基于可靠度的边坡稳定性影响因素
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摘要
基于可靠度理论,用Janbu Simplified法、Ordinary法、Spencer法、Morgenstern-Price法和BishopSimplified法5种极限平衡方法对集安市某金矿矿区设计尾矿坝边坡可靠性做了分析,综合考虑影响计算边坡可靠性的各个因素,设计了蒙特卡洛法模拟次数分别为500、1 000、2 500、5 000、10 000和20 000等6种计算工况,岩土参数的概率分布函数为对数正态分布、正态分布、贝塔分布、三角形分布、均匀分布和指数分布6种情况,岩土参数的相关系数为-1.0～1.0按0.1等幅变化的21种情况,水平地震加速度为0～0.1 g按0.02 g等幅递增加载的5种情况,降雨量从10 mm/d到50 mm/d,5 mm/d等幅变化的9种情况。研究发现:参数服从不同概率分布函数下,在各个计算方法下得到的安全系数和破坏概率均具有显著的差异;岩土参数间的相关性对安全系数的影响较小,但对破坏概率的计算会产生较大的误差;地震加速度对计算结果的影响较大;随着降雨量的增大,安全系数曲线迅速降低,呈近线性递减,而破坏概率曲线先平缓后陡升,呈非线性关系。
Using reliability theory,the stability analysis of a designed gold mine tailings dam in Ji'an City is performed applying Ordinary,Bishop simplified,Janbu simplified,Spencer and Morgenstern-Price methods respectively.Synthetically considering various factors affecting the stability of slope,the analysis schemes are designed as follows: simulation times of Monte-Carlo simulation are 500,1 000,2 500,5 000,10 000,20 000;the probability distribution of parameter of rock and soil mass follow normal,beta,triangular,uniform and exponential;correlation coefficient between cohesion and friction angle raises from-1.0 to 1.0 in step of 0.1;horizontal seismic acceleration is loaded from 0 to 1.0 g with the interval of 0.02 g;and precipitation ascends from 10 mm/d to 50 mm/d by intervals of 5 mm/d.The results show that the values of safety factor of the slope and its failure probability are significant differenent when different probability distributions were adopted on parameters,the correlation of parameters influence the factor of safety relatively little while affect the probability of failure relatively obviously,the seismic acceleration influence the results of calculation strongly,and the factor of safety decrease linearly and rapidly with the increase of precipitation but the probability of safety increase in gentle-to-steep non-linear trend.
Using reliability theory,the stability analysis of a designed gold mine tailings dam in Ji'an City is performed applying Ordinary,Bishop simplified,Janbu simplified,Spencer and Morgenstern-Price methods respectively.Synthetically considering various factors affecting the stability of slope,the analysis schemes are designed as follows: simulation times of Monte-Carlo simulation are 500,1 000,2 500,5 000,10 000,20 000;the probability distribution of parameter of rock and soil mass follow normal,beta,triangular,uniform and exponential;correlation coefficient between cohesion and friction angle raises from-1.0 to 1.0 in step of 0.1;horizontal seismic acceleration is loaded from 0 to 1.0 g with the interval of 0.02 g;and precipitation ascends from 10 mm/d to 50 mm/d by intervals of 5 mm/d.The results show that the values of safety factor of the slope and its failure probability are significant differenent when different probability distributions were adopted on parameters,the correlation of parameters influence the factor of safety relatively little while affect the probability of failure relatively obviously,the seismic acceleration influence the results of calculation strongly,and the factor of safety decrease linearly and rapidly with the increase of precipitation but the probability of safety increase in gentle-to-steep non-linear trend.
引文
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[15]刘俊新,刘育田,胡启军.非饱和地表径流-渗流和流固体耦合条件下降雨入渗对路堤边坡稳定性研究[J].岩土力学,2010,31(3):903-910.LIU Jun-xin,LIU Yu-tian,HU Qi-jun.Stability of em-bankment slope subjected to rainfall infiltration conside-ring both runoff-underground seepage and fluid-solidcoupling[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2010,31(3):903-910.
[16]刘明维,何光春.基于蒙特卡罗法的土坡稳定可靠度分析[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2001,23(5):96-99.LIU Ming-wei,HE Guang-chun.Reliability analysis ofsoil slope stability based on Monte-Carlo method[J].Journal of Chongqing Jianzhu University,2001,23(5):96-99.
[17]许文达.基于蒙特卡洛-有限元法的边坡可靠度分析[J].福州大学学报:自然科学版,2004,32(1):73-77.XU Wen-da.Reliability analysis of slope based onMonte Carlo-finite element method[J].Journal ofFuzhou University:Natural Science,2004,32(1):73-77.
[18]谭晓慧,王建国,刘新荣,等.边坡稳定的有限元可靠度计算及敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(1):115-122.TAN Xiao-hui,WANG Jian-guo,LIU Xin-rong,et al.Finite element reliability computation and sensitivity a-nalysis of slope stability[J].Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2007,26(1):115-122.
[19]孙广忠.中国典型滑坡[M].北京:科学出版社,1998.SUN Guang-zhong.Typical landslide in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,1998.
[20]王彦.降雨入渗对边坡稳定性的影响[D].南京:河海大学,2001.WANG Yan.The influence of rain infiltration on theslope stability[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2001.
[21]Gardner W R.Mathematics of isothermal water conduc-tion in unsaturated soils[C]//Highway ResearchBoard Special Report 40 International Symposiums onPhysico-Chemical Phenomenon in Soils.Washington DC:[s.n.],1958:78-87.
[22]Fredlund D G,Rahardjo H.Soil mechanics for unsatu-rated soils[M].New York:John Wiley,1993.
[2]祝玉学.边坡可靠性分析[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,1993.ZHU Yu-xue.Reliability analysis of slope[M].Beijing:Metallurgical Industry Press,1993.
[3]罗文强,黄润秋.张倬元.斜坡稳定性概率分析的理论与应用[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,2003.LUO Wen-qiang,HUANG Run-qiu,ZHANG Zhuo-yuan.Theory and applications of probabilistic analysis of slopestability[M].Wuhan:China University of GeosciencesPress,2003.
[4]尹小涛,王水林.基于可靠度理论的滑坡稳定性及其影响因素分析[J].岩土力学,2008,29(6):1551-1556.YIN Xiao-tao,WANG Shui-lin.Stability and its influen-tial factors analysis of landslides based on reliability theo-ry[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(6):1551-1556.
[5]高大钊.土力学可靠性原理[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1989.GAO Da-zhao.Reliability principles of soil mechanics[M].Beijing:China Construction Industry Press,1989.
[6]Lumb P.Safety factors and the probability distribution ofsoil strength[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1970,7(3):225-242.
[7]Grivas D A.How reliable are the present slope failureprediction methods[C]//Proceedings of the Tenth Inter-national Conference of Soil Mechanics and FoundationEengineering.Sweden:Stockholm,1981:427-430.
[8]Wolff T F.Analysis and design of embankment damslopes:a probabilistic approach[D].West Lafayette:Purdue University,1985.
[9]Nguyen V U.Simulation for risk analysis with correlatedvariables[J].Geotechnique,1985,35(1),47-58.
[10]唐兴莉.土体物理力学参数及其关系的试验研究[J].重庆交通学院学报,2003,22(4):68-71.TANG Xing-li.The testing research on physical and me-chanics parameters of the loose earth and its relation-ships[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University,2003,22(4):68-71.
[11]郑德斌,龚平.土体抗剪强度指标相关性特征研究[J].中国水运,2008,8(1):59-61.ZHENG De-bin,GONG Ping.Research on correlativecharacteristics of soil strength indexes[J].China WaterTransport,2008,8(1):59-61.
[12]刘红帅,薄景山,刘德东.岩土边坡地震稳定性评价方法研究进展[J].防灾科技学院学报,2007,9(3):20-27.LIU Hong-shuai,BO Jing-shan,LIU De-dong.Deve-lopment on study of seismic stability evaluation methodsof rock-soil slopes[J].Journal of Institute of Disaster-Prevention Science and Technology,2007,9(3):20-27.
[13]刘金龙,栾茂田,王吉利,等.降雨条件下土坡饱和-非饱和渗流及稳定性分析[J].岩土力学,2006,27(增刊):103-107.LIU Jin-long,LUAN Mao-tian,WANG Ji-li,et al.Seepage and stability analysis of saturated-unsaturatedsoil slope under rainfall infiltration[J].Rock and SoilMechanics,2006,27(Sup.):103-107.
[14]樊有维,章羽,金雪莲,等.降雨对均质各向异性土质边坡稳定性的影响[J].岩土力学,2006,27(增刊):1097-1102.FAN You-wei,ZHANG Yu,JIN Xue-lian,et al.Effectof rainfall on stability of anisotropic soil slope[J].Rockand Soil Mechanics,2006,27(Sup.):1097-1102.
[15]刘俊新,刘育田,胡启军.非饱和地表径流-渗流和流固体耦合条件下降雨入渗对路堤边坡稳定性研究[J].岩土力学,2010,31(3):903-910.LIU Jun-xin,LIU Yu-tian,HU Qi-jun.Stability of em-bankment slope subjected to rainfall infiltration conside-ring both runoff-underground seepage and fluid-solidcoupling[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2010,31(3):903-910.
[16]刘明维,何光春.基于蒙特卡罗法的土坡稳定可靠度分析[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2001,23(5):96-99.LIU Ming-wei,HE Guang-chun.Reliability analysis ofsoil slope stability based on Monte-Carlo method[J].Journal of Chongqing Jianzhu University,2001,23(5):96-99.
[17]许文达.基于蒙特卡洛-有限元法的边坡可靠度分析[J].福州大学学报:自然科学版,2004,32(1):73-77.XU Wen-da.Reliability analysis of slope based onMonte Carlo-finite element method[J].Journal ofFuzhou University:Natural Science,2004,32(1):73-77.
[18]谭晓慧,王建国,刘新荣,等.边坡稳定的有限元可靠度计算及敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(1):115-122.TAN Xiao-hui,WANG Jian-guo,LIU Xin-rong,et al.Finite element reliability computation and sensitivity a-nalysis of slope stability[J].Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2007,26(1):115-122.
[19]孙广忠.中国典型滑坡[M].北京:科学出版社,1998.SUN Guang-zhong.Typical landslide in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,1998.
[20]王彦.降雨入渗对边坡稳定性的影响[D].南京:河海大学,2001.WANG Yan.The influence of rain infiltration on theslope stability[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2001.
[21]Gardner W R.Mathematics of isothermal water conduc-tion in unsaturated soils[C]//Highway ResearchBoard Special Report 40 International Symposiums onPhysico-Chemical Phenomenon in Soils.Washington DC:[s.n.],1958:78-87.
[22]Fredlund D G,Rahardjo H.Soil mechanics for unsatu-rated soils[M].New York:John Wiley,1993.
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