尾矿坝地震稳定性分析的区间模型及应用
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摘要
在尾矿坝地震稳定性分析中,为适应计算参数本身具有的随机性和未确知性,将计算参数转换成盲数形式;针对尾矿坝地震稳定的极限平衡分析问题,提出一种计算尾矿坝安全系数的新方法,并将该模型应用到某尾矿坝的地震稳定性分析中。实际分析结果表明:运用盲数运算法则可以计算稳定性系数在不同取值区间内的可信度,克服了传统方法描述过于绝对化的问题,为判断尾矿坝的稳定状态提供了更全面的依据;该尾矿坝边坡安全系数低于1.3的可能性为13%,即在发生烈度为Ⅶ度的地震时该尾矿坝安全的可能性为87%,失稳的可能性较小,与实际情况相吻合;盲数理论在尾矿坝地震稳定性分析中能更好地考虑参数的不确定性,完善了尾矿坝稳定性分析理论,为尾矿坝稳定性的分析提供了一条新的途径。
The calculation parameters including the mixture of multi uncertainty were transformed to the blind data to express the uncertainty of the calculation parameters in the tailings dam engineering.The theory of blind information was applied to the rigid limiting equilibrium method for tailings dam seismic stability.A new method of safety factor was applied to the seismic stability analysis of a tailings dam.The results show that the corresponding confidence level of safety factor at different numerical value intervals can be calculated by blind data algorithms.The more comprehensive result is provided to judge the stability state of tailings dam consequently,overcoming the defect of absolutely definitive description in the traditional methods.The tailings dam slope safety factor is less than 1.3,and the corresponding possibility is 13%,indicating that the probability of the tailing dam safety is 87% in the event of seismic intensity of Ⅶ degrees,which is consistent with the actual situation.It is a new way to analyze seismic stability of tailing dams,and the result is more detailed and reliable.
The calculation parameters including the mixture of multi uncertainty were transformed to the blind data to express the uncertainty of the calculation parameters in the tailings dam engineering.The theory of blind information was applied to the rigid limiting equilibrium method for tailings dam seismic stability.A new method of safety factor was applied to the seismic stability analysis of a tailings dam.The results show that the corresponding confidence level of safety factor at different numerical value intervals can be calculated by blind data algorithms.The more comprehensive result is provided to judge the stability state of tailings dam consequently,overcoming the defect of absolutely definitive description in the traditional methods.The tailings dam slope safety factor is less than 1.3,and the corresponding possibility is 13%,indicating that the probability of the tailing dam safety is 87% in the event of seismic intensity of Ⅶ degrees,which is consistent with the actual situation.It is a new way to analyze seismic stability of tailing dams,and the result is more detailed and reliable.
引文
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[8]董陇军,李夕兵,宫凤强.开采地面沉陷预测的未确知聚类预测模型[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2008,19(2):95-99.DONG Long-jun,LI Xi-bing,GONG Feng-qiang.Comprehensive evaluation on seismic stability of slopes based on unascertained measurement[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2008,19(2):95-99.
[9]DONG Long-jun,HU Da-tao,BAI Yun-fei.Unascertained average grade model for surrounding rock classification on hydraulic tunnels[C]//2008 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology:Progress in Safety Science and Technology(Vol.VII).Beijing:Science Press,2008:2227-2231.
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[13]王贵成,曹平,林杭,等.用灰色理论确定边坡最优监测点及安全系数[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2007,38(3):574-578.WANG Gui-cheng,CAO Ping,LIN Hang,et al.Determination of optimum monitoring point of slope and safety factor using grey system theory[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2007,38(3):574-578.
[14]张世文,王红艳.影响尾矿坝安全稳定性因素分析及对策[J].矿业工程,2004,2(2):61-63.ZHANG Shi-wen,WANG Hong-yan.Analysis of factors influencing stability of tailing dam and measures for improving dams stability[J].Mining Engineering,2004,2(2):61-63.
[15]吴中如.水工建筑物安全监控理论及其应用[M].南京:河海大学出版社,1990:5-10.WU Zhong-ru.Security monitoring theory and application of hydraulic structure[M].Nanjing:Hohai University Press,1990:5-10.
[16]王飞跃.基于不确定理论的尾矿坝稳定性分析及综合评价研究[D].长沙:中南大学土木建筑学院,2008:90-120.WANG Fei-yue.Research on stability analysis and comprehensive assessment of taings dam based on the uncertainty theory[D].Changsha:Central South University.College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,2008:90-120.
[17]刘开弟,吴和琴,庞彦军,等.不确定性信息数学处理及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1999:1-190.LIU Kai-di,WU He-qin,PANG Yan-jun,et al.Mathematics processing of unascertained information and its application[M].Beijing:Science Press,1999:1-190.
[18]AQ 2006—2005.尾矿库安全技术规程[S].AQ 2006—2005.Technical specification for tailings dam safety[S].
[2]李朝甫,徐迎,谭跃虎,等.灰色系统理论在滑坡位移分析中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002(2):129-132.LI Chao-fu,XU Ying,TAN Yue-hu,et al.Application of grey system theory to analyzing displacement information of slide[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,2002(2):129-132.
[3]徐卫亚,蒋中明,石安池.基于模糊集理论的边坡稳定性分析[J].岩土工程学报,2003,25(4):409-413.XU Wei-ya,JIANG Zhong-ming,SHI An-chi.Slope stability analysis using fuzzy sets theory[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2003,25(4):409-413.
[4]周建普,李献民,王永和.黏土边坡可靠性分析方法研究[J].湖南大学学报:自然科学版,2002,29(5):92-97.ZHOU Jian-pu,LI Xian-min,WANG Yong-he.Research for method of reliability analysis for clayey soil slope[J].Journal of Hunan University:Natural Sciences,2002,29(5):92-97.
[5]董陇军,王飞跃.基于未确知测度的边坡地震稳定性综合评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2007,18(4):74-78.DONG Long-jun,WANG Fei-yue.Comprehensive evaluation on seismic stability of slopes based on unascertained measurement[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2007,18(4):74-78.
[6]DONG Long-jun,PENG Gang-jian,FU Yu-hua,et al.Unascertained measurement classifying model of goaf collapse prediction[J].Journal of Coal Science&Engineering,2008,12(2):221-224.
[7]董陇军,李夕兵,宫凤强.膨胀土胀缩等级分类中的未确知均值聚类模型及应用[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2008,39(5):1075-1080.DONG Long-jun,LI Xi-bing,GONG Feng-qiang.Unascertained average clustering method for classification of grade of shrink and expansion for expansive soils and its application[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2008,39(5):1075-1080.
[8]董陇军,李夕兵,宫凤强.开采地面沉陷预测的未确知聚类预测模型[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2008,19(2):95-99.DONG Long-jun,LI Xi-bing,GONG Feng-qiang.Comprehensive evaluation on seismic stability of slopes based on unascertained measurement[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2008,19(2):95-99.
[9]DONG Long-jun,HU Da-tao,BAI Yun-fei.Unascertained average grade model for surrounding rock classification on hydraulic tunnels[C]//2008 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology:Progress in Safety Science and Technology(Vol.VII).Beijing:Science Press,2008:2227-2231.
[10]李文秀.岩石力学中的Fuzzy数学方法[J].力学学报,1990,22(3):328-336.LI Wen-xiu.Fuzzy mathematic method in rock mechanics[J].Chinese Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics,1990,22(3):328-336.
[11]潘家铮.建筑物的抗滑稳定和滑坡分析[M].北京:水利出版社,1980:10-35.PAN Jia-zheng.Stability and slope analysis of building[M].Beijing:Water Conservancy Press,1980:10-35.
[12]张国祥,刘宝琛.潜在滑面理论及其在边坡分析中的应用[M].长沙:中南大学出版社,2003:5-20.ZHANG Guo-xiang,LIU Bao-chen.Potentially sliding surface theory and application in the slope analysis[M].Changsha:Central South University Press,2003:5-20.
[13]王贵成,曹平,林杭,等.用灰色理论确定边坡最优监测点及安全系数[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2007,38(3):574-578.WANG Gui-cheng,CAO Ping,LIN Hang,et al.Determination of optimum monitoring point of slope and safety factor using grey system theory[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2007,38(3):574-578.
[14]张世文,王红艳.影响尾矿坝安全稳定性因素分析及对策[J].矿业工程,2004,2(2):61-63.ZHANG Shi-wen,WANG Hong-yan.Analysis of factors influencing stability of tailing dam and measures for improving dams stability[J].Mining Engineering,2004,2(2):61-63.
[15]吴中如.水工建筑物安全监控理论及其应用[M].南京:河海大学出版社,1990:5-10.WU Zhong-ru.Security monitoring theory and application of hydraulic structure[M].Nanjing:Hohai University Press,1990:5-10.
[16]王飞跃.基于不确定理论的尾矿坝稳定性分析及综合评价研究[D].长沙:中南大学土木建筑学院,2008:90-120.WANG Fei-yue.Research on stability analysis and comprehensive assessment of taings dam based on the uncertainty theory[D].Changsha:Central South University.College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,2008:90-120.
[17]刘开弟,吴和琴,庞彦军,等.不确定性信息数学处理及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1999:1-190.LIU Kai-di,WU He-qin,PANG Yan-jun,et al.Mathematics processing of unascertained information and its application[M].Beijing:Science Press,1999:1-190.
[18]AQ 2006—2005.尾矿库安全技术规程[S].AQ 2006—2005.Technical specification for tailings dam safety[S].
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