降水与地震关系的讨论
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摘要
引用地下流体异常的判定方法,即月均值滑动平均法和从属函数法,处理了北京丰台、山西定襄、河北昌黎3个地震台的降水资料。结果表明,在降水的原始曲线上,降水量异常显示比较模糊;而经过定量处理后,降水存在着明显的中期和中短期异常变化。降水异常与1976年唐山7.8级、1981年丰镇5.6级、1989年大同5.9级、1998年张北6.2级及2006年文安5.1级等多次地震的对应关系良好;与水位、水氡、地形变异常之间有着十分密切的呼应关系。降水异常与地震的关系可用"水诱发机理"来解释;降水异常属于外因性前兆,为非必震信号。降水异常与发震时间的关系密切,可用于地震的中短期预测,其预测期为4～14个月。
The atmospheric precipitation data of three seismic stations,Fengtai of Beijing,Dingxiang of Shanxi Province and Changli of Hebei Province,are studied using the moving average method for monthly means and the subordinate function method.The results indicate that there exist obvious medium-term and mid-short-term atmospheric precipitation precursory anomalies before the 1976 Tangshan MS 7.8 earthquake,the 1981 MS 5.6 Fengzhen earthquake,the 1989 Datong MS 5.9 earthquake,the 1998 Zhangbei MS 6.2 earthquake and the 2006 Wen'an MS 5.1 earthquake.Furthermore,these anomalies are well consistent with precursory anomalies of water level,water radon and ground deformation.The relationship between atmospheric precipitation anomaly and earthquake can be interpreted using the "the water trigger mechanism".The atmospheric precipitation anomalies are external cause and not essential signal of earthquake.The atmospheric precipitation anomalies are related to the occurrence time of earthquake and can be used for medium and short term prediction of earthquake,its predictive period is about 4～14months.It would be practicable and necessary to try out the atmospheric precipitation anomaly method for earthquake prediction.
The atmospheric precipitation data of three seismic stations,Fengtai of Beijing,Dingxiang of Shanxi Province and Changli of Hebei Province,are studied using the moving average method for monthly means and the subordinate function method.The results indicate that there exist obvious medium-term and mid-short-term atmospheric precipitation precursory anomalies before the 1976 Tangshan MS 7.8 earthquake,the 1981 MS 5.6 Fengzhen earthquake,the 1989 Datong MS 5.9 earthquake,the 1998 Zhangbei MS 6.2 earthquake and the 2006 Wen'an MS 5.1 earthquake.Furthermore,these anomalies are well consistent with precursory anomalies of water level,water radon and ground deformation.The relationship between atmospheric precipitation anomaly and earthquake can be interpreted using the "the water trigger mechanism".The atmospheric precipitation anomalies are external cause and not essential signal of earthquake.The atmospheric precipitation anomalies are related to the occurrence time of earthquake and can be used for medium and short term prediction of earthquake,its predictive period is about 4～14months.It would be practicable and necessary to try out the atmospheric precipitation anomaly method for earthquake prediction.
引文
①刘喜兰等,2003,华北地区地下流体短期异常判定和预测指标的研究报告。
范雪芳,王吉易,陆明勇.2009.汶川8.0级地震前典型流体中期前兆异常的初步研究[J].地震,29(1):136—144.FAN Xue-fang,WANG Ji-yi,LU Ming-yong.2009.Preliminary study on some typical medium-term subsurface fluid a-nomalies before theMS8.0Wenchuan earthquake[J].Earthquake,29(1):136—144(in Chinese).
范雪芳,刘耀炜,吴桂娥,等.2010.华北地区水位与水氡中期、中短期前兆异常特征研究[J].地震研究,33(2):31—42.FAN Xue-fang,LIU Yao-wei,WU Gui-e,et al.2010.Study on the characteristics of medium-term and medium-short-term precursor anomalies of water level and hydroradon in North China region[J].Journal of Seismological Re-search,33(2):31—42(in Chinese).
耿庆国.1985.中国旱震关系研究[M].北京:气象出版社.1—350.GENG Qing-guo.1985.Study on Relationship between Drought and Earthquake[M].China Meteorological Press,Bei-jing.1—350(in Chinese).
李海华,谢风兰.1982.大气降水对地震活动某种调制作用的初步讨论[A].见:国家地震局分析预报中心等编.地震统计预报论文集.北京:地震出版社.51—57.LI Hai-hua,XIE Feng-lan.1982.Preliminary discussion on modulating action of precipitation on seismicity[A].In:Center for Analysis and Prediction,SBC,et al(eds).Symposium of Statistical Prediction of Earthquake.Seismo-logical Press,Beijing.51—57(in Chinese).
平建军,王吉易,张子广,等.2004.华北地区地下流体中期和转折型短期异常成因分析[J].地震地质,26(2):355—363.PING Jian-jun,WANG Ji-yi,ZHANG Zi-guang,et al.2004.Analysis of the causes of medium-term and broken line-typeshort-term anomalies of underground fluid in North China[J].Seismology and Geology,26(2):355—363(inChinese).
王吉易,宋贯一,曹志成,等.2002.地下水诱发的浅层前兆异常及其机理与有关的地震预报问题(1)[J].华北地震科学,20(2):27—41.WANG Ji-yi,SONG Guan-yi,CAO Zhi-cheng,et al.2002.The mechanism of shallowlayers anomaly caused by ground-water and its related question in earthquake prediction(1)[J].North China Earthquake Science,20(2):27—41(in Chinese).
王吉易,贾炯,范雪芳,等.2008.水诱发异常机理与华北强震中短期预测新探索[A].见:中国地震局地震预测研究所等编.中国地震预报探索.北京:地震出版社.268—275.WANG Ji-yi,JIA Jiong,FAN Xue-fang,et al.2008.New exploration on water trigger mechanism and medium and shortterm prediction of strong earthquake in North China[A].In:Institute of Earthquake Science,CEA,et al(eds).Exploration on Chinese Earthquake Prediction.Seismological Press,Beijing.268—275(in Chinese).
杨明波,王吉易,刘喜兰,等.2006.北京及邻近地区中等以上地震地下流体异常识别与特征研究[J].地震,26(3):53—63.YANG Ming-bo,WANG Ji-yi,LIUXi-lan,et al.2006.Study on recognition of underground fluid anomaly and its charac-teristics for moderately strong earthquakes in Beijing region and its adjacent area[J].Earthquake,26(3):53—63(in Chinese).
张双凤,孙晴,张小涛.2009.邯郸地形变与地下水位正常和异常动态相互关系的研究[J].西北地震学报,31(4):367—373.ZHANG Shuang-feng,SUN Qing,ZHANG Xiao-tao.2009.Research on relationship between the ground deformation anddynamic groundwater level in Handan,Hebei[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,31(4):367—373(in Chi-nese).
赵洪声.1974.初探干旱与地震发生的关系[J].地球物理学报,17(4):199—230.ZHAO Hong-sheng.1974.Preliminary study on relationship between drought and seismicity[J].Chinese Journal of Ge-ophysics,17(4):199—230(in Chinese).
范雪芳,王吉易,陆明勇.2009.汶川8.0级地震前典型流体中期前兆异常的初步研究[J].地震,29(1):136—144.FAN Xue-fang,WANG Ji-yi,LU Ming-yong.2009.Preliminary study on some typical medium-term subsurface fluid a-nomalies before theMS8.0Wenchuan earthquake[J].Earthquake,29(1):136—144(in Chinese).
范雪芳,刘耀炜,吴桂娥,等.2010.华北地区水位与水氡中期、中短期前兆异常特征研究[J].地震研究,33(2):31—42.FAN Xue-fang,LIU Yao-wei,WU Gui-e,et al.2010.Study on the characteristics of medium-term and medium-short-term precursor anomalies of water level and hydroradon in North China region[J].Journal of Seismological Re-search,33(2):31—42(in Chinese).
耿庆国.1985.中国旱震关系研究[M].北京:气象出版社.1—350.GENG Qing-guo.1985.Study on Relationship between Drought and Earthquake[M].China Meteorological Press,Bei-jing.1—350(in Chinese).
李海华,谢风兰.1982.大气降水对地震活动某种调制作用的初步讨论[A].见:国家地震局分析预报中心等编.地震统计预报论文集.北京:地震出版社.51—57.LI Hai-hua,XIE Feng-lan.1982.Preliminary discussion on modulating action of precipitation on seismicity[A].In:Center for Analysis and Prediction,SBC,et al(eds).Symposium of Statistical Prediction of Earthquake.Seismo-logical Press,Beijing.51—57(in Chinese).
平建军,王吉易,张子广,等.2004.华北地区地下流体中期和转折型短期异常成因分析[J].地震地质,26(2):355—363.PING Jian-jun,WANG Ji-yi,ZHANG Zi-guang,et al.2004.Analysis of the causes of medium-term and broken line-typeshort-term anomalies of underground fluid in North China[J].Seismology and Geology,26(2):355—363(inChinese).
王吉易,宋贯一,曹志成,等.2002.地下水诱发的浅层前兆异常及其机理与有关的地震预报问题(1)[J].华北地震科学,20(2):27—41.WANG Ji-yi,SONG Guan-yi,CAO Zhi-cheng,et al.2002.The mechanism of shallowlayers anomaly caused by ground-water and its related question in earthquake prediction(1)[J].North China Earthquake Science,20(2):27—41(in Chinese).
王吉易,贾炯,范雪芳,等.2008.水诱发异常机理与华北强震中短期预测新探索[A].见:中国地震局地震预测研究所等编.中国地震预报探索.北京:地震出版社.268—275.WANG Ji-yi,JIA Jiong,FAN Xue-fang,et al.2008.New exploration on water trigger mechanism and medium and shortterm prediction of strong earthquake in North China[A].In:Institute of Earthquake Science,CEA,et al(eds).Exploration on Chinese Earthquake Prediction.Seismological Press,Beijing.268—275(in Chinese).
杨明波,王吉易,刘喜兰,等.2006.北京及邻近地区中等以上地震地下流体异常识别与特征研究[J].地震,26(3):53—63.YANG Ming-bo,WANG Ji-yi,LIUXi-lan,et al.2006.Study on recognition of underground fluid anomaly and its charac-teristics for moderately strong earthquakes in Beijing region and its adjacent area[J].Earthquake,26(3):53—63(in Chinese).
张双凤,孙晴,张小涛.2009.邯郸地形变与地下水位正常和异常动态相互关系的研究[J].西北地震学报,31(4):367—373.ZHANG Shuang-feng,SUN Qing,ZHANG Xiao-tao.2009.Research on relationship between the ground deformation anddynamic groundwater level in Handan,Hebei[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,31(4):367—373(in Chi-nese).
赵洪声.1974.初探干旱与地震发生的关系[J].地球物理学报,17(4):199—230.ZHAO Hong-sheng.1974.Preliminary study on relationship between drought and seismicity[J].Chinese Journal of Ge-ophysics,17(4):199—230(in Chinese).
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