澜沧—耿马地震带下一个强震活跃期的初步研究
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摘要
在震前对澜沧—耿马地震带大震复发周期为47年的研究基础上,确认滇西南地区出现了预释放加速段、一个孕震区和显著地震有序向源迁移的演变过程等这些大震孕育并进入中短期阶段的标志。并应用这些特征,对1988年11月6日的澜沧7.6级、耿马7.2级地震进行了预测,同时对澜沧—耿马地震带下一个新的强震活跃期的时间和可能发震的断层作了估计,提出了强震活跃期中大震孕育短临阶段预测可参考的思路。
On the basis of researching large earthquake recrudescence period(47 years)of Lancang—Gengma earthquake belt,we conformed that there was signs such as accelerative period release in advance,evolution process of off springing earthquake area and distinct earthquake moving toward hypocenter orderly,which showed the off springing of large earthquake entered mid-short term period.The above characteristics were used to predict Lancang 7.6 earthquake on Nov.6,1988,Gengma 7.2 earthquake,at the same time,the time and possible fault of producing earthquake of Lancang—Gengma earthquake belt was estimated.The author put forward the train of thought referred to predict strong earthquake in short-impending period of strong earthquake active period.
On the basis of researching large earthquake recrudescence period(47 years)of Lancang—Gengma earthquake belt,we conformed that there was signs such as accelerative period release in advance,evolution process of off springing earthquake area and distinct earthquake moving toward hypocenter orderly,which showed the off springing of large earthquake entered mid-short term period.The above characteristics were used to predict Lancang 7.6 earthquake on Nov.6,1988,Gengma 7.2 earthquake,at the same time,the time and possible fault of producing earthquake of Lancang—Gengma earthquake belt was estimated.The author put forward the train of thought referred to predict strong earthquake in short-impending period of strong earthquake active period.
引文
[1]石绍先,曹刻,李光泉,等.澜沧—耿马地震带大震47年复发周期及其科学意义[J].地震研究,1999,22(2):116-121.
[2]石绍先,付虹,沈斌.1988年澜沧—耿马大震的预报及再认识[J].西北地震学报,1991,13(3):35-40.
[3]刘祖荫,苏有锦,秦嘉政,等.20世纪云南地震活动性[M].北京:地震出版社,2002.
[2]石绍先,付虹,沈斌.1988年澜沧—耿马大震的预报及再认识[J].西北地震学报,1991,13(3):35-40.
[3]刘祖荫,苏有锦,秦嘉政,等.20世纪云南地震活动性[M].北京:地震出版社,2002.
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