常压储罐地震定量风险评价方法
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摘要
针对常压储罐完整性管理中储罐的地震风险,提出了一种定量风险评价方法。在明确场地影响震源基础上,采用Cornell地震概率危险性分析方法,确定场地每年地震发生的概率。根据常压储罐的震害特点,确定储罐失效的3种极限状态。基于储罐尺寸、材料和地震影响因子的离散性,采用蒙特卡洛方法统计地震发生时储罐可能发生的损伤概率和损伤形式,并根据不同失效模式产生的概率,以及不同失效模式下的后果差异,最终确定常压储罐的地震风险等级。利用储罐风险定量评价方法对现场罐区的地震风险进行了实例分析,通过加强对相对高风险储罐的管理,可有效地降低罐区的运行风险。
Based on understanding the influential seismic source of field,Cornell method is used to analyze the seismic hazard and to determine the seismic probability.According to the seismic damage characteristics,three limit states of storage tank failure are determined.Because of the discreteness of tank sizes,materials and seismic impact factors,Monte-Carlo method is used to calculate the failure probability and form of tank,by which the seismic risk level of atmospheric storage tank is determined.A case analysis on the seismic risk of field tankfarm is made with this method.It is considered that strengthening the management on the relatively high risk storage tank can effectively reduce the operating risk of tankfarm.
Based on understanding the influential seismic source of field,Cornell method is used to analyze the seismic hazard and to determine the seismic probability.According to the seismic damage characteristics,three limit states of storage tank failure are determined.Because of the discreteness of tank sizes,materials and seismic impact factors,Monte-Carlo method is used to calculate the failure probability and form of tank,by which the seismic risk level of atmospheric storage tank is determined.A case analysis on the seismic risk of field tankfarm is made with this method.It is considered that strengthening the management on the relatively high risk storage tank can effectively reduce the operating risk of tankfarm.
引文
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[2]郭馨艳,曾桂香,王伟,等.大型储罐结构的动力性能分析[J].郑州工业大学学报,1999,2(02):80-82.
[3]宫克勤.储罐动力模态ANSYS有限元分析[J].油气田地面工程,2004,2(310):18-19.
[4]李梁峰,林建华.大型储罐抗震能力可靠度评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,200(44):152-157.
[5]张荣花.基于可靠性理论的立式储罐地震易损性研究[D].大庆:大庆石油学院,2009.
[6]刘玉彬,张荣花,张亮,等.立式储罐地震可靠性研究[J].大连民族学院学报,2009,1(11):55-59.
[7]沈利英,沈士明.大型储罐地震动力响应研究综述[J].压力容器,2008,2(59):49-53.
[8]唐彦东,于汐,刘春平,等.天然气管道地震风险综合评估基本思路与框架[J].自然灾害学报,2009,1(83):136-138.
[9]Cornell C A.Engineering seismic hazard risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(6):1583-1606.
[10]张建国,苏多,刘英卫.机械产品可靠性分析与优化[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2008:29.
[11]戴树和,王明娥.可靠性工程及其在化工设备中的应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,1987:92.
[12]姜英明,徐达,何国富,等.SHT3026-2005钢制常压立式筒形储罐抗震鉴定标准[S].北京:中国石化出版社,2006.
[13]American Petroleum Institute.API581Risk-based inspection,base resource document[S].New York:API,2008.
[14]高志兵,杨伟林,余湘娟,等.电力工程建设场地设计地震动参数的研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2004,2(41):93-98.
[15]戴树和.工程风险分析技术[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2007:188.
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