核电厂应对自然灾害风险评估

英文篇名：Risk Assessment of Respond of Nuclear Power Plant to Natural Disasters
中文刊名：河南科学
英文刊名：Henan Science
作者：郭瑞萍 ; 张春明 ; 陈海英 ; 张琼 ; 杨春林
英文作者：Guo Ruiping1 ; Zhang Chunming1 ; Chen Haiying1 ; Zhang Qiong1 ; Yang Chunlin2(1.Nuclear and Radiation Safety Centre ; Beijing 100082 ; China ; 2.Henan Institute of Science and Technology ; Xinxiang 453003 ; Henan China)
中文关键词：自然灾害 ; 核设施 ; 地震 ; 概率模型
英文关键词：natural disaster ; nuclear facilities ; earthquake ; probability model
出版日期：2012-05-15
机构：环境保护部核与辐射安全中心;河南科技学院;
年：2012
期：05
出版单位：河南科学

摘要

核设施的自然灾害评估需要利用数学与统计工具来评估灾难发生的概率、数据质量、模型开发以及概率的不确定性.介绍核安全评价中自然灾害的风险评估情况,及其发生概率的定量描述.自然灾害所具有的短时间内定量指标异常变动的频率远超过历史记录小概率事件发生频率的特征,对环境产生较深远的不良影响.结合中国自然灾害特点指出这些因素在核设施安全评估和防护措施设计中应得到充分的重视.
The assessment about natural disaster of nuclear facility needs to evaluate the happened probability of disaster,the quality of data,model developing and the uncertainty of probability by using the mathematics and statistics tool.In this paper,the nuclear safety assessment of the natural disasters risk and the quantitative description of their occurrence probability is introduced.The natural disaster has the character that the frequency of the abnormal change of quantitative index in short time is far more than that of the small probability event recorded by history and has bad impact on environment for long time.These factors should be paid more attentions in the safety assessment and protection means.

引文

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