地震预警系统的发展、应用及启示
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摘要
从相关概念入手,引出地震预警,分析预测、预报、预警之间的概念差异,认为地震预警是地震已经发生后的及时警报,而不是地震还未发生前的预测或预报。地震预警的基本原理是波速差,当前国际上典型的地震预警系统,如墨西哥城地震预警系统SAS、日本地震早期预警系统EEW及铁路地震预警系统UrEDAS、美国加州地震预警系统ElarmS、中国台湾地震速报系统等,已经在防震减灾领域及重大工程(如水坝、核电站)中得到发展和应用。尽管如此,地震预警系统目前仍处于发展阶段,其本身还存在缺陷,如误报、迟报等,但是在实践中预警系统还是有很大的潜在效益,也有效地解决了一些问题。5·12汶川大地震之后,中国也已准备开始尝试建立类似的地震预警系统。依据地震预警系统的特点并结合中国的实际情况,从基础的断层研究、地震台网建设、信息如何发布等方面对地震预警系统建设的相关问题进行了思考。
Starting from related concepts,the authors pointed out differences between earthquake prediction,forecasting and early warning,furthermore,earthquake early warning is prompting alarm made after an earthquake instead of any prediction or forecasting made before.Theoretical principle of earthquake early warning is based on wave velocity difference,typical earthquake early warning systems such as Mexico City's Seismic Alarm System(SAS),Japan's Earthquake Early Warning System(EEW)and Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System(UrEDAS),California's Earthquake Alarm System(ElarmS),Taiwan's Earthquake Quick Reporting Sys-tem and so on,have been widely applied in earthquake prevention and disaster reduction,as well as for significant projects(such as dams,nuclear power plants).Despite of all,earthquake early warning system is still in its early stage,certain imperfections are unavoid-able such as false warning and delayed warning,whereas potential benefits remains in practical use and it has already effectively solved some problems.After the devastating 5·12 Wenchuan Earthquake,China is ready to set up similar earthquake early warning system.Based on its features and practical national situation,this paper has probed into construction issues from certain aspects including fundamental faulting research,seismic monitoring network as well as information publishing.
Starting from related concepts,the authors pointed out differences between earthquake prediction,forecasting and early warning,furthermore,earthquake early warning is prompting alarm made after an earthquake instead of any prediction or forecasting made before.Theoretical principle of earthquake early warning is based on wave velocity difference,typical earthquake early warning systems such as Mexico City's Seismic Alarm System(SAS),Japan's Earthquake Early Warning System(EEW)and Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System(UrEDAS),California's Earthquake Alarm System(ElarmS),Taiwan's Earthquake Quick Reporting Sys-tem and so on,have been widely applied in earthquake prevention and disaster reduction,as well as for significant projects(such as dams,nuclear power plants).Despite of all,earthquake early warning system is still in its early stage,certain imperfections are unavoid-able such as false warning and delayed warning,whereas potential benefits remains in practical use and it has already effectively solved some problems.After the devastating 5·12 Wenchuan Earthquake,China is ready to set up similar earthquake early warning system.Based on its features and practical national situation,this paper has probed into construction issues from certain aspects including fundamental faulting research,seismic monitoring network as well as information publishing.
引文
[1]杨马陵,沈繁銮,王正尚.预警等级预报——一种新的地震预报发布形式和对策的思考[J].国际地震动态,2004,8:1-12.
[2]袁志祥,单修政,徐世芳,等.地震预警技术综述[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(6):216-223.
[3]李山有,金星,马强,等.地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究[J].世界地震工程,2004,20(4):21-26.
[4]陈运泰.地震预测——进展、困难与前景[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(2):1-24.
[5]Mike Blanpied.Can we predict earthquakes?[EB/OL].Reston:2008,(2008-05-20)[2008-05-25].http://www.usgs.gov/corecast/details.asp?ID=76.
[6]Wyss M.Evaluation of proposed earthquake precursors[R].American Geophysics Union,Washington D C,1991:94.
[7]Cooper J D.Earthquake indicator[N].San Francisco Daily Evening Bulletin,1868-11-03.
[8]Heaton T H.A model for a seismic computerized alert network[J].Science,1985,228:987-990.
[9]Espinosa-Aranda J,Jiménez A,Ibarrola G,et al.Mexico city seismic alert system[J].Seismic Research Letter,1995,66:42-53.
[10]Japan Meteorological Agency.Earthquake early warning starting1October2007[EB/OL].Tokyo:2007,(2007-08-30)[2008-05-20].http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/eew.html.
[11]Nakamura Y.On-site alarm—the effective earthquake early warning[C].Fifth International Conference on Urban Earthquake Engineer-ing,Tokyo,Japan,2008.
[12]Richard Allen.Early warning system predicted shaking from Oct.30quake[EB/OL].Berkeley:2007,(2007-12-11)[2008-05-20].http://www.physorg.com/news116608100.html.
[13]Allen R,Kanamori H.The potential for earthquake early warning in South California[J].Science,2003,300:786-789.
[14]Wu Y M,Chung J K,Shin T C,et al.Development of an integrated earthquake early warning system in Taiwan—case for the Hualien area earthquakes[J].Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,1999,10:719-736.
[15]萧乃祺,辛在勤,吴逸民.地震速報與預警系統[C].台湾活动断层与地震灾害研讨会,2005:115-122.
[16]中村丰,许晏平.早期地震检测警报系统[J].国际地震动态,1993,8:35-37.
[17]Nakamura Y.On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system(UrEDAS)[C].Proceedings of the9th World Conference on Earth-quake Engineering,1988.
[18]Nakamura Y.UrEDAS,Urgent earthquake detection and alarm sys-tem,now and future[C].Proceedings of13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,2004.
[19]Japan Meteorological Agency.Limitations of the earthquake early warning[EB/OL].Tokyo:2007,(2007-08-30)[2008-05-20].http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/eew3.html.
[20]周彦文,刘希强,胡旭辉,等.早期地震预警方法研究现状及展望[J].国际地震动态,2008,4:28-34.
[21]夏玉胜,杨丽萍.地震预警系统及减灾效益研究[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(4):452-457.
[22]国务院办公厅.国家防震减灾规划(2006—2020年)[R].2007.
[23]Talbot D.China lacks earthquake early-warning system[EB/OL].Boston:2008,(2008-05-14)[2008-05-20].http://www.technolo-gyreview.com/Infotech/20772/page1/.
[24]孙巍.日本东北地区地震显示地震预报的难度[N].科学时报,2008-06-17.
[25]McCaffrey R.Global frequency of magnitude9earthquakes[J].Geol-ogy,2008,36:263-266.
[2]袁志祥,单修政,徐世芳,等.地震预警技术综述[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(6):216-223.
[3]李山有,金星,马强,等.地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究[J].世界地震工程,2004,20(4):21-26.
[4]陈运泰.地震预测——进展、困难与前景[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(2):1-24.
[5]Mike Blanpied.Can we predict earthquakes?[EB/OL].Reston:2008,(2008-05-20)[2008-05-25].http://www.usgs.gov/corecast/details.asp?ID=76.
[6]Wyss M.Evaluation of proposed earthquake precursors[R].American Geophysics Union,Washington D C,1991:94.
[7]Cooper J D.Earthquake indicator[N].San Francisco Daily Evening Bulletin,1868-11-03.
[8]Heaton T H.A model for a seismic computerized alert network[J].Science,1985,228:987-990.
[9]Espinosa-Aranda J,Jiménez A,Ibarrola G,et al.Mexico city seismic alert system[J].Seismic Research Letter,1995,66:42-53.
[10]Japan Meteorological Agency.Earthquake early warning starting1October2007[EB/OL].Tokyo:2007,(2007-08-30)[2008-05-20].http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/eew.html.
[11]Nakamura Y.On-site alarm—the effective earthquake early warning[C].Fifth International Conference on Urban Earthquake Engineer-ing,Tokyo,Japan,2008.
[12]Richard Allen.Early warning system predicted shaking from Oct.30quake[EB/OL].Berkeley:2007,(2007-12-11)[2008-05-20].http://www.physorg.com/news116608100.html.
[13]Allen R,Kanamori H.The potential for earthquake early warning in South California[J].Science,2003,300:786-789.
[14]Wu Y M,Chung J K,Shin T C,et al.Development of an integrated earthquake early warning system in Taiwan—case for the Hualien area earthquakes[J].Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,1999,10:719-736.
[15]萧乃祺,辛在勤,吴逸民.地震速報與預警系統[C].台湾活动断层与地震灾害研讨会,2005:115-122.
[16]中村丰,许晏平.早期地震检测警报系统[J].国际地震动态,1993,8:35-37.
[17]Nakamura Y.On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system(UrEDAS)[C].Proceedings of the9th World Conference on Earth-quake Engineering,1988.
[18]Nakamura Y.UrEDAS,Urgent earthquake detection and alarm sys-tem,now and future[C].Proceedings of13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,2004.
[19]Japan Meteorological Agency.Limitations of the earthquake early warning[EB/OL].Tokyo:2007,(2007-08-30)[2008-05-20].http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/eew3.html.
[20]周彦文,刘希强,胡旭辉,等.早期地震预警方法研究现状及展望[J].国际地震动态,2008,4:28-34.
[21]夏玉胜,杨丽萍.地震预警系统及减灾效益研究[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(4):452-457.
[22]国务院办公厅.国家防震减灾规划(2006—2020年)[R].2007.
[23]Talbot D.China lacks earthquake early-warning system[EB/OL].Boston:2008,(2008-05-14)[2008-05-20].http://www.technolo-gyreview.com/Infotech/20772/page1/.
[24]孙巍.日本东北地区地震显示地震预报的难度[N].科学时报,2008-06-17.
[25]McCaffrey R.Global frequency of magnitude9earthquakes[J].Geol-ogy,2008,36:263-266.
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