基于突变理论的城市配水系统脆弱性评价模型
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摘要
根据突发事件作用下城市配水系统供水功能的突变性特征,基于突变理论,提出一种新的配水系统脆弱性评价模型.以地震灾害为例,首先,根据地震作用下配水管网的破坏机理及历史震害资料,提出配水系统的脆弱性评价指标体系;然后,根据影响配水系统供水功能因素的主次关系,确定配水系统的状态函数及主次控制变量,建立配水系统功能转变的尖点突变模拟模型,并通过对该模型归一公式的导出及配水系统脆弱性分级标准、取值原则的确定,最终提出一种新的配水系统脆弱性评价数学模型.华北某区配水系统的实例应用表明,该模型具有理论与实际可行性,可为配水系统的安全设计提供决策依据。
According to the catastrophe characteristics of the water supply systems when it damaged by emergency,a new vulnerability assessment model was proposed based on catastrophe theory.Taking the earthquake disaster as an example,firstly,according to the damage mechanism of water supply systems under earthquake and the historical earthquake data,the vulnerability assessment indicators was established.Secondly,according to the relationship among the control factors of water supply systems' functions,the status function and control variables were determined.Thirdly,the cusp catastrophe mathematical model was established,and the normalized formula was derived and the vulnerability classification standard was determined.Then,based on the research results above,the new vulnerability assessment model of water supply systems was proposed.At last,the water supply system of north china was taking as a case study.Through application we could found that the model was theoretical and practical feasibility.It could be used to supply the decision support for the design of water supply systems.
According to the catastrophe characteristics of the water supply systems when it damaged by emergency,a new vulnerability assessment model was proposed based on catastrophe theory.Taking the earthquake disaster as an example,firstly,according to the damage mechanism of water supply systems under earthquake and the historical earthquake data,the vulnerability assessment indicators was established.Secondly,according to the relationship among the control factors of water supply systems' functions,the status function and control variables were determined.Thirdly,the cusp catastrophe mathematical model was established,and the normalized formula was derived and the vulnerability classification standard was determined.Then,based on the research results above,the new vulnerability assessment model of water supply systems was proposed.At last,the water supply system of north china was taking as a case study.Through application we could found that the model was theoretical and practical feasibility.It could be used to supply the decision support for the design of water supply systems.
引文
[1]陆仁强,牛志广,张宏伟.城市供水系统风险评价研究进展[J].给水排水,2010,36(增刊):4-8.
[2]LEE M,MCBEAN E A,GHAZALI M,et al.Fuzzy-log-ic modeling of risk assessment for a small drinking-watersupply system[J].Journal of Water Resources Plan-ning and Management,2009 135(6):547-552.
[3]OGAWA Y,KOIKE T.Structural design of buried pipe-lines for severe earthquakes[J].Soil Dynamics andEarthquake Engineering,2001,21(3):199-209.
[4]FORBES G J,HALL F L.The application of catastro-phe theory in modelling freeway traffic operations[J].Transportation Research Part A:General,1990,24(5):335-344.
[5]KNEMEYER A M,ZINN W,EROGLU C.Proactiveplanning for catastrophic events in supply chains[J].Journal of Operations Management,2009,27(2):141-153.
[6]YANG Kun,WANG Tongxu,MA Zhitao.Application ofcusp catastrophe theory to reliability analysis of slopes inopen-pit mines[J].Mining Science and Technology,2010,20(1):71-75.
[7]王绍伟,王永,钱正华,等.“5.12”地震灾区供水系统受损及恢复调研与分析[J].中国给水排水,2009,25(20):1-5.
[8]熊易华,罗万申,陈洵.汶川“5.12”地震给排水设施震损情况与启示[J].给水排水,2009,35(10):21-24.
[9]康宇虹,徐照宇.股票价格突变模型的建立与分析[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2007,12(1):100-104.
[10]BARUNIK J,VOSVRDA M.Can a stochastic cusp ca-tastrophe model explain stock market crashes[J].Jour-nal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2009,33(10):1824-1836.
[11]彭艳菊,唐荣余,吕悦军,等.天津滨海场地土类别特征及其对地震动的影响[J].地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(2):46-52.
[2]LEE M,MCBEAN E A,GHAZALI M,et al.Fuzzy-log-ic modeling of risk assessment for a small drinking-watersupply system[J].Journal of Water Resources Plan-ning and Management,2009 135(6):547-552.
[3]OGAWA Y,KOIKE T.Structural design of buried pipe-lines for severe earthquakes[J].Soil Dynamics andEarthquake Engineering,2001,21(3):199-209.
[4]FORBES G J,HALL F L.The application of catastro-phe theory in modelling freeway traffic operations[J].Transportation Research Part A:General,1990,24(5):335-344.
[5]KNEMEYER A M,ZINN W,EROGLU C.Proactiveplanning for catastrophic events in supply chains[J].Journal of Operations Management,2009,27(2):141-153.
[6]YANG Kun,WANG Tongxu,MA Zhitao.Application ofcusp catastrophe theory to reliability analysis of slopes inopen-pit mines[J].Mining Science and Technology,2010,20(1):71-75.
[7]王绍伟,王永,钱正华,等.“5.12”地震灾区供水系统受损及恢复调研与分析[J].中国给水排水,2009,25(20):1-5.
[8]熊易华,罗万申,陈洵.汶川“5.12”地震给排水设施震损情况与启示[J].给水排水,2009,35(10):21-24.
[9]康宇虹,徐照宇.股票价格突变模型的建立与分析[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2007,12(1):100-104.
[10]BARUNIK J,VOSVRDA M.Can a stochastic cusp ca-tastrophe model explain stock market crashes[J].Jour-nal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2009,33(10):1824-1836.
[11]彭艳菊,唐荣余,吕悦军,等.天津滨海场地土类别特征及其对地震动的影响[J].地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(2):46-52.
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