砂土地震液化的模糊概率评判方法
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摘要
利用模糊数学中的模糊概率理论,建立了砂土地震液化的模糊概率综合评判模型。在此模型中,提出了模糊权重的概念,可充分考虑权重的模糊性,从而避免权重取值带来的不确定性。结合砂土地震液化特点,选取地震烈度、标准贯入击数、平均粒径和上覆有效压力作为主要评价影响因子,同时将液化程度划分为不液化、轻微液化、中等液化和严重液化4个等级,进而使其评判结果更为精细化。通过算例分析,表明文中方法对砂土液化评判的合理性与有效性。
According to the fuzzy probability theory in fuzzy mathematics,a comprehensive fuzzy probability evaluation model of sand soil liquefaction is presented.In order to consider the fuzziness of weight factor,the fuzzy weighted value is suggested to avoid the uncertainties while determining the weight factor.The following factors such as earthquake intensity,standard penetration number,mean diameter and effective over burden pressure are selected as the evaluating indices;and liquefaction grades are classified as the non-liquefaction,slight liquefaction,medium liquefaction and serious liquefaction in the evaluating model;so the evaluation results can be more precise.The theoretical model is successful applied to evaluating liquefaction of sand soils in practical engineering;and the rationality and effectiveness of the method proposed is demonstrated through 22 examples.
According to the fuzzy probability theory in fuzzy mathematics,a comprehensive fuzzy probability evaluation model of sand soil liquefaction is presented.In order to consider the fuzziness of weight factor,the fuzzy weighted value is suggested to avoid the uncertainties while determining the weight factor.The following factors such as earthquake intensity,standard penetration number,mean diameter and effective over burden pressure are selected as the evaluating indices;and liquefaction grades are classified as the non-liquefaction,slight liquefaction,medium liquefaction and serious liquefaction in the evaluating model;so the evaluation results can be more precise.The theoretical model is successful applied to evaluating liquefaction of sand soils in practical engineering;and the rationality and effectiveness of the method proposed is demonstrated through 22 examples.
引文
[1]陈奎,刘兴昌.砂土地震液化的神经网络预测[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(2):167-171.CHEN Kui,LIU Xing-chang.Prediction of sand soil liquefaction during earthquakes by the BP neural network[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2000,22(2):167-171.
[2]SEED H B,IDRISS I M.Simplified procedure for evaluating soil liquefaction potential[J].Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1971,97(9):1 249-1 273.
[3]DAVIS R O,BERRILL J B.Energy dissipation and seismic liquefaction in sands[J].Earthquake Engin-eering and Structure Dynamics,1982,10(1):68-70.
[4]IWASAKI T.Soil liquefaction studies in Japan:state-of-the-art[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,1986,5(1):2-68.
[5]陈新民,罗国煜.地震砂土液化可能性的非确定性灰色预测方法[J].桂林工学院学报,1997,17(2):106-109.CHEN Xin-min,LUO Guo-yu.Indeterminate gray prediction method of possibility of sand liquefaction during earthquake[J].Journal of Guilin Institute of Technology,1997,17(2):106-109.
[6]刘红军,薛新华.砂土地震液化预测的人工神经网络模型[J].岩土力学,2004,25(12):1 942-1 946.LIU Hong-jun,XUE Xin-hua.Artificial neural network model for prediction of seismic liquefaction of sand soil[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2004,25(12):1942-1946.
[7]赵艳林,杨绿峰,吴敏哲.砂土液化的灰色综合评判[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):72-79.
[8]翁焕学.砂土地震液化模糊综合评判实用方法[J].岩土工程学报,1993,15(2):74-79.
[9]杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用(第三版)[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社,2001.
[2]SEED H B,IDRISS I M.Simplified procedure for evaluating soil liquefaction potential[J].Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1971,97(9):1 249-1 273.
[3]DAVIS R O,BERRILL J B.Energy dissipation and seismic liquefaction in sands[J].Earthquake Engin-eering and Structure Dynamics,1982,10(1):68-70.
[4]IWASAKI T.Soil liquefaction studies in Japan:state-of-the-art[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,1986,5(1):2-68.
[5]陈新民,罗国煜.地震砂土液化可能性的非确定性灰色预测方法[J].桂林工学院学报,1997,17(2):106-109.CHEN Xin-min,LUO Guo-yu.Indeterminate gray prediction method of possibility of sand liquefaction during earthquake[J].Journal of Guilin Institute of Technology,1997,17(2):106-109.
[6]刘红军,薛新华.砂土地震液化预测的人工神经网络模型[J].岩土力学,2004,25(12):1 942-1 946.LIU Hong-jun,XUE Xin-hua.Artificial neural network model for prediction of seismic liquefaction of sand soil[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2004,25(12):1942-1946.
[7]赵艳林,杨绿峰,吴敏哲.砂土液化的灰色综合评判[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):72-79.
[8]翁焕学.砂土地震液化模糊综合评判实用方法[J].岩土工程学报,1993,15(2):74-79.
[9]杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用(第三版)[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社,2001.
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