南北地震带北段强震破裂空段的地震危险性研究
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摘要
综合活动构造与重要活动断裂带的历史及现今强震震源区或破裂分布等资料,南北地震带北段存在长期缺少MS≥7.0地震的破裂空段.为了考察这些空段的地震危险性,首先采用Burgers体黏弹介质模型,计算周围有记载以来的历史强震在空段引起的库仑应力动态演化;其次结合背景地震发生率,采用Dieterich模型分析历史强震对空段地震活动的影响,讨论了空段所在区域的地震发生概率.结果显示,南北地震带北段强震破裂空段的地震危险性程度自高到低依次是:东昆仑活动断裂带东段的若尔盖—九寨沟段、六盘山断裂带中南段空段、香山—天景山段裂中南段同心空段、天祝—大靖空段、西秦岭北缘断裂带中西段、西秦岭北缘断裂带东段.该结果可为南北地震带北段的地震危险性估计提供参考.
In the northern segment of the North--South seismic zone there are unbroken active faults,on which no M S ≥7.0earthquakes have occurred for a long time.These faults can be identified by jointly investigating active tectonics and faulting pattern of strong earthquakes in this region.A viscoelastic stress model is used to estimate the potential earthquake risk on these unbroken activefaults.This model could aptly describe transient coseismic elastic response and short-term postseismic exponential strain relaxation.Based on the evolution model of Coulomb failure stress,the spatial pattern of seismicity following the Dieterich rate-and state-dependent constitutive law was calculated.The result of earthquake damage probability estimation indicates that the regions having the risk level from high to low are sequentially the Ruoergai--Jiuzhaigou region of east Kunlun fault,middle and southern Liupanshan fault,Tongxin region of middle and southern Xiangshan--Tianjingshan fault,Tianzhu--Dajing region,middle and west segments of western Qinling Mountain fault and east segment of western Qinling Mountain fault.
In the northern segment of the North--South seismic zone there are unbroken active faults,on which no M S ≥7.0earthquakes have occurred for a long time.These faults can be identified by jointly investigating active tectonics and faulting pattern of strong earthquakes in this region.A viscoelastic stress model is used to estimate the potential earthquake risk on these unbroken activefaults.This model could aptly describe transient coseismic elastic response and short-term postseismic exponential strain relaxation.Based on the evolution model of Coulomb failure stress,the spatial pattern of seismicity following the Dieterich rate-and state-dependent constitutive law was calculated.The result of earthquake damage probability estimation indicates that the regions having the risk level from high to low are sequentially the Ruoergai--Jiuzhaigou region of east Kunlun fault,middle and southern Liupanshan fault,Tongxin region of middle and southern Xiangshan--Tianjingshan fault,Tianzhu--Dajing region,middle and west segments of western Qinling Mountain fault and east segment of western Qinling Mountain fault.
引文
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邵志刚,傅容珊,薛霆虓,黄建华.2008a.昆仑山MS8.1级地震震后变形场数值模拟与成因机理探讨[J].地球物理学报,51(3):805--816.
邵志刚,傅容珊,薛霆虓,查显杰.2008b.震后短期和长期形变模拟:以1960年智利MW9.5地震为例[J].地震学报,30(4):405--415.
邵志刚,周龙泉,蒋长胜,马宏生,张浪平.2010.2008年汶川MS8.0地震对周边断层地震活动的影响[J].地球物理学报,53(8):1784--1795.
沈正康,万永革,甘卫军,曾跃华,任群.2003.东昆仑活动断裂带大地震之间的黏弹性应力触发研究[J].地球物理学报,46(6):786--795.
万永革,沈正康,盛书中,徐晓枫.2009.2008年汶川大地震对周围断层的影响[J].地震学报,31(2):128--139.
汪一鹏,马瑾,李传友.2007.南北地震带强震迁移特征及其与南亚地震带的联系[J].地震地质,29(1):1--14.
汪一鹏,宋方敏,李志义,尤惠川,安平.1990.宁夏香山—天景山断裂带晚第四纪强震重复间隔的研究[J].中国地震,6(2):15--24.
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闻学泽,范军,易桂喜,邓一唯,龙锋.2008.川西安宁河断裂上的地震空区[J].中国科学:D辑,38(5):797--807.
闻学泽,张培震,杜方,龙锋.2009.2008年汶川8.0级地震发生的历史与现今地震活动背景[J].地球物理学报,52(2):444--454.
袁道阳,雷中生,张俊玲,刘百篪,梁明剑.2008.1219年固原地震考证与发震构造探讨[J].地震学报,30(6):648--657.
袁道阳,雷中生,葛伟鹏,刘兴旺,刘百篪,张俊玲.2007a.对143年甘谷西7级地震史料的新见解[J].西北地震学报,29(1):58--63.
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