试论矿难征兆学与预测预报
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摘要
为探讨矿难预测预报这一国际性难题,在系统地分析我国55 a来发生的煤矿矿难、地震、气象灾害等历史信息资料基础上,运用地壳运动效应、煤矿矿难机理和自然灾害征兆的基本理论,提出了矿难征兆学的概念,总结了我国煤矿矿难、地震和气象灾害发生的时、空特点,指出我国煤矿矿难、地震、气象灾害的发生在空间分布上具有一致性,在时间序列上具有相关性,但存在前移或滞后现象;最后提出了利用地震、气象灾害的征兆和效应信息进行煤矿矿难时、空域预测预报的可能.
In order to solve the forecast problems of the mine accidents in China,based on the analyses of the history information on the coal mine accidents,the earthquakes and weather-related disasters etc for 55 years,put forward to a concept of the sign of learning in the mine accident,and summarized the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of the coal mine accidents in China,the earthquakes and weather-related disasters etc.The results show that the coal mine accidents,earthquakes and weather-related disasters in China are of consistency in the space distribution,and are on the relevance but are of the features of forward or backward in the time sequence.Finally,the paper thinks that there is a forecast possibility for the mine accidents by using the signs of the earthquake and the meteorological disasters.
In order to solve the forecast problems of the mine accidents in China,based on the analyses of the history information on the coal mine accidents,the earthquakes and weather-related disasters etc for 55 years,put forward to a concept of the sign of learning in the mine accident,and summarized the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of the coal mine accidents in China,the earthquakes and weather-related disasters etc.The results show that the coal mine accidents,earthquakes and weather-related disasters in China are of consistency in the space distribution,and are on the relevance but are of the features of forward or backward in the time sequence.Finally,the paper thinks that there is a forecast possibility for the mine accidents by using the signs of the earthquake and the meteorological disasters.
引文
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[9]杨学峰.旱涝灾害与地震关系[J].信阳农业高等专科学校学报,2002,12(2):15-16.Yang Xuefeng.On the relationship between cathostrophe of drought and water logging and earthquake[J].Journal of XinyangAgricultural College,2002,12(2):15-16.
[10]高庆华.板块地质力学与地质系统论探讨[J].河北地质学报,1986(3/4):255-274.Gao Qinghua.Discussion on the plate geomechanics and geosystmatology[J].Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Econom-ics,1986(3/4):255-274.
[11]苏桂武,高庆华.自然灾害风险的行为主体特性与时间尺度问题[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):9-16.Su Guiwu,Gao Qinghua.Behavior subject-oriented qualities and time scale issues of natural disaster risk[J].Journal ofNatural Disasters,2003,12(1):9-16.
[2]陈波,郑文涛,梁汉东.地震活动与煤矿瓦斯溢出事故之间的影响关系[J].煤炭学报,2005,30(4):447-450.Chen Bo,Zheng Wentao,Liang Handong.Interaction of earthquake activity and gas accident in coal mining underground[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2005,30(4):447-450.
[3]郑文涛,汪涌,王璐.煤矿瓦斯灾害中地震活动因素探讨[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004,14(4):54-59.Zheng Wentao,Wang Yong,Wang Lu.The discussion about the earthquake factor in coal gas explosion disaster[J].TheChinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2004,14(4):54-59.
[4]徐好民.地象资料.征兆地质学.地震预报[M].北京:北京图书馆出版社,1998.Xu Haoming.Information of crustal phenomenon.signs of geology.earthquake prediction[M].Beijing:Beijing LibraryPress,1998.
[5]杨武洋,王文祥.预报煤矿井下地质灾害的新途径[J].采矿技术,2006,6(3):284-287.Yang Wuyang,Wang Wenxiang.The new ways of forecast coal mine geological disasters[J].Mining Technology,2006,6(3):284-287.
[6]张同乐,毕顺堂.新中国煤矿矿难事故高发期分析及对策研究[J].河北师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2006,29(1):5-11.Zhang Tongle,Bi Shuntang.Astrategic study of the three Chinese coal-mine calamity peaks[J].Journal of Hebei Normal U-niversity(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition),2006,29(1):5-11.
[7]杨学祥,陈殿友.构造形变、气象灾害与地球轨道的关系[J].地壳形变与地震,2000,20(8):39-48.Yang Xuexiang,Chen Dianyou.Relation of earth’s orbit to tectonic deformation and meteorological disaster[J].Crustal De-formation and Earthquake,2000,20(8):39-48.
[8]李治平,蔡美峰,李铁.矿山地震序列特征分析[J].北京科技大学学报,2001,23(6):495-498.Li Zhiping,Cai Meifeng,Li Tie.Analysis of mining tremors sequential feature[J].Journal of University of Science andTechnology Beijing,2001,23(6):495-498.
[9]杨学峰.旱涝灾害与地震关系[J].信阳农业高等专科学校学报,2002,12(2):15-16.Yang Xuefeng.On the relationship between cathostrophe of drought and water logging and earthquake[J].Journal of XinyangAgricultural College,2002,12(2):15-16.
[10]高庆华.板块地质力学与地质系统论探讨[J].河北地质学报,1986(3/4):255-274.Gao Qinghua.Discussion on the plate geomechanics and geosystmatology[J].Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Econom-ics,1986(3/4):255-274.
[11]苏桂武,高庆华.自然灾害风险的行为主体特性与时间尺度问题[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):9-16.Su Guiwu,Gao Qinghua.Behavior subject-oriented qualities and time scale issues of natural disaster risk[J].Journal ofNatural Disasters,2003,12(1):9-16.
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