城市燃气系统地震次生火灾研究
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摘要
在单体建筑火灾发生率模型的基础上,根据燃气系统的特点,引入了不同燃气设备破坏等级对火灾的影响概率系数,建立了燃气系统地震次生火灾发生率的模型。利用该模型对武汉市燃气系统的火灾发生率进行了预测,并对火灾后果进行了数值分析。根据武汉市燃气系统调研和抗震评估的结果,分析得到了武汉市燃气系统在地震作用下次生火灾的概率及可能造成的灾害后果,为城市抗震防灾规划提供了依据。
This paper established the model of secondary earthquake fire incidence of gas system,it based on the model of single building fire incidence and introduced fire influence coefficient with different gas equipment according to the characteristics of gas system.The fire incidence of the gas system of Wuhan was predicted through using this model,and did the numerical analysis of fire consequence.With the survey and the seismic evaluation result of the Wuhan gas system,the secondary earthquake fire probability of gas system under earthquake and possible fire consequence was acquired through analysis,and the city planning of earthquake-resistance and hazard prevention was provide another basis.
This paper established the model of secondary earthquake fire incidence of gas system,it based on the model of single building fire incidence and introduced fire influence coefficient with different gas equipment according to the characteristics of gas system.The fire incidence of the gas system of Wuhan was predicted through using this model,and did the numerical analysis of fire consequence.With the survey and the seismic evaluation result of the Wuhan gas system,the secondary earthquake fire probability of gas system under earthquake and possible fire consequence was acquired through analysis,and the city planning of earthquake-resistance and hazard prevention was provide another basis.
引文
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[2]Su J L,Wu C C,Fan K S,et al.A Simple Method of Risk Potential Analysis for Post-earthquake Fires[J].Safety,Reliability and Risk Analysis,2009,1(4):2757-2763.
[3]黄斌,刘扬,魏立新.LPG储罐的蒸气云爆炸模拟[J].石油化工安全环保技术,2009,25(1):26-29.
[4]朱建华.爆炸波破坏/伤害效应评价[J].劳动保护科学技术,1999,19(3):38-41.
[5]马东辉.城市抗震防灾规划标准实施指南[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2008.
[6]Premkumar Thodi,Faisal Khan,Mahmoud Haddara.Risk Based Integrity Modeling of Gas Processing Facilities UsingBayesian Analysis[J].Proceedings of the 1st Annual Gas Processing Symposium.Doha:[s.n.],2009:297-306.
[7]Hiroshi Koseki,Yusaku Lwata.Tomakomai Large Scale Crude Oil Fire Experiments[J].Fire Technology,2000,36(1):24-38.
[8]杨昭,赖建波.天然气管道气体泄漏扩散过程研究[J].天然气工业,2007,27(7):97-99.
[9]许建东,林健德,曹华明,等.石化企业地震次生火灾危险性评估与对策研究[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(1):134-140.
[10]侯遵泽,李凯.城市居民区地震火灾发生率的推估方法[J].武警学院学报,2005,21(1):42-44.
[11]赵思健,任爱珠,熊利亚.城市地震次生灾害综述[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(2):57-67.
[12]王文娟,刘剑锋.危险性气体泄漏扩散数学模拟研究[J].工业安全与环保,2006,32(11):23-25.
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