地震临界区域尺度与地震预测
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摘要
地震临界区域尺度的界定对于地震前兆研究有着重要意义。通过加卸载响应比(LURR)及震前矩张量加速释放(AMR)两种模型对地震临界区域尺度进行了分析。采用不同半径区域内地震事件的Benioff应变分别计算LURR和AMR时间序列,震前引起时间序列异常变化最明显的半径尺度所定义的区域就是最佳地震临界区域。华北地区M>5震例研究结果显示两种模型所得到的最佳地震临界区域具有明显的一致性,最佳临界区域半径与主震震级之间统计的线性关系斜率约为0.34～0.36。研究结果表明通过不同预测模型可以较为定量的评价地震临界区域尺度,从而为地震预测研究提供依据。
The size selection of the critical seismogenic region prior to an earthquake has great influence on seismic hazard evaluation.By adopting an appropriate critical region,we can reduce the occurrence of false alarms and enhance the critical sensitivity of the precursory anomalies.In this study,we examine the optimal critical region scale using the load/unload response ratio(LURR)and accelerating moment release(AMR)methods.These two methods are intuitively reasonable.Prior to the occurrence of large or great earthquakes,the AMR phenomenon is usually observed.A simple power-law time-to-failure equation derived from damage mechanics can be used to model the observed seismicity.This hypothesis is an outgrowth of efforts to characterize large earthquakes as a critical phenomenon.The LURR is a short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction method based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading,corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults.Prior to the occurrence of large earthquakes(M >6.0),anomalous increases in the time series of LURR within a time frame of months to years has often been observed. A circular region is usually adopted as the spatial window in the LURR and AMR practices, allowing us to link these two unrelated subjects to investigate the optimal critical region prior to a large earthquake.In this study,the optimal critical region scale for LURR evaluation is determined by computing the anomaly within various-sized regions centered at the epicenter of the incoming large event to reach the maximum LURR precursory anomalies.For the AMR method, the calculation of the optimal critical region includes the following steps:The Benioff strain of earthquakes within each circular region is fitted to a power-law time-to-failure function and to a straight line;we then compute a curvature parameter as the ratio of the residuals to the powerlaw fit to the residuals of the linear fit;and the critically seismogenic region is finally defined as the circular region that minimizes the curvature parameter.Retrospective testing on 36 M > 5 earthquakes occurring in North China during the last 40years show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies with the optimal critical regions.From these statistics,we found that the optimal critical regions derived from both methods are consistent with each other:The slopes of the linear relationship between the radii of the optimal critical regions and the magnitude of the detection earthquakes for LURR and AMR are 0.34 and 0.36,respectively.The results show that by combining different earthquake prediction methods,we can quantitatively assess critical seismogenic region scale and therefore provide information and constrains about the approaching criticality of the system.
The size selection of the critical seismogenic region prior to an earthquake has great influence on seismic hazard evaluation.By adopting an appropriate critical region,we can reduce the occurrence of false alarms and enhance the critical sensitivity of the precursory anomalies.In this study,we examine the optimal critical region scale using the load/unload response ratio(LURR)and accelerating moment release(AMR)methods.These two methods are intuitively reasonable.Prior to the occurrence of large or great earthquakes,the AMR phenomenon is usually observed.A simple power-law time-to-failure equation derived from damage mechanics can be used to model the observed seismicity.This hypothesis is an outgrowth of efforts to characterize large earthquakes as a critical phenomenon.The LURR is a short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction method based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading,corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults.Prior to the occurrence of large earthquakes(M >6.0),anomalous increases in the time series of LURR within a time frame of months to years has often been observed. A circular region is usually adopted as the spatial window in the LURR and AMR practices, allowing us to link these two unrelated subjects to investigate the optimal critical region prior to a large earthquake.In this study,the optimal critical region scale for LURR evaluation is determined by computing the anomaly within various-sized regions centered at the epicenter of the incoming large event to reach the maximum LURR precursory anomalies.For the AMR method, the calculation of the optimal critical region includes the following steps:The Benioff strain of earthquakes within each circular region is fitted to a power-law time-to-failure function and to a straight line;we then compute a curvature parameter as the ratio of the residuals to the powerlaw fit to the residuals of the linear fit;and the critically seismogenic region is finally defined as the circular region that minimizes the curvature parameter.Retrospective testing on 36 M > 5 earthquakes occurring in North China during the last 40years show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies with the optimal critical regions.From these statistics,we found that the optimal critical regions derived from both methods are consistent with each other:The slopes of the linear relationship between the radii of the optimal critical regions and the magnitude of the detection earthquakes for LURR and AMR are 0.34 and 0.36,respectively.The results show that by combining different earthquake prediction methods,we can quantitatively assess critical seismogenic region scale and therefore provide information and constrains about the approaching criticality of the system.
引文
[1]董蕾,杨立明.汶川大震前数字地震仪位移地脉动低频异常现象研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):268-273.Dong L,Yang L M.Research on Low-frequency Anomalies of Microtremor Displacement Recorded by Digital Seismigraph before the Whenchuan Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(3):268-273.(in Chinese)
[2]余怀忠,程佳,张小涛,等.多方法联合分析未来地震发生趋势[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):1-9.Yu H Z,Chen J,Zhang X T.Multi-method Linked to Study Future Seismic Tendency[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):1-9.(in Chinese)
[3]Sykes L R,Nishenko S P.Probabilities of Occurrence of Large plate Rupturing Earthquakes for the San Andeas,San Jacinto,and Imperial Faults[J].J.G.R,1984,89:5905-5927.
[4]K Mogi.Study of Elastcs Shocks Caused by the Fracture of Heterogeneous Materials and its Relation to Earthquake Phenomena[J].Bulletin of Earthquake Research Institute,1962,40:125.
[5]Kelleher J,Savino J.Distribution of Seismicity before Large Strike-slip and Thrust-type Earthquakes[J].J.G.R,1975,80:260-271
[6]Ellsworth W L,Lindh A G.,Prescott W H,et al.The 1906San Francisco Earthquake and the Seismic Cycle,in Earthquake Prediction:An International Review.Eds.Simpson,D.W.,and Rechard[M].Washington,D.C.:P.G.,AGU,1981:126-140
[7]Ben-Zion Y,Sammis C G.Characterization of Fault Zones[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2003,160:677-715.
[8]Ben-Zion Y,Lyakhovsky V.Accelerated Seismic Release and Related Aspects of Seismicty Patterns on Earthquake Faults[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2385-2412.
[9]Romachkova L L,Kossobokov V G,Panza G F,et al.Intermediate-term Predictions of Earthquakes in Italy,Algorithm M8[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1998,152:37-55.
[10]Keilis-Borok V I,Shebalin P N.Special Issue-Dynamics of Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction[J].Phys.Earth.Planet.Inter.,1999,111:179-327.
[11]Keilis-Borok V I,Ismail-Zadeh A,Kossobekov V,et al.Non-linear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Intermediateterm Earthquake Prediction[J].Tectonophysics,2001,338:247-260.
[12]刘蒲雄.大震前地震活动性的增强特征[J].地震,1982,2:255-262.Liu P X.The Enhancement Features of Seismic Activity before Large Earthquakes[J].Earthquake,1982,2:255-262.(in Chinese)
[13]Keilis-Borok V I,Soloviev A A.Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction[J].Springer-Verlag,Heidelberg,2003,355:136-149.
[14]Press F,Allen C.Pattern of Seismic Release in the Southern California Region[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1995,100:6421-6430.
[15]Bowman D D,Ouillon G,Sammis C G,et al.An Observation Test of the Critical Earthquake Concept[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103,24:359-372.
[16]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction-The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure Appl.Geophys,1995,145:701-715.
[17]Yin X C,Wang Y C,Peng K Y,et al.Development of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction-Load/unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:2365-2383.
[18]Rundle J B,lein W,Tiampo K,et al.Linear pattern Dynamics in Nonlinear Threshold Systems[J].Phys.Rev.,2000,E61:2418-2431.
[19]Rundle J B,D L Turcotte,R Shcherbakov,et al.Statistical Physics Approach to Understanding the Multiscale Dynamics of Earthquake Fault Systems[J].Rev.Geophys.,2003.41(4):1019,doi:10.1029/2003RG000135.
[20]Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,McGinnis S A,et al.Pattern Dynamics and Forecast Methods in Seismically Active Regions[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2002,159(10):2429-2467.
[21]Bowman D D,King G C P.Accelerating Seismicity and Stress Accumulation before Large Earthquakes[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2001,28(21):4039-4042.
[22]King G C P,Cocco M.Fault Interaction by Elastic Stress Changes:New Clues from Earthquake Sequences[J].Adv.Geophys.,2001,44:1-38.
[23]Yu H Z,Shen Z K,Zhu Q Y,et al.Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Accumulation Pattern[J].Tectonophysics,2006,428(1-4):87-94.
[24]Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2511-2523.
[25]Yin X C,Yu H Z,Kukshenko V,et al.Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR),Accelerating Energy release(AER)and State Vector Evolution as Precursors to Failure of Rock Specimens[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2004,161:2405-2436.
[26]Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang H H,et al.LURR's Twenty Years and Its Perspective[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2006,163:2317-2341.
[27]陈棋福,尹祥础,马丽.加卸载响应比的自然概率分布[J].中国地震,1996,12(3):270-273.Chen Q F,Yin X C,Ma L.The Natural Probability Distribution of Load/unload Response Ratio[J].Chinese Earthquake Research,1996,12(3):270-273.(in Chinese)
[28]李佐唐.门源6.4级地前后加卸载响应比的异常变化[J].西北地震学报,1997,18(4):47-50.Li Z T.Abnormal variation of the Load/unload Response Ratio before and after the Menyuan MS6.4 Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1997,18(4):47-50.(in Chinese)
[29]张昭栋,王秀芹,董守德.加卸载响应比在体应变固体潮中的应用[J].地震,1999,19(3):217-222.Zhang S D,Wang X Q,Dong S D.Application of response ratio of Load and unload to Bulk strain earthtide[J].Earthquake,1999,19(3):217-222.(in Chinese)
[30]常克贵,高立新,张建业,等.加卸载响应比理论在包头西MS6.4地震预报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1999,21(4):350-355.Chang K,G,Gao L X,Zhang J Y.Application of the Loadunload Response Ratio Theory to Prediction the Baotou MS6.4 Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1999,21(4):350-55.(in Chinese)
[31]任隽,陈运平,潘纪顺,等.海南岛及其近海中强地震前加卸载响应比的变化特征[J].西北地震学报,2002,27(1):71-4.Ren J,Chen Y P,Pan J S,et al.Variational Characteristics of Load/Unload Response Ratio in Hainan Island and Its Adjacent Area before Moderate-strong Earthquakes[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2002,27(1):71-4.(in Chinese)
[32]Cochran E S,Vidale J E,Tanaka S.Earthquake Tides can Trigger Shallow Thrust Fault Earthquakes[J].Science,2004,306:164-166.
[33]Tanaka S,Ohtake M,Sato H.Tidal triggering of Earthquakes in Japan Related to the Regional Tectonic Stress[J].Earth Planets Space,2004,56(5):511-515.
[34]Jaume S C,Sykes L R.Evolution toward A Critical Point:A Review of Accelerating Seismic Moment/energy Release Prior to Large Great Earthquakes[J].Pure.Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:279-06.
[35]Bufe C G,D J Varnes.Predictive Modelling of the Seismic Cycle of the Greater San Francisco Bay Region[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9871-883.
[36]Sammis C G,Smith S W.Seismic Cycles and the Evolution of stess Correlation in Cellular Automation Models of Finite Fault Networks[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:307-34.
[37]Reasenberg P A.Second-order Moment of Central California Seismicity 1969-1982[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1985,90:5479-495.
[38]Keilis-Borok V I,L Knopoff.Bursts of Aftershock of Strong Earthquakes[J].Nature,1980,283(P5744):259-63.
[39]陈凌,刘杰,陈顒,等.地震活动性分析中余震的删除[J].地球物理学报,1998,41(增刊):244-52.CHEN L,LIU J,CHEN Y,et al.Aftershock Deletion in Seismicity Analysis[J].Chinese J.Geophys.,1998,41(S1):244-52.(in Chinese)
[40]Turcotte D L,W I,Newman,R Shcherbakov.Micro-and Macro-copic Models of Rock Fracture[J].Geophys.J.Int.,2002,152:718-28.
[41]Sornette D,C G Sammis.Complex Critical Exponents from Renormalization Group Theory of Earthquakes:Implications for Earthquake Predictions[J].J.Phys.I.,1995,5:607-619.
[2]余怀忠,程佳,张小涛,等.多方法联合分析未来地震发生趋势[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):1-9.Yu H Z,Chen J,Zhang X T.Multi-method Linked to Study Future Seismic Tendency[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):1-9.(in Chinese)
[3]Sykes L R,Nishenko S P.Probabilities of Occurrence of Large plate Rupturing Earthquakes for the San Andeas,San Jacinto,and Imperial Faults[J].J.G.R,1984,89:5905-5927.
[4]K Mogi.Study of Elastcs Shocks Caused by the Fracture of Heterogeneous Materials and its Relation to Earthquake Phenomena[J].Bulletin of Earthquake Research Institute,1962,40:125.
[5]Kelleher J,Savino J.Distribution of Seismicity before Large Strike-slip and Thrust-type Earthquakes[J].J.G.R,1975,80:260-271
[6]Ellsworth W L,Lindh A G.,Prescott W H,et al.The 1906San Francisco Earthquake and the Seismic Cycle,in Earthquake Prediction:An International Review.Eds.Simpson,D.W.,and Rechard[M].Washington,D.C.:P.G.,AGU,1981:126-140
[7]Ben-Zion Y,Sammis C G.Characterization of Fault Zones[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2003,160:677-715.
[8]Ben-Zion Y,Lyakhovsky V.Accelerated Seismic Release and Related Aspects of Seismicty Patterns on Earthquake Faults[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2385-2412.
[9]Romachkova L L,Kossobokov V G,Panza G F,et al.Intermediate-term Predictions of Earthquakes in Italy,Algorithm M8[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1998,152:37-55.
[10]Keilis-Borok V I,Shebalin P N.Special Issue-Dynamics of Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction[J].Phys.Earth.Planet.Inter.,1999,111:179-327.
[11]Keilis-Borok V I,Ismail-Zadeh A,Kossobekov V,et al.Non-linear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Intermediateterm Earthquake Prediction[J].Tectonophysics,2001,338:247-260.
[12]刘蒲雄.大震前地震活动性的增强特征[J].地震,1982,2:255-262.Liu P X.The Enhancement Features of Seismic Activity before Large Earthquakes[J].Earthquake,1982,2:255-262.(in Chinese)
[13]Keilis-Borok V I,Soloviev A A.Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction[J].Springer-Verlag,Heidelberg,2003,355:136-149.
[14]Press F,Allen C.Pattern of Seismic Release in the Southern California Region[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1995,100:6421-6430.
[15]Bowman D D,Ouillon G,Sammis C G,et al.An Observation Test of the Critical Earthquake Concept[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103,24:359-372.
[16]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction-The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure Appl.Geophys,1995,145:701-715.
[17]Yin X C,Wang Y C,Peng K Y,et al.Development of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction-Load/unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:2365-2383.
[18]Rundle J B,lein W,Tiampo K,et al.Linear pattern Dynamics in Nonlinear Threshold Systems[J].Phys.Rev.,2000,E61:2418-2431.
[19]Rundle J B,D L Turcotte,R Shcherbakov,et al.Statistical Physics Approach to Understanding the Multiscale Dynamics of Earthquake Fault Systems[J].Rev.Geophys.,2003.41(4):1019,doi:10.1029/2003RG000135.
[20]Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,McGinnis S A,et al.Pattern Dynamics and Forecast Methods in Seismically Active Regions[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2002,159(10):2429-2467.
[21]Bowman D D,King G C P.Accelerating Seismicity and Stress Accumulation before Large Earthquakes[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2001,28(21):4039-4042.
[22]King G C P,Cocco M.Fault Interaction by Elastic Stress Changes:New Clues from Earthquake Sequences[J].Adv.Geophys.,2001,44:1-38.
[23]Yu H Z,Shen Z K,Zhu Q Y,et al.Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Accumulation Pattern[J].Tectonophysics,2006,428(1-4):87-94.
[24]Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2511-2523.
[25]Yin X C,Yu H Z,Kukshenko V,et al.Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR),Accelerating Energy release(AER)and State Vector Evolution as Precursors to Failure of Rock Specimens[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2004,161:2405-2436.
[26]Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang H H,et al.LURR's Twenty Years and Its Perspective[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2006,163:2317-2341.
[27]陈棋福,尹祥础,马丽.加卸载响应比的自然概率分布[J].中国地震,1996,12(3):270-273.Chen Q F,Yin X C,Ma L.The Natural Probability Distribution of Load/unload Response Ratio[J].Chinese Earthquake Research,1996,12(3):270-273.(in Chinese)
[28]李佐唐.门源6.4级地前后加卸载响应比的异常变化[J].西北地震学报,1997,18(4):47-50.Li Z T.Abnormal variation of the Load/unload Response Ratio before and after the Menyuan MS6.4 Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1997,18(4):47-50.(in Chinese)
[29]张昭栋,王秀芹,董守德.加卸载响应比在体应变固体潮中的应用[J].地震,1999,19(3):217-222.Zhang S D,Wang X Q,Dong S D.Application of response ratio of Load and unload to Bulk strain earthtide[J].Earthquake,1999,19(3):217-222.(in Chinese)
[30]常克贵,高立新,张建业,等.加卸载响应比理论在包头西MS6.4地震预报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1999,21(4):350-355.Chang K,G,Gao L X,Zhang J Y.Application of the Loadunload Response Ratio Theory to Prediction the Baotou MS6.4 Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1999,21(4):350-55.(in Chinese)
[31]任隽,陈运平,潘纪顺,等.海南岛及其近海中强地震前加卸载响应比的变化特征[J].西北地震学报,2002,27(1):71-4.Ren J,Chen Y P,Pan J S,et al.Variational Characteristics of Load/Unload Response Ratio in Hainan Island and Its Adjacent Area before Moderate-strong Earthquakes[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2002,27(1):71-4.(in Chinese)
[32]Cochran E S,Vidale J E,Tanaka S.Earthquake Tides can Trigger Shallow Thrust Fault Earthquakes[J].Science,2004,306:164-166.
[33]Tanaka S,Ohtake M,Sato H.Tidal triggering of Earthquakes in Japan Related to the Regional Tectonic Stress[J].Earth Planets Space,2004,56(5):511-515.
[34]Jaume S C,Sykes L R.Evolution toward A Critical Point:A Review of Accelerating Seismic Moment/energy Release Prior to Large Great Earthquakes[J].Pure.Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:279-06.
[35]Bufe C G,D J Varnes.Predictive Modelling of the Seismic Cycle of the Greater San Francisco Bay Region[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9871-883.
[36]Sammis C G,Smith S W.Seismic Cycles and the Evolution of stess Correlation in Cellular Automation Models of Finite Fault Networks[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:307-34.
[37]Reasenberg P A.Second-order Moment of Central California Seismicity 1969-1982[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1985,90:5479-495.
[38]Keilis-Borok V I,L Knopoff.Bursts of Aftershock of Strong Earthquakes[J].Nature,1980,283(P5744):259-63.
[39]陈凌,刘杰,陈顒,等.地震活动性分析中余震的删除[J].地球物理学报,1998,41(增刊):244-52.CHEN L,LIU J,CHEN Y,et al.Aftershock Deletion in Seismicity Analysis[J].Chinese J.Geophys.,1998,41(S1):244-52.(in Chinese)
[40]Turcotte D L,W I,Newman,R Shcherbakov.Micro-and Macro-copic Models of Rock Fracture[J].Geophys.J.Int.,2002,152:718-28.
[41]Sornette D,C G Sammis.Complex Critical Exponents from Renormalization Group Theory of Earthquakes:Implications for Earthquake Predictions[J].J.Phys.I.,1995,5:607-619.
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