基于改进P-S模型工程抢修抢建风险预警方法
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摘要
为适应风险预警"风险可能性低、安全满意度高"的心理特征与期望,提出了一种基于改进可能满意度的震后工程抢修抢建风险预警方法。在介绍可能满意度方法原理基础上,建立了震后工程抢修抢建风险预警模式,划分预警等级,确定多层次风险预警等级的可能度、满意度函数,分析风险可能度与满意度的互逆变化特征,确定风险预警可能满意度的并合形式化表达,运用数据包络分析方法改进风险预警的可能满意度模型,确定震后工程抢修抢建风险预警的相对可能满意度模型。模型应用于边坡工程抢修作业进程中整体安全风险预警案例,结果表明方法合理、可行,具有较好的预警能力。
To the mental characteristics about "Lower risk possibility,Higher safety satisfaction",a risk early-warning method was proposed to repair and construct operations for earthquake-damaged engineering with the improved P-S model.Based on the Possibility-satisfaction principle,the risk early-warning method was erected,with its early-warning grade plotted out,and its possibility function and satisfactory function presented in the corresponding early-warning layer.As opposite changing characteristic was analyzed in the possibility and satisfactory functions,the formal expression was given in the merging process of the early-warning possibility-satisfaction.Data envelopment analysis(DEA) improved the early-warning P-S model,and the relative early-warning possibility-satisfaction model was established to repair and construct operations for earthquake-damaged engineering.The model was applied into the whole risk early-warning case in the repairing process on rock slope,whose outcome indicated the rationality and feasibility,revealing its better early-warning ability.
To the mental characteristics about "Lower risk possibility,Higher safety satisfaction",a risk early-warning method was proposed to repair and construct operations for earthquake-damaged engineering with the improved P-S model.Based on the Possibility-satisfaction principle,the risk early-warning method was erected,with its early-warning grade plotted out,and its possibility function and satisfactory function presented in the corresponding early-warning layer.As opposite changing characteristic was analyzed in the possibility and satisfactory functions,the formal expression was given in the merging process of the early-warning possibility-satisfaction.Data envelopment analysis(DEA) improved the early-warning P-S model,and the relative early-warning possibility-satisfaction model was established to repair and construct operations for earthquake-damaged engineering.The model was applied into the whole risk early-warning case in the repairing process on rock slope,whose outcome indicated the rationality and feasibility,revealing its better early-warning ability.
引文
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[14]谈小龙,徐卫亚,梁桂兰.可拓方法在岩石边坡整体安全评价中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(12):2503-2509.TAN Xiao-long,XU Wei-ya,LIANG Gui-lan.Applica-tion of extenics method to comprehensive safety evalu-ation of rock slope[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Me-chanics and Engineering,2009,28(12):2503-2509.(inChinese).
[2]HUANG R Q,LI W L.Analysis of the geo-hazardstriggered by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake,China[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the En-vironment,2009,68(3):363-371.
[3]GREMINGER P.Managing the risks of natural haz-ards[C].Davos,Switzerland:3rd International Con-ference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation:Mechan-ics,Prediction,and Assessment,2003.
[4]LI C,PRETORIUS L,NEL A L.Systems engineer-ing and risk management:A case study[C].New-foundland:IEEE International Engineering Manage-ment Conference,2005.
[5]YANG Hong,ADLER R F.Towards an early-warn-ing system for global landslides triggered by rainfalland earthquake[J].International Journal of RemoteSensing,2007,28(16):3713-3719.
[6]HUANG R Q.Engineering geological evaluation of re-construction sites following the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environ-ment,2009,68(4):449-458.
[7]BINOD T,GYANU R,HIDEAKI G,et al.Potentialrisk of landslide damming during earthquakes[C].New Orleans:GeoCongress 2008:Geosustainabilityand Geohazard Mitigation,2005.
[8]汪应洛.系统工程理论、方法与应用[M].第2版.北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[9]张瀛,王浣尘.P-S辅助决策系统的开发与应用[J].系统工程理论方法与应用,2002,11(4):324-329.ZHANG Yin,WANG Huang-chen.Development andapplication of P-S aided decision system[J].SystemsEngineering Theory Methodology Applications,2002,11(4):324-329.(in Chinese).
[10]王浣尘.可行性研究与多目标决策[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1986.
[11]CHARNES A,COOPER W,RHODES E.Measuringthe efficiency of decision-making units[J].EuropeanJournal of Operational Research,1978,2(4):429-444.
[12]魏权龄.数据包络分析[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[13]WANG Ying-Ming,LUO Ying,LIANG Liang.Rank-ing decision making units by imposing a minimum re-striction in the data envelopment analysis[J].Journalof Computational and Applied Mathematics,2009,223(1):469-484.
[14]谈小龙,徐卫亚,梁桂兰.可拓方法在岩石边坡整体安全评价中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(12):2503-2509.TAN Xiao-long,XU Wei-ya,LIANG Gui-lan.Applica-tion of extenics method to comprehensive safety evalu-ation of rock slope[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Me-chanics and Engineering,2009,28(12):2503-2509.(inChinese).
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