丕,徐道一,张晓东,等.磁暴月相二倍法的计算发阵日期与全球Ms≥7.5大地震的对应关系[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(4):335~339.
[8]丁鉴海,黄雪香,戴淑玲.地震活动的月相效应[J].地震,1994,14(4):7~13.
[9]陈静生,汪晋三.地学基础[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.41.
[10]张晓东,张雅玲.天文环境因素对青海地震的影响[J].地震,1993,13(4):58~63.
[11]丁学文,高树义,耿伟,等.山西临汾盆地及邻区地震时空分布特征初探[J].山西地震,2005,(B09):5~6.
①美国地质勘探局(USGS).(http://earthquake.usgs.gov/)
①重庆地震局:天文潮汐不会触发地震,市民不要轻信.(来源:新华网)
②天文学家.没有证据显示汶川地震与天文因素有关.(来源:新华网)
③专家分析汶川地震可能与天文因素有关.(来源:人民网)
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